ShivaX
1980
NATO seems unlikely to even respond to Russian aggression, but sure they’re going to invade Russia.
The people with the most nuclear weapons on the planet. We’re gonna invade them. For… reasons?
“We, the well off-countries of the world have decided to end humanity. Just because.
We get nothing out of it, but whatever.”
-no one ever
Forget it ShivaX, it’s Russiatown
Timex
1982
But, again… the reason that we invaded Iraq was because they had invaded and occupied a neighboring country. If they hadn’t done that, the 1991 gulf war would not have happened.
Libya is perhaps a better analog to what Putin fears, but that wasn’t NATO invading. That was a civil war caused by the Libyan population itself.
I think that actually IS what Putin ultimately fears, that the Russian people will decide that they do not want to be ruled by oligarchs and criminals. I feel like the Russian people themselves have been beaten into a position where they just kind of accept such things as the way it is, but with exposure to ideas from the west, the younger generation is less willing to accept it. And, ultimately, if the population of Russia decides they want change, they can’t really be stopped.
Putin’s main play here is to try and convince them that they actually DO want autocracy, because it’s “safe” and “stable”.
Lol there’s no way Putin gets executed like Hussein or Qaddafi.
One of the painful ways to hit them personally is to ban their kids from New York, London, Paris and seize their property there. The nuclear option if you will.
Even that is unlikely as it’s very drastic
Yes. When that happens (and it’s likely to happen to him or probably his immediate successor) a lot will depend on neighbors. If the Ukrainians have better standards of living (so that more Russians agree that the Western path may work for East Slavic culture), and if NATO involvement will be cheap for NATO (and it will be cheap if a lot of people inside of Russia will support it and if the infrastructure is ready) then it’s not that hard to imagine Russian elites being replaced. I don’t believe Putin cares that much about restoring Soviet glory and all that jazz. He’s a mediator and keeper of current Russian elites and his only job is to keep them alive and well. The fate of Lybia or Iraq is not that far-fetched for Russia of the future.
Russia is a nuclear power. How can anyone attack them with little fear of retaliation?
Timex
1986
I forget, is Alek actually Russian, or in Russia?
I for one find the views he’s expressing to be valuable, even if they aren’t ones I necessarily agree with, and it’s certainly more level headed than Lemon’s old crazy Russophile/Sovietphile views.
ShivaX
1987
Belarus iirc.
Edit:
And I agree, but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to push back on what I view as delusional statements.
CraigM
1988
Bingo. He brings a valuable voice as a eastern european living in close proximity to Russia. He naturally has a greater focus and closer view of the situation.
Doesn’t mean I agree with him always, but its always interesting to hear.
Yeah, was in Belarus up until recently.
Of course it’s entirely possible my mind is clouded by being more involved, or by being raised in a completely different environment. And it’s not that I’m presenting a mainstream Russian/Belarusian opinion. Plenty of people there really think the war is just around the corner, and that Putin’s goal is restoring USSR etc.
Timex
1990
I don’t think Putin really cares about the USSR, as much as he just wants to secure his own personal power and wealth. He’s gotta be one of the richest people in the world at this point, although I suspect it’s hard to calculate what he’s really worth since so much of it is shady and hidden.
You said much the same about Stalin, but I think it’s not necessarily accurate to boil dictators down to just this. Take everyone’s favorite dictator, the big H. He set himself quite deliberately on a course that resulted in him sucking cyanide in a bunker, when there were many opportunities to do otherwise. His motivations, insane though they were, seemed to be from more than personal self-interest. Now, Putin is not Hitler, but my point is that dictators can do dictatory things for fairly complex reasons. I think it’s quite possible Putin believes he is restoring Russia’s greatness on the world stage, and not just cashing in.
Guap
1992
It’s pretty unbelievable when you reflect that Russia, after having almost a civil war where tanks shot up governmwnt buildings over the fall of Communism and the rise of Democracy, fell on its face and was taken over by a KGB agent who became a narrow minded dictator.
I mean, it’s entirely believable, it’s just sad.
That’s a pretty good description of the last couple hundred years of Russian history. Not ‘sad’ as in pathetic, mind you, more as in ‘tragic.’
Aceris
1994
Most of the militarily useful bits, lets be honest here.
Russian soldiers entered Ukraine, and/or moved out of their bases within Ukraine under arms, without the permission of the Ukrainian sovereign government. That’s an invasion.
I think the sabre rattling scenario is very likely. Actually rolling tanks into Kiev would lead to a lot of economic blowback and risk for Putin, and I don’t see why he would feel the need to take that kind of risk.
You don’t think Putin is looking at getting a pliant/docile government in Kyiv, like the one there before the Revolution of Dignity?
In fairness, I don’t think anyone who knows anything about Russian history can come to the conclusion that Russians are silly to fear invasions from Europe. It’s wildly unlikely that NATO is going to invade Russia, but Russians themselves can be forgiven for being a bit twitchy about European military alliances on their borders. Europeans invaded Russia in 1941, in 1919, in 1917, in 1812, in 1807, in 1788, in 1605, and, well, you get the drift. The Soviet fear — justified or not — of an invasion from Europe was a major consideration in all of their Cold War strategies. They might very well be wrong, but if you want to understand what they are thinking and doing, you need to account for that fear.
Some of these dates you list involved the Russians as the aggressors (even if entering into the conflict to support an ally) and honestly it’s not greatly different from any other European country, Russia has no special right to being paranoid about invasion.
There are two versions of the USSR that might come to mind when you refer to it. One is the ideological fiction that’s embedded in the name: a union of socialist republics working together to further the revolution. The other is the reality of a new Russian Empire whose existence was justified by that fiction.
It’s easy to see how Russian nationalists might be very keen to restore that empire while not giving a shit about the ideology. Post-Imperial nostalgia is hardly a purely Russian thing.
Rather, Russia is not alone in having reason to fear invasion I’d say. Their situation though is somewhat different from other nations because rarely has Russia had allies of much worth (WWI is a case where their alliance with the Entente didn’t help them terribly much I’d argue, and their own actions vis a vis Austria-Hungary were as much a problem as external stuff). Right now, every other European nation of any size is part of NATO or the EU or both, and has the tacit support of the USA. Russia has…bupkis.
