19999

This channel is a history channel I stumbled upon, but they’ve also been doing Ukraine videos, and I think they are super well done. This one covers the first half of October.

20000

There was a Russian frontline reporter embedded with an artillery unit back in August, that was filmed running for their life as Ukrainian counter-batteries were returning fire within 2 minutes of the unit’s attack.

So while there is room for improvement, its definitely been working :)

20001

Russia tries to solve its logistical problems.

20002

Got a friend who’s a pretty good analyst, who says that there is no huge need to liberate Kherson as Ukraine needs to inflict casualties on the Russian, and this is the best place to do it at. Also they don’t have enough artillery to start many offensives at once. I think they have a godly amount towards kherson, and this will chew up the best of the best Russia has, and that’s pretty much a goal in itself.

Offensives are probably not a good idea right now, and they need to weather a lot of storms coming with fresh Russians swarming in. As i said earlier in this thread, expect a million more men on the front by december-January

Its already close to 800-1000 Russians casualties every day now, I have no clue how many Ukranians though.

20003

Yea, we’re aware of your prediction that any day now Putin will start to take the war seriously and show us what Russia can really do.

Meanwhile, here’s what’s actually happening right now.

20004

Cool thing about this law is that extremists are still not allowed. We are fine with giving weapons to murderers and rapists, but people who wrote a comment mentioning the word “war” are not to be trusted.

20005
20006

Another moment of our modern time where I could easily be convinced it’s real or satire. :)

20007

Still with this fantasy. All indications are that Russia did not even hit their 300k target from the partial mobilization.

20008

Not to mention if Russia were about to flood Ukraine with a million new soldiers we’d know by now. You can’t just ship them to the front overnight.

We’d be getting reports of massive troop movements from other bases, huge conscription drives, etc. and satellites would see massive convoys of military transport vehicles gathering at various bases.

20009

Only if you don’t count those who died before they finished their training.

20010

Anyway, at the moment traditional 1.5 year conscription for young people started. The Russian government promised not to send those people to any actual combat, but… They can sign the contract after 6 months of training. You might imagine that after half a year in Russian army you yourself might want to get shipped to Ukraine to end it all faster, so Russia might have lot more additional bodies on the field.

Then again, it doesn’t seem that body count is the problem. Those people don’t have even the basic equipment and are of little use.

20011

Exactly. No transport, no food, no ammunition, no weapons, no equipment, no training.

Sure, let’s have a million men walk to the front in winter.

20012

I think even more serious than the logistics failures is the lack of officers. I don’t think Russia has enough officers left for the units it has, much less staffing new formations.

20013

There are no indicators right now that Russian troops are lacking anything really. They got plenty of ammo at least, and it shows. Even in Kherson where they should have logistical problems they still have PLENTY of supplies, so no, they aren’t going to put one million man on the front, but they will
be able to rotate out troops and replace with fresh ones a lot faster. However I don’t get why people think the logistical problems are so big, they are literally fighting on their own doorstep. Pretty sure China will sell them all the trucks they ever want too.

Don’t mistake Ukranian propoganda memes for what’s actually happening, the picture, particularly in Kherson isn’t pretty, and the problems that plagued Russia aren’t going to last forever.

So if the west stops helping them, it will be difficult soon enough.

20014

There are no indicators of a million soldiers, either.

20015

Why not? You seem to be mistaking Russian propaganda memes for what’s actually happening.

20016

So where are they? We’d know if Russia suddenly received 50,000 vehicles from China.

20017

This feels like you’re saying “who are you going to believe, Russia or your lying eyes?!”

20018

Except for all the reports that continue to come in that they are lacking lots of the basics. They wouldn’t be begging Iran and North Korea for weapons and ammo if they were confident their supply was in good shape, either.

You also really like to imply that all we’re basing this stuff on and getting exposed to is Ukrainian propaganda. Except most of the news that’s posted in this very thread comes from outside analysts.