20019

There are constantly repeated indicators that newly mobilised soldiers are only guaranteed to get an assault rifle and a uniform. Armour, grenades, support weapons, working radios, medical kits, winter clothing, shelter, food and water all seem to be optional. While it’s entirely unsurprising that Russian army logistics is prioritising artillery shells over all those other things, that’s not an indicator of success.

Perhaps you haven’t been paying attention? Russian logistics is 100% tied to rail transport, with only enough truck capacity to move stuff from railheads to nearby front-line formations. The only rail line that gets anywhere close to Kherson is the one that crosses (or used to cross…) the Kerch Straits, and the line that supplies Luhansk isn’t far away from the next Ukrainian advance.

20020

Indicator #5097;

Deployed to the front line without comms, food or tents.

20021

Please stop feeding the troll.

20022

Wow, do you cry when people disagree with you HideousRex?

That’s captured Russians saying literally ANYTHING the Ukrainians want them to say…okay?
Now, firstly, there are no indicators that actual deployed troops gets rusty AK’s …but their shit is old, yes…its nowhere near Nato stuff.
What you see is mobilization areas, they might have old shit, but the first lot of 300k was dudes that had done service in the last 2 years, so little if no training required → shipped.

It doesn’t matter what YOU think, Russia thinks they are okay, they are okay…even if they are not.
Look at the recent casualties, its clear those troops are attacking and in much largers numbers, leading to larger casualties. I don’t know what I would have done myself in such a situation, it sounds like hell.

I don’t have personally any access to any Russian media or stuff, and I don’t care cause they just lie all the time. However I’ve read up a lot and listened to people like Perun and others, who have made some good statements towards whats going to happen.

I think a few things is evident.
They are not going to have logistcal issues with ammo for a while.
Russian troops may freeze this winter, but so will Ukranian…and with everyone having thermals, good luck getting some heat going…
Ukranie is loosing their old artillery rapidly, its just worn out…this will limit their ability to do anything really…this is not the case for Russia…however their artillery is shit, but have you seen Bakhmut?

As for the million men, we’ll see, but I said, their recruitment drive is open ended, there is no end to it, and while they have promised not to use the 400k conscripted in addition to the 300 right away, lets see in 6 months ya…

20023

Moving the goalposts already? You promised us 1 million new Russian soldiers on the battlefield in December.

20024

No, for the 400k fresh conscripts they recruit every year as part of their normal program…
They have promised not to use them for 6 months or so…I haven’t read all the details about that.

20025

Well, the year was not specified…:S

20026

And that was only 400 + 300. So not even a million, just 700k.

But hey, apparently high Russian casualty numbers means the Russians are winning because it means there are so many Russians now! Human waves cannot be defeated.

Good thing they’ve been replacing it with superior western equipment. And why isn’t this the case for Russia? Because they’ve maintained their old equipment so well and kept pristine replacement barrels? Oh wait, you’re just pulling this out of your ass. And I have seen Bakhmut, it looks like the battlefields from 100 years ago. So good job Russia, you can successfully fight a WW1 stalemate. Too bad Ukraine is rapidly being equipped for a 21st century war.

20027

Not use them for 6 months? Did the UA just kill like 550 in one go?

20028

No, not pulling out of ass, so far Ukraine has gotten 100 pieces of m777 artillery and some Himars…
This is fuck al really, sorry :( Russia has 12 000 pieces in storage… I think you need to get your head OUT of your own ass.

20029

I’d love to know where you got those numbers from. Largely because I can’t find consolidated numbers. But I know the US has at the very least pledged well more than 100 pieces of artillery plus 30+ Himars(more than just some). Beyond that you’ve had lots of other countries donate artillery. Including a lot of self propelled stuff.

Not to mention the quality vs quantity stuff. Ukraine can do more lasting damage with a few guided rockets from a Himars than Russia can do dropping a million shells onto Bakhmut(and still not being able to take control of it after months of trying!). Add onto that the US keeps donating Excalibur shells to Ukraine as well. That stuff makes a huge difference whether you want to believe it or not.

Seriously. Why would Russia need to be buying ammo and shells from NORTH KOREA if they were all set on their supply? Or is this just more propaganda?

20030

I disagree with most of his assessments but I don’t think he’s trolling at all. Janster seems pretty genuine in holding the opinions/thoughts that he does.

20031

No indicators!

20032

I honestly was onboard the troll train until I went back and looked over his posting history in this thread. He’s not a troll, he’s genuine. I think he’s just coming to some bad conclusions based on a number of factors. But damn do some of those posts come across as really trollish.

20033

There’s definitely some sea lioning going on, but yeah, I think he’s just wrong about some of the stuff he believes.

20034

There’s all kinds of things wrong with your statement here, but I’m just going to take this bit and point out that Ukraine has recieved approx 400 western tube artillery pieces and plenty of MLRS launchers (it’s hard to work out exactly how many systems have been delivered, but we can establish ballpark figures).

Oryx

It’s interesting seeing him gradually internalize the misinformation. I wonder where he is picking it up.

20035

Thanks for the page Oryx, I wasn’t entirely aware of all the stuff being sent, and I did google only the M777 artillery pieces.
Its a bit better but they are far off, the front is just so incredible long and wast. Without proper artillery support its very hard to advance, and I’ve been seeing a lot of stuff from Kherson that’s not all good for Ukranie.

Heck, this article is on the frontpages of one of our bigger newspapers today…

I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t think I’m wrong when I’m saying shit is about to get real this winter…and I worry about Ukraine, and I hope something diplomatic can be done but until then I hope the arms train continues.

For disclosure, I’ve had some dealing with refugees and sent a shit-ton of clothes and money to the country, I’m not a fucking Russian troll.

20036

Of course you have no evidence for that.

And also, we have plenty of indications from Russian social media channels saying exactly the same things.

And now you’re arguing against something I never wrote.

Rust is an optional extra, when all your platoon has is assault rifles. Every enemy platoon with support weapons will have fire superiority over you. You’ll be combat ineffective as soon as you meet an enemy AFV. You’ll be just as combat ineffective after three days with no water, or a week in a waterlogged trench in winter.

Ukrainian troops are actually being supplied with winter gear from all over the West. The freezing will be very one-sided.

What does this even mean?

What use is ammo if the front-line infantry haven’t eaten for a week?

But never mind getting ammo to the frontline, it’s clear that if Russia needs to acquire ammo from Belarus and North Korea, tthen they don’t have much ammo left at all.

20037

I worry about Russia

20038

Videos from Ukranian troops with Russian troops, captured, saying anything, should be taken with a grain of salt.

This is the case for any statement from any prisoner of war.

The Ukrainian videos are fun and all, but they are not serious pieces of intelligence. That information is being kept private. The stuff posted on social media is for morale.

I enjoy watching them, because I want Ukraine to destroy the invaders of their country, but I certainly don’t use them as evidence of how the war is really going or not going.