This is the thread for news, speculation, and discussion about the end of the Trump administration, whenever and however it comes to pass.
Hey, how about a pool to guess the last day of the Trump administration? I’ll take Inauguration Day, 2021
I’l take Christmas morning, please, preferably with a picturesque blanket of snow outside and a steaming mug of coffee in hand.
Thanks for specifying in the thread title that this thread is a thread. For a moment there I thought it was a banana.
At least it won’t be interesting.
I’m not naive enough to think Donnie is headed to the exit any time soon (I would also take Jan 20 2021 in the pool), but the clock is ticking and it’s worth pointing out certain milestones, even if Trump doesn’t choose to make use of them.
If Trump and the GOP were sensible - note the conditional - the period between now and January would be crucial. That’s because a Democratic House will be seated in January, and the process of installing a new VP requires a majority vote by both branches of Congress. Starting in January, the House can block any VP nomination until 2020 (and don’t say that couldn’t happen, because all the Dems need to do is cut and paste McConnell’s statement about Merrick Garland and say they’re waiting on an election.)
So between now and when the next Congress convenes, the following scenario is at least hypothetically valid and ‘easy’ for the GOP to implement: Trump resigns (claiming, say, ill health), Pence becomes president and nominates a new VP which the GOP Congress rubber stamps. Then Pence pardons Trump. (If necessary, Pence could then resign, be pardoned by the new guy, who nominates another GOP fave, etc.)
This might create a firestorm of criticism, but it would also clear the GOP’s decks well before the 2020 elections. They could put whoever they deemed their best 2020 bets in place as president and veep with plenty of time to bury Trump’s bodies and declare that our long national nightmare is over more than a year before the public’s attention turns to the election…
This, of course, will not happen. The pathology of Trump’s narcissism means he will not voluntarily leave the stage until the last possible second. Barring an actual health incident, he won’t even consider leaving until after the 2020 election.
But knowing Donnie won’t budge gives Pence a lot of power. After January, Pence is literally irreplaceable, and Donnie needs Pence to bail him out. Meaning Donnie’s rumblings about putting someone other than Pence on the ticket aren’t going to result in anything (unless Pence separately decides he needs to get off the Trump train before it crashes.)
Bonus paranoid thing to fret about over the next few weeks: While looking into it, I learned that the Constitution says that Congress should meet at least once per year, and that date shall be January 3rd unless Congress specifies a different date. So if the GOP wanted to screw over the Dems and delay them from investigating Trump they could specify that the next session of Congress begins on December 31, 2019…
Tradition!
I think Jan 20, 2021 is the least likely option. A peaceful transfer of power where Donnie follows longstanding norms and voluntarily walks off the public stage? Particularly when he has a a growing list of state level charges waiting for him? Remember Pence can’t pardon him for what’s waiting in the State of New York. The Office of the Presidency is the only thing standing between Donald Trump and a humiliating photo being perp-walked in handcuffs.
Obviously this will end with the heroes using the time stone to go back to 2016 to make sure Trump never wins the primary.
Well, don’t think it happens before then, because Republicans in the Senate won’t vote to convict. I don’t think Trump is the kind of man who will bow out and let Pence run in 2020, so if Trump loses his re-election bid, he will have lost it to a Democrat and Pence won’t have any pardon powers anyway. And it doesn’t matter if Trump doesn’t want to leave peacefully on January 20, because no part of the Federal government will treat him as the President anymore, of that I’m certain. So he’ll leave.
But if he loses the election, literally the only way he could hang onto power is if he gets the military to fortify the White House against the Secret Service. Or maybe a Ruby Ridge type situation in the White House with Qanon wackos lined up against FBI and ATF?
I dunno, even with this guy, such scenarios seem far fetched. Maybe I’m too optimistic!
The military and secret service would not obey orders like that. No one will follow him in what amounts to a coup.
Knowing how Trump treats those around him, I’m pretty sure the Secret Service will be delighted to show him the exit when the appointed day arrives.
Yeah, but pity the poor agents who get stuck as his permanent post-office security detail…
You really think even a GOP congress would seed that kind of power to Trump? As you said, I think that is being “bonus paranoid”.
It’s just an oddity I noticed. It’s not that I think it’s likely.
But then, at one point I didn’t think, “Screw your nominee, we’re not gonna even vote on him” was likely either.
Hopefully he’ll be easy to guard in his prison cell
Is it too much to hope for a bunker and a cyanide capsule?
Cede.
Someone gives him Democrat urine instead of his usual Russian hooker urine bedtime drink. He melts like the wicked witch of the west.
You got me there. I was too lazy to look it up but you are correct.
I conseed to your correction.
I mean it’s gonna be this unless he has a stroke or heart attack.