The US Economy Catch-All Thread

So it’s not a done deal? Pretty ballsy of them to publish a list of stores they’re selling off, then.

And C&S Wholesale is supposedly buying all those stores, or it’s the company in charge of liquidating everything?

This is typically required for regulator approval.

The stores aren’t closing. Closing them would still leave Kroger/Albertsons as the defacto grocery monopoly. The point of divesting them is they can tell regulators (and in this case, the judge) that competition will still flourish as another company will take those stores over.

But if C&S Wholesale buys all these stores and then struggles because they have absolutely no experience at running a nationwide chain, and then if they go into bankruptcy, well… I’m sure Kroger/Albertsons would feel real bad about that. /s

Gift link:

Inflation falls in June, rate cuts likely coming.

tl;dr

Inflation actually DECLINED -0.1% in June. That’s the first decrease since the pandemic month of May 2020.

-Gas prices declined in June
-Electricity prices declined in June
-Rent had its smallest monthly increase (0.2%) since August 2021

To be clear, they’re saying that there was actually deflation, right? Not simply a decline of inflation.

From Market Watch:

In data released on Thursday, June’s consumer-price index fell 0.1% after no change in May. It was the first drop since May 2020. The 12-month rate of inflation also slowed to 3% from 3.3%, matching the lowest level since April 2021.The narrower core CPI rate, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% for the second month in row. On a 12-month basis, the core rate slowed to 3.3% from 3.4%.“This is where it gets tricky,” said portfolio manager Karen Manna of Federated Hermes, which oversees $740 billion in assets. “Has the Fed overstayed their welcome? Are rates perhaps too restrictive if prices are coming down much faster than earlier in the year? [There are] more questions than answers from this report, which could force the Fed to act in September. Considering the recent labor weakness, the economy and the pace of deterioration will become a big part of any debate.” Separately, initial jobless-benefit claims fell by 17,000 to 222,000 in the week that ended on July 6. That’s the lowest level since May and below economists’ expectations.

I think my takeaway is that the CPI is a broad indicator of consumer markets, but isn’t reflective of “the economy” as we think of it.

Month-over-month, yes. But it looks like it’s driven by low, but still existent, inflation in things you expect to inflate plus drops in things that have volatile pricing, like energy.

Also lol at this from the bit of the article quoted

This has been true of every report for every economic indicator since 2020. We’ve been off the economic theory rails for four years and these financial reporters still don’t know how to handle it.

The market’s reaction is a massive dump. I don’t understand anything. I’m down 8% today… so far!

The stock market: is it good for the average worker (strong jobs growth, wages increase, prices not increasing) then the markets go down. Is it bad for the average worker (wages flat or down, job growth at replacement level, prices rising faster than costs, stock buybacks) then markets go up.

This inflation report is good for the average consumer, so it’s bad for your investments. The DOW is positive for the day, but SAP down.

But rate cuts!

Also keep in mind the market is an idiot. It has had rate cuts “baked in” for the past year+, which never came to fruition.

I’m still up slightly today, although my big tech stocks are down. Maybe you’re a little too heavy on the meme stocks?

The DOW is up today from close yesterday. There’s been some movement the last couple of hours, but stocks are still generally up.

If the stock market is working as intended it should be a random walk and any descriptions about the reasons for stock movements are guesses.

I think it’s probably hard to find this correlation in the numbers.

The DOW isn’t the stock market, it’s 30 stocks. The Russell 1000 and the S&P 500 are far better windvanes for “the market” and it’s getting its dick kicked in right now. Edit: for 2% values of dick-kicked-inness.

The NASDAQ has crashed down to levels not seen since, checks notes, Monday.

The S&P appears to be down less than a percent today, so I’m not really seeing the huge crash folks are talking about.

Both my retirement accounts are up today, my personal investment account is down slightly. It looks a lot like a regular market day.

I’m down around 2% today. Was up 2% yesterday, so not exactly sweating it. 2% variance on the regular. Not great, not terrible.

Seems like profit taking from how tech stocks had a massive run up recently more than a reaction to the inflation news.

Agree - that is what I’m seeing as well. SP500 and Dow are pretty close to flat. This is a pretty ordinary trading day so far.