Is there any indication on how much traction the means testing proposals are getting?
Because if not everyone who was eligible for the 600 gets the 1400, then I’m not sure how the Democrats can math their way out of that one.
Nesrie
1748
That’s all right. I was not clear that I thought the goal of being under 2% should not be, well a goal.
Alstein
1749
2% is what they’ve always targeted it as. It’s also the level where it’s very hard for the rich to lose wealth due to inflation.
A more inflationary society would actually benefit folks with debt, mostly the poor (that said this also assumes good governance, Trump’s inflation wouldn’t have done that)
Nesrie
1750
Target for inflation is not below 2% in the USA.
That’s true. The Fed and Congress should have been doing what’s necessary all along to bring inflation up to 2% and they haven’t been doing even that.
Well, it hasn’t been far off 2%, setting aside the 2008 crash.
Hmm. Then what President Biden is looking at when he says what he said must just be the most recent data, I’m guessing.
What complicates matters of course (the way I understand it) is that with such an obscene income and wealth maldistribution (and one party in Congress being totes fine with that, and looking to make it more obscene) you end up having to work through the Fed alone to try to hit that 2% rate, which makes for just more money in relatively few hands going after the same real estate, stocks etc.
Nesrie
1754
Which is good because that is the goal. But the idea of us being below 2% as somehow a good thing, as in it’s something that we want to be at or worse yet that no inflation is good… is just a misunderstanding of what the goal is, and why that’s the goal in the first place. Some inflation is not bad. That’s why we target it. We also have fairly good tools to work with when it comes to inflation. This is not the case with deflation.
Historically, the Fed tried to keep inflation below 2% and in order to do that, was comfortable with unemployment rates at and even above 4%. What’s changed recently is the growing view that the Fed really should be trying to achieve full employment, and the realization that 4% unemployment isn’t full employment. It’s not clear to me that the Fed is on board with that view — they’re still targeting 2% and 4% — but it does seem that a lot of Democrats in office have come around on it.
Nesrie
1756
Below being like 1.5%. We’re talking half a percentage, not like zero or even 1.
I’m not sure if the article by Schwab chief market strategist is available to non customers. I hope so it’s worth reading.
Here to me is the most interesting and scary factoid.
7-Year Low in Short Interest
Source: Charles Schwab, SentimenTrader, as of 2/4/2021. For illustrative purposes only.
There has been much consternation about, and criticism of, short-selling in the wake of the GME saga. However, as noted by ST, one of the main benefits of a healthy base of investors willing to sell short is that it helps keep companies honest. Instead of the rah-rah “great quarter guys” from many analysts whose companies have investment banking relationships, shorts cast a skeptical eye and are willing to ask tougher questions. Perhaps today, it’s quite important. As companies emerge from the chaos of last spring, many of them continue to lose money.
Short sellers help with price discovery and the fact that we are at 17 year low is more than a little concerning for the markets future.
Menzo
1758
Why is that? It seems like short interest goes up when people think the market is going to go down. The fact that it’s at a low point seems to indicate the market assumes the sky’s the limit.
Which is another way of stating that we have entered the period of irrational exuberance to borrow a phrase of Alan Greenspan.
or Warren Buffet " Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful ."
It is time to be fearful.
Why can’t you be greedy when others are greedy or fearful when others are fearful?
Menzo
1761
Trying to time the market is a fool’s errand. If you think you are better at it than the rest of the world, more power to you.
A question about the $600 payment to individuals in the late 2020 stimulus package: was there some limitation on who would receive it? Because I have gotten it and so has my mother, but I know a person who got the previous $1200 but hasn’t seen the $600 yet.
Oh you can, but one of the reason that Warren Buffett is the world greatest investor is because he doesn’t follow the herd.
That person should check the status of their payment on the irs site.
Thanks, @scottagibson. I’ll pass it on.
Matt_W
1766
This is interesting. Arbitrage as a lifestyle
