C’mon man, you know me. I always throw in a little hyperbole. :)
I think there are a number of reasons Microsoft is behind now, but chief among them is their game lineup. This whole thing started with the original introduction of the system and its digital only/no used games unveiling. They lost a LOT of people right away with that. They gave Sony another “$299” mic drop moment right there and Sony drilled them hard. Before that, I would have said the generation was still up for grabs. Throwing in bundled and supposedly unbundleable Kinect was like throwing dirt on their own grave.
Specs didn’t help either given the PS4 was clearly going to be a bit more powerful. Once we all saw that actually did translate into weakness for third party releases, the path was clear for most people that PS4 was the choice to get both the best third party games and a solid if unspectacular bunch of exclusives. Both systems were also clearly very close to PCs running their own OSes under the hood. They still are! So if you were a PC guy at all, you now had to consider that too. Why buy a console that’s getting all the same stuff your PC plays but at lower resolutions and with more expensive multiplayer paid every year? That’s especially true of Xbox where Microsoft has made some effort to make their few exclusives available on PC too.
Which brings us back to why exclusives, today, are so important IMO. They differentiate. You give people something that they can’t get anywhere else. That might be Uncharted 4, or Bloodborne, or Yakuza 0 or Persona 5 or The Last Guardian or even Destiny stuff first. Baseball fans… MLB is exclusive! It all adds up. It might not be that you want all of those, but even if you only want one really badly, you’re going to think about going the PS4 route instead of the Xbox one.
As you note, generational lock-in via PS Plus/Xbox Live/Friends Lists IS a thing too. All my kids’ friends are on PlayStation with a handful of exceptions, and those kids are kinda the odd men out tbh. I gave my kids an Xbox One for Christmas thinking that they would now be set to include those friends too, but it hasn’t worked out that way at all. I ask my youngest (who has the most friends on Xbox…) all the time why he hasn’t connected with those guys he couldn’t connect with before? They’re either a.) Not into Halo or b.) just not into gaming like the PlayStation friends. The hardcore guys are on PlayStation now I think. Xbox is a more casual system I think, or it’s for old guys like the people here at Qt3. It does have a certain appeal to the 40 somethings with racing, shooting and sports being a major focus…
tl;dr Microsoft needs exclusive games that sell systems. They need more than one of them.
I also think Scorpio might be best sold as a true generational shift. Tell everyone Xbox One is not long for this world. Force Sony’s hand with PS4 Pro. To do that you need Scorpio exclusive titles. I think that’s the way you start to win again even if you maintain 100% backwards compatibility with Xbox One.
…and yeah, VGChartz isn’t a good site.