For spying there are some talents that let you replace a threat card with an intel or credits card.
The remove risk card lets you improve your odds. But I too have noticed some suspicious some times strange stuff that makes me think it isn’t a 1 in 5 chance for any given card. But I use that to my advantage by choosing the -5 card or the -3 distress signal card. That one always seems to get picked. Of course it could be that it is just pure rng and my superstitions are unfounded. Knock on wood :)