Trump 2024

So it is a Trump and dump scheme?

By most accounts, they all are.

Well, they have one whale that’s posting on the site all the time. If only they could monetize his usage.

My, what a shocking turn of events.

Former President Donald Trump has sued the co-founders of Truth Social, alleging they mismanaged the social media platform early on and should therefore lose their stock in the company, which recently went public.

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So disappointing when bad faith actors let down DJT.

It’s like in Goodfellas after they pull off the big airport heist. One by one De Niro’s character has his fellow crooks eliminated to keep from paying their shares.

Matt Levine covered this in his newsletter:

While the value of a company’s cash flows probably does set a real floor under its stock price — if the stock is worth less than the cash flows, someone can buy the company and take the cash flows — it does not put a ceiling on the price. If the stock has cash flows worth $10, and you want to pay $20 for it, I can’t stop you, and I cannot directly monetize the difference: I can’t, like, sell all the stock for $20 and then buy it back for $10; I can’t force the price down to the fundamental value. If everyone just collectively decides to pay $20 for a thing with cash flows of $10, or $0, then it’s worth $20, isn’t it? There is no law of nature requiring that a stock’s price has to equal the present value of its future cash flows, or even that it has to equal the market’s collective estimate of its future cash flows. That’s just a matter of tradition, and the tradition is only like 80 years old. But the tradition could always change. Now maybe stocks will trade based on … I don’t know, something else, collective attention, online sentiment, the desire to “outwit the crowd.” Stocks can once again be pure tokens in a psychological gambling game.

Back when the Trump Media special purpose acquisition company deal was first announced in 2021, the stock jumped, and I pointed out that there was not a single dollar sign in the investor presentation. I said:

I think that a more realistic valuation method here is not to worry about cash flows at all — as Trump SPAC clearly does not — and treat the stock simply as a token of public interest in Donald Trump. My guess is that the price of Trump SPAC stock will not, for instance, be much affected by its earnings announcements, unless Trump himself does the earnings calls in which case it will go up no matter what he says. … My guess is that each day that goes by without Trump news, the stock will go down a bit. My guess is that the stock is essentially a bet on Trump’s personal newsiness, on Trump-news volatility.

I suppose that was wrong, specifically, in that the stock was down 22% today on spectacularly bad earnings, but I do think it was right in spirit. After those earnings, Trump Media is trading at only like 1,500 times revenues. It’s just not about the earnings!

One other important point from Lipschultz’s article:

The heightened valuation has made it costly and risky to bet against with short sellers facing annual financing costs of 500% to borrow, according to brokerages. That makes it the most expensive US company to bet against with over $100 million of short interest by a large margin, data from financial analytics firm S3 Partners show.

Again, fundamental value is a floor on stock price, but not a ceiling. If you think that a stock is overvalued, you can’t do anything to force it down to fair value. You can’t just short unlimited shares: You have to borrow them, and pay 500% per year to do so, and not many shares are available to borrow. But even if you could short all you wanted for free, people could keep buying them! The price could keep going up. It’s possible that the old rules of fundamental value still apply. But are you sure?

I thought it was because they couldn’t keep quiet about it and were buying too much stuff?

As far as I remember that was only one of them. He went out and bought a new cadillac right away. He was the first one killed. The rest were just killed, though perhaps I don’t remember them flashing money.

Anyway, the correlation still stands. Trump is a mob boss!

The one dude bought a fur coat for his gal (although the movie implies he was killed much later, so I doubt that was the reason for his murder) and Stubbs was killed because he left the van where the cops found it.

Note I also said, “couldn’t keep quiet about it.”

As of the moment I’m typing this, DJT stock is down 30% over the past 5 days.

I was watching a video about people over-borrowing to buy cars and the host compared it to when Trump borrowed money for Taj Mahal and did it at the crazy rate of 14%. How’d that turn out?

I feel like Americans are deeply into “instant gratification and fuck the consequences” mode. After all, it is all going to burn down soon anyway, right?

I have to admit, if I was a youngin in my 20s I could understand the appeal. Housing prices rising far faster than my income (not to mention medical and education costs), we’re still full steam ahead on pumping carbon into the air, there’s microplastics in everything… why not just say fuck it and enjoy something before everything turns into complete shit around you?

I honestly feel really bad for kids today. There are times I wonder if I will regret not having children and I still very well might later in life, but at least I don’t have to worry about them specifically. I just worry about y’all’s kids. :slight_smile:

I think sometimes folks are letting bullshit takes convince them that the world is so doomed, and everything is terrible.

But it’s not. It really isn’t. That’s just media, social and otherwise, giving you a narrative that is designed to get clicks.

The reality is that we may know more about how bad things could be, and we are certainly told about how bad things are every second of every minute of our lives now.

But it’s not actually that bad. It certainly isn’t worse than it was before.

I mean, fuck, we worry about environmentalism, which is totally rational and good, but in past decades we freaking pumped lead into everything.

The world is far from perfect… But it’s always been far from perfect. It’s generally been much, much further from perfect in the past. And somehow the world kept spinning. A lot of what is making the world feel worse now, is simply folks being so totally fixated on bad things.

Yes but decades ago the proportion of the world’s population that had the economic capacity to poison the surrounding environment was much smaller than it is now, and the population itself was much smaller. There is no “last time this happened…” with the current environmental threat.

Eh… I think you may be underestimating the impact of the lead we put into the environment, or the amount.

We used leaded fuel for a century, and basically made everyone dumber. Also caused all kinds of other health problems. Probably killed over a hundred million people through various health effects, and who knows what the costs of the cognitive impact on the people who grew up with constant exposure, other than we are certain that they were likely significant.

That stuff was going on, we just didn’t know.

It’s kind of like how war has always been horrific, but until it was televised, maybe folks didn’t really understand it quite as well.

This isn’t to say we shouldn’t make stuff better… we should.

But at the same time, if people constant doom scroll and fixate on only the bad stuff, and think there’s no hope for anything… That’s not going to actually make anything better. That’s just going to make your life miserable.

Not exactly. We started using it in 1922, and banned it for cars in 1975. It is still used in aircraft, racing cars, farm equipment, and boat engines. So it was either “half a century” or “we’ll still using it” depending on what measure you’re using.

(Humanity has used lead for all sorts of other things over the years, mind, including drinking vessels - pewter. The Romans used it in aqueducts and plumbing pipes. Though those last probably had less impact than you might think, as lime scaling quickly formed a layer between the lead and the water.)