Trump 2024

This is also why Flint’s lead pipes were no issue for many decades.

There’s still money to be made on DJT, but nothing like that frenzy on the first day. That was glorious.

I’m selling calls all the way down. I wouldn’t buy puts, the IV is so high you probably won’t make money.

While the US banned it for street vehicles 50 years ago, it was still being used in that manner up until 2021 in other parts of the world.

Same here the stock will eventually go to < $5, it is just a question of when. But since everyone with a brain knows this the puts are crazy expensive.

Normally at money call is more expensive than an at the money put, generally a modest 10-20%, sometimes 50%. Meme stocks that was reversed and so Gamestop and AMC puts were modestly more expensive than Puts

For DJT, the difference is insane. DJT closed at $40.91 Friday. A May 40 Call is trading at $4.30 a May 40 put is 13.80 over 3x more expensive. Duration risk is also really out of whack. Normally duration decays at the square root, so a 4 month options is worth twice as much as 1 month.

So the Sept option (167 days) should be worth 2x the May option (41 days) instead the Sept call option is a $5.90 and the puts are 24.50. That’s a very expensive put since best case and DJT goes to zero you only make $15.50.

I wonder if it make sense to write puts at these implied volatility (IV) levels?

Also, I’ve decide to donate 1/2 the money I make with DJT to congressional candidate. Despite the daily plea from the Biden campaign, I don’t think more money is going any difference at the presidential race but it might at Congressional level. So I’ll take recommendations.

I suggest Sherrod Brown in Ohio. He’s looking at a difficult fight.

It is certainly a critical race, but I’m not sure he needs the money. It looks like he outraised all of his Republican opponents combined. Democrats have recently had a significant fundraising advantage over Republicans. Nate Silver and other have made solid argument that money doesn’t really help certainly at the Presidential level, probably at the Senatorial level, and possibly even congressional level. I’ve wasted a lot of money, in high profile but ultimately hopeless races in Kentucky, and Ohio.

No write calls. You write puts when you think it’s going up. If you write puts on DJT you’ll wind up losing money or getting assigned stock at the strike price (and losing money).

If stays above 15.50 you actually make money, and your downside risks is limited unlike our naked calls, which have unlimited loss, say if MAGA world decides to punish the shorts. As you said the easy money was at the very beginning, the market has already priced in a lot of bad news for DJT.

I still think there is good money to be made betting Truth Social will eventually fail, just just glad I acted early, it is less of sure thing now.

Well I’m not not selling naked calls on a meme stock :)

You hate to see it:

image

Expected.

“My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state,” Trump said in a video posted on Truth, his social media platform.

I don’t think there are any winning positions for Trump. If he were to back the ban that would be a losing move in the middle. Be soft on abortion like this and lose voter enthusiasm from the single-issue abortion voters and still struggle in the middle because the rest of your party has made it clear they want the national ban.

I guess people were just tired of all the winning.

Also lots of orgs are running with “should” when he never said it. “Will” is not “should” at the end of the day.

And he’ll sign whatever the GOP puts on his desk because he doesn’t really care.

He could waffle on abortion every other day, and he won’t lose the support of zealots. As stated above, he’ll sign anything anyway, because he doesn’t give the slightest shit. Rich people will be able to get abortions at will no matter what the ‘law’ is.

OTOH:

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Yep, he just needs to name Greg Abbott as Attorney General and he will use the Comstock act to enforce a nationwide ban.

The data from before March 26th is not really meaningful; that’s the share price of the shell company that Trump’s company was merged with.

This means Trump actually shit on the desk, right?