Twilight Struggle - I'm going to play experts on YouTube. :)

I can see a Brush War headline targeting Italy, followed by Europe Scoring… 66% chance of win. What other possibilities were there?

Immediate spacing of a card after Europe Scoring in headline could’ve been an instant win.

That’s the best combo. Second best is spacing a counterintuitive card, Cultural Revolution, for a 50% chance at 3 points.

So the best possible line of play is:
(1) Headline Brush War. If it succeeds, score Europe for the win on AR1
(2) OTHERWISE, on AR1 either score Europe or Space Cultural Revolution. If he doesn’t immediately play a scoring card, he’s toast. The choice is then between whether to do Cultural Revolution first to be sneaky (so he might not see scoring danger as imminent if spacing succeeds), or do Europe first so that if he scores something immediately we have the option to keep our 3 card.

The reason Brush War was hard for me to see is I normally think of it as being for flipping/gaining/stopping dominations (or sometimes full controls), not for “piling one extra battleground on top of a region I already dominate”. So it was a situation where the normal rule of thumb turns out not to apply :-)

Meanwhile spacing was hard for me to see because of it requiring spacing a “good card”. In other words, ANOTHER situation where the normal rule of thumb doesn’t apply!

Brian

My first thought with Brush War is always “What’s the situation in Italy?”
Frustrating to see the end so close, then start slipping away!

If grabbing Italy would have flipped domination (or given me control of Europe), I would have seen it INSTANTLY! It was only, ironically, because I already dominated that I had a blind spot!

Turn 7 ideas, without checking what the opponent might still be holding.

The board is filling up. Not a lot of obvious places to put your ops, and this is an ops rich hand.

I think a headline of Junta followed by Brush War would give you a shot at South America Controlled, with ABM treaty giving you another shot to knock the US out. OAS is kind of a thorn in that regard, but I think it’s the best shot for a big point swing in your favor. Alternatively, you could coup Africa, but US is winning battlegrounds 4 to 1. Hence, you’ll need two coups to actually change the domination math. Or Central America, but I think you are practically locked out of Cuba, so that isn’t a big point differential to gain control through Mexico.

AMB also makes Asia a possibility, but it’s giving your a lot less room to maneuver, while South America is still being contested. I would, however, look to drop another op into Japan. Sure, it could be a wasted op when/if your opponent plays Mutual Defense Treaty. However, until then (if?) your opponent can only flip Japan using the China card. Similarly, you only have to spend a 3 op card to gain Japan and avoid Asian Domination. Ops are kind of at surplus now.

Without the ability to space Voice of America, that needs to become your hold card at this stage of the game. All Scoring cards are back in the deck, and he can very strategically alter the map in favor of himself given that opportunity. Eventually, you will probably be forced to play it, but that’s future Brian Reynold’s problem. Man, I don’t envy that guy.

I do think Shuttle Diplomacy is a good candidate to send to space with this hand. Right now, it wouldn’t affect domination, and getting rid of a 3 op card for eventually a point seems week, but ops are at surplus right now, and a there are points available in the space track. Staying Above 7 can put a lot of pressure on an opponent until Wargames is revealed.

Without such great headline opportunities, I might suggest headlining We Will Bury You for the points, but I think its just going to be 4 op card in this hand.

Be ready to coup 1 Op non-battleground counties in Africa. It’s what your opponent wants to do to get domination.

I’m pretty much on the same page. The card to follow up Junta will need to depend on how he deploys OAS (and how well Junta’s coup goes), but South America is a big prize and this is our best shot at it. Asia is important too but I prefer attacking (on the scoreboard) to defending. Also we have another play in Asia - if you would put one point into Japan, why not four right away! 50/50 to score before Japan card comes up, AND 50/50 that I get US/Japan anyway and can space it. Obviously there are other things that could happen in Asia in the mean time, but the rough math is 6 points x 75% success = 4.5 victory points! And even if he gets to reverse it, he has to spend the same 4 ops I had to spend to create it.

This week’s edition is up, including an in-depth analysis of what a failure I was last time!

gg!

There were two plays that serve as big lessons to me: your nuclear ban counter of the realignement from Columbia menace ; and giving up on brush war to support Kim Il Sung, the sort of move I sadly don’t do, going stupidly for the sexy event when ops are most needed.

Hope you don’t lose anything moving to your new place, Brian!

Next game kicks off today - opponent rated 2069 though I’ve seen him much higher. My record against him is 2 and 13, though I like to think I’m a stronger player in the series with the threat of public humiliation always hanging over me ;-)

Definitely watching this later today. Just wanted to chime in again and thank you for putting these together, Brian. They’re a lot of fun to watch and extremely educational to a newbie like me.

Thanks! Putting them together actually turns out to be quite educational to ME and I think it’s substantially improving my play!

My favorite Saturday morning cookie is back! Such a joy each time.

For turn 2, I was hesitating about headlining CIA, for the extra knowledge, and to attempt a coup in Pakistan (you never know!) that would also lower the defcon to protect Thailand.

For turn 2 action 1, I’d have taken Burma to call his owning or not of the Asia card, since it would have been determinant, and also let you get close to India (not like it would be possible to do anything there, being Scared). But I guess it didn’t matter in the end, since he had Decol in hand so the fate of Asia was pretty much determined from the dealing of the cards?

For opening in the next turn, looking at the grim situation and assuming he isn’t holding Defectors again, in which case all this is moot as he could headline the Asia score or Destal, I’d gamble the Five Year plan, hoping for the best. I think one shouldn’t headline Duck and Cover in this situation, as he is holding Destal and given the current state, he will have to waste his first turn to degrade the defcon as to exploit his awesome event properly and to protect his African empire. I’d use the 2 ops of Special relationship to tie Asia temporarily with Taiwan thanks to the active Formosan (I was hesitating to play a 3 ops card and reinforce Laos too, as to force his next play, but it would be like an insult to such a careful player, and I am saving that for a future play and a cause that seems less lost: the Middle East). He will then have to spend some ops filling up India, and probably reinforce Indonesia to avoid any contestation. I then would go to Tunisia before he can even Destal there. I’d use 3 points of Duck and Cover for this, putting the extra point in Egypt. Depending on the situation, I’d play then defensively De Gaulle and Suez or space one of them, who knows, probably saving the UN intervention. But who knows what would have really happened by then!
The really worrying thing is the Damocles sword of Germany. His using of a single mere influence point now and then would suffice to necessitate an immediate response, which should prove annoying and could ruin all this planning as early as his second action…

Thoughts going into Turn 3.

Duck and Cover is a typical headline in this place in the game, but I’m not sure I like it in this situation. Sure, 3 points is 3 points, but right now he doesn’t have any good coup targets for you (only Israel or South Africal?), while you’d love to coup Africa. Furthermore, if he headlines De-Stal, he can drop a point into East Germany and follow up immediately with 4 ops to flip Europe. This move looks a lot better if he doesn’t have to worry about his SA influence getting couped to you. Instead, I kind of like 5 year plan in this situation, because you know he has some great cards you want to take away. Maybe you lucky and grab Asia scoring, Destal, Nuclear Test, or something else beneficial like Marshal Plan or Nasser. Regardless, you cut his hand size so no hold card for him unless he hands over China.

However you decided to handle the headline though, this round needs to be about securing Libya, Europe, and Algiers. DeGaulle and Suez Crisis are both null events, but I think I’d rather get DeGaulle out of the deck. If you are hard up for ops, using UN with the other null event is a straight forward move, but I think I’d rather hold UN for the more dangerous soviet midwar events and instead just space Suez or DeGaulle.

Thanks!

Yeah that’s a solid move, since it protects Thailand 100% and preserves a 1 mil-op VP saving. It’s a reasonable argument that it’s worth burning CIA early for, and I’d probably have DONE that if I’d thought about it more - I tend to be pretty reflexive in dismissing CIA before turn 3 if I have any other decent headline - I’m probably too doctrinaire!

I’m glad to see folks lining up behind 5YP - I think it’s the best move. Puts a lot more pressure on him, more opportunities to make a mistake or for us to eke out an opportunity.

It’s certainly the easiest expansion area once I give up on Asia (or if I hit the ~14% chance of popping it out of his hand with 5YP), but I’m surprised folks are so willing to give up on Asia if he takes a coup AR1 instead of scoring it. I’ve got FOUR 3-ops cards available after a 5YP headline, and thanks to UN all but the fourth would be free of unwanted side-effects. In other words I could repeatedly “pay the iron price” in Indonesia and have a pretty reasonable chance to outlast him in an ops war and deny him domination. I mean there’s certainly a chance I end up eating a -8VP net for the turn, where as a “surrender” of headlining Duck and Cover would net -3VP or -5VP depending on whether he redrew one of the three wars, but I feel like there’s a strong chance for a good result. Of course once Asia is settled one way or another then the Middle East etc is the direction to head.

If I can avoid going to Algiers THIS turn then I will, as I don’t want to give him a chance to coup in to try for Africa Control, but I’d certainly want to do it if he got into France or Tunisia.

Brian

So if you were wondering how THAT went? :-)

Conjecturing on the homework assignment: I think scoring Central America was the absolute priority. Not because of the menace of your presence in Mexico, but considering his hand and what he knew, you could have been holding Junta, Brush War or, who knows, ABM treaty ;) threatening to irremediably revoke his domination by attacking the isolated Panama, while he is holding 3x1op cards in his hand. He may also have thought that Nasser would give him a good chance to tie Middle East, prior to your brilliant dual-front assault there.

For the next turn, I would not headline Junta, but Missile Envy (what are the odds of him headlining We Will Bury You and handing you Duck and Cover?), in the hope of being able to coup Africa. My thinking is that Brush Warring in Africa over Zaire later during the turn would probably be a waste even if successful, as he could just flip it back with 3ops, and we don’t have the ops to counter that. So the goal of the headline is an African Zaire coup. If it doesn’t go that way, I’ll probably play the Africa scoring card ASAP, limiting the damage, instead of trying to counter his eventual domination under the menace of a Che invasion that could kick me out of the continent through later realignments (I am sharing my traumas), or some Decolonization fiasco. Worst case scenario (let’s say, the missile envy doesn’t yield a coup, and he plays duck and cover for African domination on action 1), JFK will be there to save the day, and get rid of the problematic scoring card as well as Liberation Theology.
Otherwise, so many ways to attack the juicy South America, this should be a thrilling turn!
I had considered an opening Brush War in Brasil, then using Olympic Games to get close the Argentina that he will probably have filled by then, and finally Junta dropping into Chili to realign Argentina, but that would just let him get back right away (doh!). So I guess the real plan would be to Junta to Paraguay, realigning him out of Brazil hopefully, then attempt the 50% Brush War in Argentina? Lots of dice rolls involved, but could be rewarding.

Anyway, that fight for Asia was epic - but I would never have thought he’d prioritize the coup over reinforcing or simply scoring Asia to begin with!

Edit: there is never enough occasion to listen to the splendid Russian anthem. Thank you for your weekly efforts!

Fair enough - I’m just wondering if he had a way to mitigate the oncoming and possibly-predictable Middle East calamity. I think he probably realizes that if I’d held Junta I’d definitely have headlined it over CIA. It seems like Central America can be easily dominated later in the turn (albeit at the cost of my probable presence in Mexico). Whereas an immediate Nasser and then either score the ME for nothing or possibly play one more round of filling countries might have saved him a lot of points? I’m just not sure.

The thing about Missile Envy headlines is that while they occasionally result in a coup opportunity, they usually don’t, because of the opponent’s ability to select among the highest cards. Obviously I’d LOVE to catch him with Muslim Revolution or We Will Bury You all by themselves! But more often than not Missile Envy results in no coup & no defcon reduction. So I feel like Junta actually gives me more “protection” in Africa by guaranteeing a battleground coup that I can use to put defcon to 2.

Very good point. I need a better Brush War target.

[quote]If it doesn’t go that way, I’ll probably play the Africa scoring card ASAP, limiting the damage, instead of trying to counter his eventual domination under the menace of a Che invasion that could kick me out of the continent through later realignments (I am sharing my traumas), or some Decolonization fiasco.
[/quote]
Yes this turn probably involves trying to score Africa for zero as the most likely best case. Of course note that he may not suspect I have Africa until I play there, so since my ambitions are so low I may be able to disguise it.

I think prioritizing the coup is a reasonably safe gambit for him, because it nearly guarantees him nailing me for 2 points on ops (versus me having about a 55% chance to nail him for 2 ops). But trying to eke out that one last point instead of cashing for 5 before destalinizing was a blunder! He could have calculated that all I’d need to block domination at that point was a 3 ops and a 2-ops - it just wasn’t super obvious from the board position if you weren’t looking for it.

Thanks! This game I’m using the 1977 “revised lyrics” that removed all reference to Stalin (previous game used the 1944 Stalinist lyrics). Next time perhaps the anthem of the modern Russian republic (same tune)…

Brian

This week we ponder whether one should “grab points now” or “invest for the future”! See if you can guess where I come out ;-)

Brian

This is the kind of consideration which distinguish you experts from us, minglers! I can put myself in my opponent’s shoes, but I can’t yet put myself in his putting himself in my shoes @_@

I guess the trauma inflicted by that card is to blame with my condition: I remember only the numerous times when my adversary plays it with me holding ABM Treaty, which makes it one of my worst fears - and equally overestimating its strength when in my hand!

Going with that thinking, in the newest turn 7 homework, I would space We Will Bury you at some point during the turn to hang onto Kennedy into turn 8. I lost track of ABM treaty, so bear with me if I am going with a very unoriginal Grain Sales to Soviets headline, couping hopefully into Argentina if some proper ops are drawn, and Nigeria otherwise.
I’d play Nixon asap to be able to trigger Ussuri as my last cards of the turn (hopefully Asia won’t have been score yet), which sadly maybe a bit impaired by an UN+Lonemen play on the previous action. This would also force him to go through his hand.
If allowed, I’d play the Shah for his Muaddib-esque powers of precognition (“Could he discard the African Unrest?”).
I am a bit worried about the Central America situation. It won’t be scored or won’t degenerate this turn probably, but him residing in Panama is very unsettling. On the other hand, it is isolated, as he didn’t put a point in Costa Rica. I have trouble evaluating region values: would a coup in this condition in Panama actually be smarter than one in Argentina? Are they both worth the same amount of points if succesful (in my head, they are)? A succesful Argentina coup would threaten heavily Chili if we filled Peru though…
Damn, I love this game! Thanks for the brainteaser!

Edit: Forgot to state the obious: the NATO ops would go into a South African invasion although… I am suspecting his first action, if you were to steal his coup, would be to reply on action 1 by attempting to coup you out of Botswanna?