We’re baaaaaack! And this time running standard tournament-style rules. Soviets this time too!
Sorry about the audio pops - I obviously had some setting wrong and didn’t find out until I’d finished recording. If I removed them in post processing it made the whole thing sound weird and echoey. Will avoid for next episode!
Brian
An hour long! How am I supposed to get any work done today?
:-) Heh! Usually I can pack two turns into 45 minutes, but these two turns made me think think think!
What an opening! I’ll remember that counter to Middle East openings, but wow, did you read him right.
For the next turn, I’d headline the obvious, and sure as hell coup Panama with the Test Ban, which, as a US player, I think is one of the most hated things a Red player can do - and it also prepares menace of turning the Central America scoring card from a 2 VP event into a potential devastating threat.
I’d love to be able to UN Japan and use it to invade that country, but I don’t see any way we can make it in time to counter the Asian scoring if he doesn’t lose his mind. But I was told you should always spice things up for your opponent, so I guess my next move after the coup, assuming he doesn’t score Asia but goes through and gets into Nigeria first (in the alternative, I’d coup the Saharian States, like anybody), would be to use Comecon to un-blue Pakistan, and put the one point left into Japan, threatening a 4 ops take over with UN+Japan if he has become senile somehow. With the Red Scare bonus, he needs to play one of his 3 ops cards to counter it. Sadly, we lack enough 3 ops cards to keep doing that annoying thing, but he might not know it and maybe will play the China Card to start to secure Asia long enough to score it (2 points in Japan, 2 points in Pakistan for instance). In any case, I would try to keep some pressure on Japan until he scores Asia, while securing a bit of South America before the impending VoA disaster, taking Egypt, and maybe grabbing Tunisia, although that one is vulnerable, but he’d need to respond to the threat to Algeria, anyway, I guess. I’d space Defectors if I have got the time or if I see him spacing something succesfully, to deny him the two spacing/turn. I’d play the Five-Year Plan last, even using it to trash UN if I didn’t happen to have played it with Japan for some reason. Maybe I’d use it to grab Honduras with the 2 ops left over after all the spending needed for the previous goals if I didn’t miscalculate, because I like cozy places.
All this assuming our opponent just waits for us to do our will while just reacting, which, looking at how the game unfolded to that point, is highly unlikely, to say the least!
Edit: what a wall of text, sorry :O
Good stuff! Presuming he will more or less score Asia instantly, either in headline or AR1, I think I agree with your priorities. Panama seems like a better coup than Libya now, since it creates a new domination whereas I already dominate ME and am fairly likely to continue to unless he makes a supreme effort.
Continuing expansion in Africa and SAmerica are of course top priorities, followed by maintaining my existing dominations and maybe shoring up my weak Asia position if opportunity presents.
I have certainly considered “UN/Japan to take Japan”, but given Asia about to score this turn before I can do anything about it and then not again until at least turn 7 it seems premature for that level of commitment. If things look similar when Asia is almost back in scoring mix, it may make sense as a gamble.
Honduras seems like a pretty pricey place to spend two ops if it doesn’t presently change domination - filling up SA, Africa, and ME with little red Soviet babies seems like it will amply take up the ops pipeline!
Brian
Turn 3 Reads. I cannot see any reason to not headline Purge. I do see three questions of how you want to play this hand.
First.
Do you want to try to taken Japan and flip Asia to mutual presence (though Afghanistan would still score him a point). I really don’t see that as worth it. Getting into a huge ops when there are a ton of opportunities throughout the board? Plus, you can’t flip it in one turn, so he’d just play Asia in response. Move Defense Pack Down in your mental play order, and see if he fills it to turn the card “free to play” for you. Otherwise, just bite the bullet and play it for the ops and let him have Japan.
Second question,
which battle grounds do you want to focus on putting influence into? South America is very vulnerable to realignment right now. The Middle East could be flipped… or at least stop you from being able to pick up a domination simply by flipping Egypt (which Sadat will soon do anyways) and filling Israel up. Across the ocean, couping Panama is a tempting option to gain probable domination in Central America. Africa you already have the lead with, but couping Alegeria could open up Control of Africa (he can move on into Nigeria, but that’s a great coup target for next round). My focus would probably be to play into the Middle East, and start by couping Libya. There is a chance he is holding the scoring card this turn, and no chance of any other (except Europe, but that picture ain’t changing). Furthermore, when OPEC comes out, those battle grounds could score double. Coup Libya to start, and gain immediate domination, and even if he doesn’t have ME Scoring, he might have to respect you holding ME scoring. The other obvious coup target, Panama, might give you CA domination… which is about a 4 VP shift, 2 for domination and 2 for flipping Panama. Maybe you can Liberation theology into Mexico, for Control, but to many unknowns at this point in the game. Like using JFK to throw away CA scoring.
Speaking of “full China,” third question.
Do you want to hold onto Five Year Plan? For those who don’t know, if Soviets play that card while holding only a scoring card, the scoring card is discarded without affect. This can turn a ton of ops spent on achieving control into a round of crying as that 10 VP opportunity falls into the discard. The problem with this, though is it will force the Soviet player to play UN for the Ops, which is a weak play. Just don’t fall into amateur hour and play UN and Five Year plans for the events and realize you have no cards to play on Round 6. Otherwise, you will either have to space FYP or just have no hold card, which isn’t the worst thing. Me, I like holding onto FYP.
I would normally want to hold Five Year Plan from turn to turn, BUT right now I don’t actually see a lot of bad scoring cards coming up, except for Asia which I expect to be scored somewhere in the first five seconds of this turn (and then thankfully not again for a really long time) – because really I’m in pretty good shape in all the other regions. So I’d still hold 5YP all other things being equal, BUT…
Meanwhile with Asia already scored, there’s no need to take Japan for now, but I’m interested in the idea of keeping that opportunity open for later.
So in other words I’m thinking of using UN with US/Japan, so that either he’ll have to use 3 of his very own ops to fill Japan or else it will sit there unoccupied into late war, when I can reconsider the Asia situation. That then means not holding 5YP, so I’d probably just play it as my last card on an empty hand.
Unless things change after headline I’m thinking of couping Panama (creates new domination) vs. Middle East where I will reach domination very quickly through simple influence plays. Securing South America against a turn 4 VOA is likewise a priority, followed by expansion in Middle East and Africa.
Aaaaand… the next episode is up!
Episode #2 - Create a Little Chaos Here covers Turns 3 and 4.
Have fun out there and let me know what YOU would have done!
Brian
Episode 3 now available!
Episode #3 - No More Mr. Nice Defcon covers Turns 5 and 6.
Could YOU have done better? (probably yes!) Be careful out there ;-)
Brian
I can see a Brush War headline targeting Italy, followed by Europe Scoring… 66% chance of win. What other possibilities were there?
Immediate spacing of a card after Europe Scoring in headline could’ve been an instant win.
That’s the best combo. Second best is spacing a counterintuitive card, Cultural Revolution, for a 50% chance at 3 points.
So the best possible line of play is:
(1) Headline Brush War. If it succeeds, score Europe for the win on AR1
(2) OTHERWISE, on AR1 either score Europe or Space Cultural Revolution. If he doesn’t immediately play a scoring card, he’s toast. The choice is then between whether to do Cultural Revolution first to be sneaky (so he might not see scoring danger as imminent if spacing succeeds), or do Europe first so that if he scores something immediately we have the option to keep our 3 card.
The reason Brush War was hard for me to see is I normally think of it as being for flipping/gaining/stopping dominations (or sometimes full controls), not for “piling one extra battleground on top of a region I already dominate”. So it was a situation where the normal rule of thumb turns out not to apply :-)
Meanwhile spacing was hard for me to see because of it requiring spacing a “good card”. In other words, ANOTHER situation where the normal rule of thumb doesn’t apply!
Brian
My first thought with Brush War is always “What’s the situation in Italy?”
Frustrating to see the end so close, then start slipping away!
If grabbing Italy would have flipped domination (or given me control of Europe), I would have seen it INSTANTLY! It was only, ironically, because I already dominated that I had a blind spot!
Turn 7 ideas, without checking what the opponent might still be holding.
The board is filling up. Not a lot of obvious places to put your ops, and this is an ops rich hand.
I think a headline of Junta followed by Brush War would give you a shot at South America Controlled, with ABM treaty giving you another shot to knock the US out. OAS is kind of a thorn in that regard, but I think it’s the best shot for a big point swing in your favor. Alternatively, you could coup Africa, but US is winning battlegrounds 4 to 1. Hence, you’ll need two coups to actually change the domination math. Or Central America, but I think you are practically locked out of Cuba, so that isn’t a big point differential to gain control through Mexico.
AMB also makes Asia a possibility, but it’s giving your a lot less room to maneuver, while South America is still being contested. I would, however, look to drop another op into Japan. Sure, it could be a wasted op when/if your opponent plays Mutual Defense Treaty. However, until then (if?) your opponent can only flip Japan using the China card. Similarly, you only have to spend a 3 op card to gain Japan and avoid Asian Domination. Ops are kind of at surplus now.
Without the ability to space Voice of America, that needs to become your hold card at this stage of the game. All Scoring cards are back in the deck, and he can very strategically alter the map in favor of himself given that opportunity. Eventually, you will probably be forced to play it, but that’s future Brian Reynold’s problem. Man, I don’t envy that guy.
I do think Shuttle Diplomacy is a good candidate to send to space with this hand. Right now, it wouldn’t affect domination, and getting rid of a 3 op card for eventually a point seems week, but ops are at surplus right now, and a there are points available in the space track. Staying Above 7 can put a lot of pressure on an opponent until Wargames is revealed.
Without such great headline opportunities, I might suggest headlining We Will Bury You for the points, but I think its just going to be 4 op card in this hand.
Be ready to coup 1 Op non-battleground counties in Africa. It’s what your opponent wants to do to get domination.
I’m pretty much on the same page. The card to follow up Junta will need to depend on how he deploys OAS (and how well Junta’s coup goes), but South America is a big prize and this is our best shot at it. Asia is important too but I prefer attacking (on the scoreboard) to defending. Also we have another play in Asia - if you would put one point into Japan, why not four right away! 50/50 to score before Japan card comes up, AND 50/50 that I get US/Japan anyway and can space it. Obviously there are other things that could happen in Asia in the mean time, but the rough math is 6 points x 75% success = 4.5 victory points! And even if he gets to reverse it, he has to spend the same 4 ops I had to spend to create it.
This week’s edition is up, including an in-depth analysis of what a failure I was last time!
gg!
There were two plays that serve as big lessons to me: your nuclear ban counter of the realignement from Columbia menace ; and giving up on brush war to support Kim Il Sung, the sort of move I sadly don’t do, going stupidly for the sexy event when ops are most needed.
Hope you don’t lose anything moving to your new place, Brian!
Next game kicks off today - opponent rated 2069 though I’ve seen him much higher. My record against him is 2 and 13, though I like to think I’m a stronger player in the series with the threat of public humiliation always hanging over me ;-)
Definitely watching this later today. Just wanted to chime in again and thank you for putting these together, Brian. They’re a lot of fun to watch and extremely educational to a newbie like me.