There is a margin of error associated with the calculation of the trendline, so it is too soon to say with confidence that support for gay marriage has become the plurality position (let alone the majority one). Other polls — like a Pew survey released in March — continue to show opinion split about evenly.
However, opponents of gay marriage almost certainly no longer constitute a majority; just one of the last nine polls has shown opposition to gay marriage above 50 percent.
Great news, but i wonder how the likelyhood of the person to vote would correlate with this. We may have a majority supporting it, but the people who consistantly have the highest voter turnout most likely are on the wrong end of this (opposing).
Brett has the real problem here. Too many of one side are voting in the elections. Of course, rights shouldn’t be up to a vote anyway, but as long as they are, the demographics of thoughts of the VOTERS are more important than these polls.
There was a handy graph, but I’ve long since lost it. Basic point is correct; older you are, the more likely it is you’re a bigot. Younger you are, more likely it is you don’t give a damn who queers like to fuck.
To be fair to Brett, I think what he is saying is that when asked if people are bigots, they say no, but when it comes to voting it can be a different matter entirely.
But really it doesn’t matter. It all comes down to whatever stand the GOP thinks will get them votes. I am actually surprised more GOP don’t lean centrist on this issue, are they really worried that the evangelicals and oldies will switch to voting democrat over just this issue? I would have thought te GOP has far more to gain from the centre than they risk losing on the right.
I would disagree with your assessment here. We have the most powerful democrat in the country, President Obama, opposing gay marriage. Also in general polls have shown african americans, who are overwhelmingly liberal and democrat, also have higher rates of opposition to gay marriage for reasons I cannot begin to completely understand.
Its not just a GOP/conservative issue. Opposition to gay marriage goes across party and ideological lines.
Obama’s opposition to gay marriage is clearly a fig leaf at this point. His stance on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell and DOMA and his various comments about his “evolving” feelings on the issue point to where he sees this going.
And African Americans are somewhat socially conservative because they historically have fairly high levels of religiosity, and because the penalty for violating societal norms, particularly sexual norms has historically been artificially high due to racism.
There will always be old people, of course, but the next few generations of old people don’t care about this issue. There is a correlation between anti-gay sentiment and age when this society and its current population are taken as a snapshot in time, but age doesn’t cause anti gay sentiment.
New York may finally get a gay marriage bill passed into law. Our new governor (Cuomo) is a strong supporter, and the word is that there are apparently enough votes to get it through the legislature this session.
I hope at some point I’m one of those professors in his 50s who is going on about how advocating for gay rights was controversial back in the day, with my students thinking “geez, could women vote when he was 18?”