What a perfect lead-in :)
‘Sea level rise from ocean warming underestimated, scientists say’:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/sea-level-rise-from-ocean-warming-underestimated-scientists-say
The amount of sea level rise that comes from the oceans warming and expanding has been underestimated, and could be about twice as much as previously calculated, German researchers have said.
The findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal, suggest that increasingly severe storm surges could be anticipated as a result.
Sea level can mount due to two factors – melting ice and the thermal expansion of water as it warms. Until now, researchers have believed the oceans rose between 0.7 to 1mm per year due to thermal expansion. But a fresh look at the latest satellite data from 2002 to 2014 shows the seas are expanding about 1.4mm a year, said the study.
“To date, we have underestimated how much the heat-related expansion of the water mass in the oceans contributes to a global rise in sea level,” said co-author Jurgen Kusche, a professor at the University of Bonn.
The overall sea level rise rate is about 2.74mm per year, combining both thermal expansion and melting ice. Sea level rise was also found to vary substantially from place to place, with the rate around the Philippines “five times the global rate.”
Meanwhile, sea level on the US west coast is largely stable because there is hardly any ocean warming in that area, said the findings.
That’s going to make those monster Typhoons in that area we’ve seen lately even worse.
In other news, US Supreme court issues a ruling in favor of clean energy (warning: long.)
For any math geeks, paper and mathematical model on why conspiracy theories are, well, wrong.
(I don’t pretend to understand the math.)
The conclusion:
The grim reality is that there appears to be a cohort so ideologically invested in a belief that for whom no reasoning will shift, their convictions impervious to the intrusions of reality. In these cases, it is highly unlikely that a simple mathematical demonstration of the untenability of their belief will change their view-point. However, for the less invested such an intervention might indeed prove useful.
Oh boy, that one is bookmarked to trot out every time my father-in-law sends me some shit from Stockman or Zerohedge.
but some conspiracy theories are correct…just saying ;)
KevinC
2747
Yep. There are still idiots today that believe we landed on the moon!
Florida Mayors calling out Marco Rubio as Florida Senator to get serious:
“As mayors representing municipalities across Florida, we call on you to acknowledge the reality and urgency of climate change and to address the upcoming crisis it presents our communities,” the letter reads. “Our cities and towns are already coping with the impacts of climate change today.” Flooding at high tides, severe storm surges, and the intrusion of saltwater into municipal water supplies are all problems these cities face.
Those issues come thanks to 20cm of sea-level rise over the previous century. Studies project that the area could see up to another 30cm rise by 2050, which the mayors say "could wipe out as much as $4 billion in taxable real estate in the four-county region of Southeast Florida.
20cm over the last century? I didn’t know that. Florida definitely has a lot to lose. If this gains traction at all, it could be a game-changer for the GOP, as there is (virtually) no way they can win the Presidency if they lose Florida.
RichVR
2749
I heard a voice today, as if from the heavens. It said, “How long can you tread water?”
Timex
2750
Has the sea level actually risen by nearly 8 inches in the past century?
Looks like this is the info they are citing - based on this article:
Tidal waters worldwide have climbed an average of 8 inches (20 cm) over the past century, according to the 2014 National Climate Assessment. The two main causes are the volume of water added to oceans from glacial melt and the expansion of that water from rising sea temperatures.
Yeah, once outside the protection of the Van Allen belt you cook, so none of those astronauts would still be alive if they had landed on the moon.
In terms of rising oceans Timex, don’t forget that different places get the effects first, and those south sea islanders (kiribati and others) are already underwater with no where else to go (so far, maybe some country will take them in when their islands are completely under water). My old mans beach (in PNG) pretty much went underwater during the late 90’s, and is now always under water, whatever the time of the tide. It’s happening, it will get worse.
Razgon
2753
Denmark is getting more and more swampy areas, and our rain volume has increased by 25 percent over the last 150 year, with new records being set almost every year. While thats not just sea levels, that is part of it, and forces more and more of our small country to become swamp area and unusable for farming, living and so on.
…and Al Gore’s “doomsday clock” expires without any meaningful change from when he announced it, despite atmospheric co2 increasing even more than in worst case scenarios. http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430380/al-gore-doomsday-clock-expires-climate-change-fanatics-wrong-again
Lynch
2755
Uhm, no. That’d be a conspiracy. One cannot prove the unprovable.
…but the moon landings! (we already mentioned)…sometimes calling something ‘a conspiracy’ IS a conspiracy off itself, especially when it is about something true that would rather be kept hidden.
JonRowe
2757
Excellent scientific analysis and insight.
Timex
2758
That’s the problem with making unsubstantiated claims… because you give ammunition to people who will deny even legitimate science.
If you say that horrific things are going to happen, and then they don’t, you lose credibility.
Just to be clear, Gore was saying that extreme repercussions would be irreversible if we didn’t have it turned around by then, not that they would come to full fruition by that point. I’m not sure if there is much to back up his claim and therefore ridicule may be due, but all the dancing on the tables by climate science deniers is completely misunderstanding what he said.
JonRowe
2760
I don’t really get what that article was even about? There was 0% science in that. 100% opinion on some other non-scientist’s opinion on science.
Climateception.
Timex
2761
But even then, we’re basically turbo hosed since all of these apparently unrealized changes are coming anyway no matter what we do, so whatever.
Ultimately, I think Gore overplayed his hand, and as a result, created a largely unsupported position which is open to attack. And this ends up creating distrust of the entire side of the debate, even if such generalized distrust is unfair and misplaced.
Beyond that, the fact that it was Gore kind of ended up politicizing the entire debate, as he as a person brought a bunch of political baggage to the discussion.
I don’t really get what that article was even about? There was 0% science in that. 100% opinion on some other non-scientist’s opinion on science.
Climateception.
Yeah, I think a big problem with the discussion today is that Gore is still viewed as a face on the whole climate change debate. And I find this absurd, because frankly, Gore doesn’t know shit about any of this. His documentary was not particularly well informed. His statements do not represent the entirety of the climate change issue.
