As an above-trend hot year, 1998 served the useful purpose of allowing people to believe that warming was on pause. Now that the trend has caught up to and surpassed 1998, maybe 2016 will be a similarly above-trend year so that we can pretend for another decade that nothing’s going on.

We would be approaching the ‘it’ll be too late then’ stage, it will be amazing to watch the economical crash that is going to accompany all this, basically the whole economic fabric of western capitalism will go down, probably the biggest crash in history, and those responsible for it are those going to feel that economic loss the hardest (the rest of us poor will still be in shit-creek, just a worse more violent version).

‘Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study’:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study

The world is on track to reach dangerous levels of global warming much sooner than expected, according to new Australian research that highlights the alarming implications of rising energy demand.

University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers have developed a “global energy tracker” which predicts average world temperatures could climb 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2020.

That forecast, based on new modelling using long-term average projections on economic growth, population growth and energy use per person, points to a 2C rise by 2030.

The UN conference on climate change in Paris last year agreed to a 1.5C rise as the preferred limit to protect vulnerable island states, and a 2C rise as the absolute limit.

The new modelling is the brainchild of Ben Hankamer from UQ’s institute for molecular bioscience and Liam Wagner from Griffith University’s department of accounting, finance and economics, whose work was published in the journal Plos One on Thursday.

It is the first model to include energy use per person – which has more than doubled since 1950 – alongside economic and population growth as a way of predicting carbon emissions and corresponding temperature increases.

The researchers said the earlier than expected advance of global warming revealed by their modelling added a newfound urgency to the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.

You don’t think that’s just a bit overstating the doom-and-gloom? I’m a believer in the AGW science, and particularly that extreme weather events will continue to increase. But civilization is a very resilient beast that adapts to all kinds of conditions. Short of a “The Day After Tomorrow”-style insta-ice-age, I’m pretty sure our current society will adapt. Overall productivity and standards of living will very likely suffer, but I can’t see “the whole economic fabric of western capitalism will go down, probably the biggest crash in history” happening.

Yeah, there isn’t really anything at all to suggest that would be the result.

Zak’s had to back away from Peak Oil scare-mongering, so he needs a new idea for his destruction of Western Civilization wish fulfillment.

It’s gibberish like that which spawns skepticism - it’s hard to remain on the same “side” as obvious lunatics, especially when aside from being hyperbolic on climate change, they’re are also crazy truthers and advocates of other nutty anti-industrial conspiracy theories.

They make more serious discussion of climate change difficult because they make it easier for people to conflate the actual science with the nonsense claims of lunatics or the deliberately disingenuous analyses of pundits seeking to spur additional political action. It’s just not a serious discussion if all of the implications of a warming climate aren’t considered, including the benefits to regions - cold is far more damaging than warmth - it’s not a coincidence that colder regions are less populated. Direct deaths from cold weather, the more limited agricultural window/diversity it imposes, increased cost of subsistence living, economic development and transportation constraints, etc., are all problems that are mitigated by warmer climates.

Which is not to suggest that we should proceed with altering our planet’s naturally evolving climate (although even that may one day be preferable if the alternative is the onset of the next ice age - after all, there have already been five planetary “freezings” glaciations, and we’re technically still in the last one, which has resulted in periodic ice ages over the past 250,000 years). We just need to consider the entire equation and possible implications/reactions.

Yeah, I agree. I think some of these people have good intentions and want to “wake people up” to the problem, but exaggeration and hyperventilation has the opposite effect of making people roll their eyes and dismiss all the science as a bunch of bullshit.

The potential risks are scary enough as it is. Future conflicts over water resources in regions ravaged by new drought-like conditions, damage from coastal flooding, migrations and the resulting tension as certain regions of the globe become less arable and able to sustain current population levels, etc… all plenty scary in my book, and none of which requires the fall of Western civilization as we know it.

See the article Zak posted above, re-posted here for ease of reference:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/04/is-el-nino-or-climate-change-behind-the-run-of-record-temperatures

These tumbling temperature records are often accompanied in media reports by the caveat that we are experiencing a particularly strong El Niño - perhaps the largest in history. But should El Niño and climate change be given equal billing?

No, according to Professor Michael Mann, the director of Penn State Earth System Science Centre. He said it was possible to look back over the temperature records and assess the impact of an El Niño on global temperatures.

“A number of folks have done this,” he said, “and come to the conclusion it was responsible for less than 0.1C of the anomalous warmth. In other words, we would have set an all-time global temperature record [in 2015] even without any help from El Niño.”

Michael Mann is an embarrassing clown. I’ll retract that if he wins his lawsuit against Mark Steyn, but the case Steyn made against him seems strong.

That doesn’t mean he’s wrong on the El Nino point though.

I tend to over-egg the impact of AGW, just because by being even slightly complacent about the issue, which leads to no action/pressure to change, you will be effectively creating that scenario a few hundred years down the road (and who cares about their great grand-children?).

And if you think that 2-3 degrees warming is really not that big a deal, like maybe your summer is like in the uk with maybe average 24 degrees - 27 sounds kinda nice right? (wrong - it will be much higher than that, as we have already had examples of around the world, huge leaps from normal temps, hugely variable weather changes, extreme will become common etc).

At those scales of change everything we rely on in natures systems will unravel, you have the physical changes to sea levels which will have a huge economic impact, you either have to have a ‘Holland’ all around the globe for most of the biggest cities, walls and dykes and constant battles against coastal erosion, or move whole cities inland. Global crop harvests will shrink massively, i mean i can rattle out a list of things this thread has already covered in detail, but as most people will not care to check on all this, let’s just say complacency about AGW will lead to bad things, very many bad things on a scale we have not actually had to deal with before. You won’t have time to enjoy topping up your sun tan! It will make concerns like having Trump as President of the usa, or what ISIL is doing seem like small potatoes, it really will! ;)

In good news Canada’s new government finally seem to get it:

‘US and Canada promise to lead world to low-carbon economy’:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/us-canada-promise-lead-world-low-carbon-economy-obama-trudeau

The US and Canada declared they would help lead the transition to a low-carbon global economy on Thursday, in a dramatic role reversal for two countries once derided as climate change villains.

The shared vision unveiled by Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau ahead of a meeting at the White House commits the two countries to a range of actions to shore up the historic climate agreement reached in Paris last December.

The two leaders committed to rally G20 countries behind the accord, promote North American carbon markets, cap emissions from hundreds of thousands of existing oil and gas wells, and protect indigenous communities in a region which is warming beyond the point of no return, according to a statement from the White House.

The initiative announced on Thursday brings the US a big step closer to meeting its own Paris target by committing for the first time to cut emissions of methane - a powerful greenhouse gas responsible for about a quarter of warming - from existing oil and gas wells.

We can use our brains and technology to get around the worst impacts of AGW as it stands currently (what we have already in play in the global environments weather systems), and we can even build a thriving clean and sustainable economic future, but that means a complete transition from business as usual in terms of CO2 outputting industries and our own personal contributions to that. We have to change, now gives us that option, later much less so.

Just checked here. If the sea rises by 5 meters my house will still be above water. Have fun, check your neighborhood.

Well, our house is on a bit of a hill so I’m good to +20m. Looks like I’m go for denying climate change!

My house is OK 'til 40+ meters. Pretty much all of downtown San Jose isn’t, though, so I suspect my property values might take a bit of a dive in that scenario.

I hope that was intentional ;)

It seems like, for the US, outside of New Orleans and the delta, and a few spots like near Baltimore and New York the worst isn’t until about 3 meters. It isn’t good, but very few major population centers take too big a hit. That said who knows what tidal effects would do.

Plus most islands, like those in Virginia and the Carolinas, would be wiped out.

There’s no doubt that, as a species, we will change our world in ways that will ultimately cause cataclysmic consequences - I view managing potential climate change as just one aspect of a much broader issue of ensuring sustainability. Related topics - global warming, energy crises, pollution management and waste disposal, food production and shortages, and more recent, clean and accessible water supply - etc.

They’ve all been, and remain, pressing issues, particularly since the worldwide population hit 3 billion in the 60s. Now it’s at almost 7.5 billion. The UN predicts, despite drastically slowing birth rates in many of the most developed countries, that it’ll reach close to 11 billion by the end of the century - the bulk of which will come from growth in Africa, which is predicted to grow from just over 1 billion to 4.2 billion in that time - given the horrific crises that continent already faces, and the fact that its current use of energy is extremely modest relative to other locations (and so their needs, even without population growth, will rapidly grow if their economies develop), the consequences of having to that many additional people needing food, water, and energy - most of which will come from fossil fuels and coal in particular (which has already skyrocketed over 400% worldwide just since the year 2000) - are going to be egregious and cataclysmic beyond our current comprehension at some point.

That just can’t be prevented given those trajectories, so excuse me if I lack your faith in the abilities of an ex-high school teacher and a former social convener to save the day. Ultimately, the planet will be unable to sustain humanity’s continued population growth and there will be cataclysmic consequences - whether that’s due to a side effect of our inevitably increasing resource use (and harvesting), which alters climate and ecosystems - or due to direct conflicts over resources and cultural clashes due to differing population growth rates and expansion into new regions.

So everything we do should be oriented around long-term sustainability, which is why I don’t understand why anyone could possibly be against the development and expansion of green or alternative energy programs. I also don’t understand how anyone could think that reducing the western world’s reliance on fossil fuels could “save the world”, or why mitigation plans to deal with an inevitably changing world aren’t as prominently discussed since the world will never stop increasing its energy production needs (and use of all available resources to do so, including all remaining fossil fuels on this orb), or believe returning to solely organic or natural food production is conceivable, or believe limiting their hot water showers in Quebec City is somehow going to address unpreventable portable water shortages in the 3rd world by population growth, or believe there won’t be horrific consequences to allowing organizations and regimes that support terrorism, seek nuclear weapons, and follow savage ideologies to expand and grow stronger.

No amount of solar panels are going to stop potential conflicts that may be unavoidable on the basis of population growth and resulting proportionate resource inequalities alone. But they’re still constructive. Just not the whole picture, and since a single nuclear attack on a major city will trigger more deaths and consequences far more egregious to the humans currently on this planet than anything else, ensuring there are solar panels in Martha Vineyard is the epitome of a small potatoes concern given its negligible impact on the challenges humanity faces. But they’re still a good thing to do.

some resources on the stats above:

That is all worthy stuff Desslock, population in particular is a huge issue that compounds lots of other issues, but really once you start to see the whole food eco system collapse (and the start of that is scientifically verified, as per some of the articles in this thread), you are just on the fast track to lights out (maybe for good?). Nothing else really matters at that point. 99.9% of the worlds animal and plants have evolved over huge time frames, and while humans might be in that 0.1% that can adapt itself to changes, much of the food base we rely on can not. In particular the oceans and their food chain are right on the brink, and will be in the frontline to the effects of AGW, and land based food chains are not far behind in terms of their fragility to the pace of change we are seeing AGW cause. The world has very finite and specific places that are good natural food production zones, and AGW will cause carnage to those.

I’m honestly amazed that even if the ocean levels went up 60 meters, you’d still have sections of NYC that aren’t under water.

At 60ft most my town is under water, by my particular street is above it. Lucrative ocean front property!

Even at 60 ft, nothing happens to the Midwest! Therefore it must not be a problem. (Note for the tone-impaired - that was sarcasm.)

Even worse, 70% of the Earth’s oxygen comes form the ocean. If the oceanic food chain crashes and burns, we will have plenty to eat in the form of our suffocating friends and neighbors.