Well I don’t know about terrible, but a lot of experts told them it was a bad idea. Having said that, mistakes will happen, and we need to be okay with that as we come up with ideas for solutions.

“a new study co-authored by researchers from the University of Cambridge suggests that virtually all countries – whether rich or poor, hot or cold – will suffer economically by 2100 if the current trajectory of carbon emissions is maintained.”

Yes, what a bizarre juxtaposition of sentences.

7% by 2100 seems laughably conservative.

Edit: Setting aside my pessimism, I think the current projection for a business as usual scenario is 4.5 degrees of warming by 2100. (4 degrees if all UN Nations meet their pledges – How’s that going?) 4.5 degrees is unimaginably catastrophic.

I wonder what sort of effect this has on the business as usual projections?

An 80% increase to the rate of rain forest burning in the Amazon since last year. Maybe someone should tell Bolsonaro? Oh wait, someone did and Bolsonaro fired him for telling lies:

The rise of right wing authoritarianism (an indirect result of climate change, likely to worsen as temperatures rise) will not bring about a green revolution to save us all. (It’s also probably going to have a bad effect of GDP itself but I suppose that doesn’t count in the 7% projection.)

That is my initial reaction too. I am going to read the paper soon, reading the abstract I am very sceptical of their approach (i.e. stochastic growth model), but one of the coauthors Pesaran is a great panel data econometrician so I will reserve judgement.

Great point Steve! Why don’t you go visit the surface of Venus and report back to us how balmy the atmosphere of mostly CO2 is. By the way, you’ll be crushed by 90 Earth atmospheres and lead melts. Good luck!

Yeah, the most pressing need for “regime change” in the world is now Brazil…

We are beyond fucked at this point.

*Sigh.

If I had to guess I would say their economy’s are sound but their assumptions about climate change are flawed. I mentioned earlier about climate predictions being inherently conservative for a variety of reasons but I also think people have difficulty wrapping their minds around change on the scale we’re looking at. There’s a tendency to frame it as a variation on our current status quo rather than the beginning of an era unlike anything we’ve known. We are, for all intents and purposes, leaving the Goldilocks zone in which humans evolved.

A trade deal could be at stake! Also, the future of the human race. But a trade deal!

That Atlantic article is excellent.

Kevin Drum has been writing a bit lately on his take on why we are so inactive in the face of the climate threat:

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/08/why-climate-change-is-so-hard/

What makes climate change different from other environmental calamities isn’t that it’s bigger or farther away or difficult to see. Those things all contribute to our inaction, but the key difference is that halting climate change requires us to dramatically alter our way of life . All of us. For a very long time.

Human beings aren’t wired to do this. You aren’t doing it. I’m not doing it. Europeans aren’t doing it. No one is doing it. We’re willing to make modest changes here and there, but dramatic changes? The kind that seriously bite into our incomes and our way of life? Nope.

When I mention this to people, a common reaction is disbelief. You really think people will let the planet burn before they’ll give up their cars? That’s exactly what I think, because it’s happened many times before. Over and over, human civilizations have destroyed their environments because no one was willing to give up their piece of it. They knew exactly what they were doing but still couldn’t stop. They have overfished, overgrazed, overhunted, overmined, and overpolluted. They have literally destroyed their own lifeblood rather than make even modest changes to their lifestyles.

Given this background, he figures any plan that requires large sacrifices from people just isn’t going to fly politically. Even people who say they are concerned won’t do enough.

So the central feature he favours for climate action is really gigantic investments in R&D (like a few trillion over the next ten years) to try to accelerate cleaner energy tech and capture/sequestration options. Theory being that people aren’t willing to change their lifestyles but they are willing to throw a few more trillion on the debt pile. Also any improvement on the tech side helps the problem around the world and not just in the country where it is invented.

I think he also favours big clean-energy subsidies, but I’m not sure on that. It would seem to fit into the “spend money like water, but don’t ask for lifestyle sacrifices” model, and would also help accelerate clean energy. And we desperately need to be building all that stuff.

Overall I am thinking that the message on climate could stand to be less “You must change your lifestyle to save the planet” and more “We need to spend massive amounts of other people’s money in order to protect your lifestyle from the climate threat”.

He really picked the worst way to say this. Giving up the cars sounds nice and easy, but with no other changes would mean society would end as people could no longer get to work or get groceries.
It’s all well and good to say people should behave differently, but unless there are alternatives (even if slightly inconvenient), it’s not going to happen. And capital would rather gives us Uber. Ryanair and Hyperloops, so it’s time the biggest actor in the economy does its job.

I think Drum is right – there is no chance that the majority of the world’s population will dramatically change their energy consumption habits. Not voluntarily. If technology doesn’t save us, we’re doomed.

I still believe it’s worth trying to change behaviors. Drum could be wrong, and the stakes are so high you try anything that might work. Eventually, though, we either perfect some kind of sequestration tech or we starve, drown or suffocate.

I still think the “we’re all going to suffocate” argument actually works.

I mean works as in “holy shit we have to do something” gets under your skin sort of way.

I hope you’re right, but I think most people will still react with “This is a problem for future people… right now, I am a lot more worried about…”