Very good episode, and great setup for the next one with the tribe virtually split 5-5.
Congratulations to Russell for delivering the goods, though he’s been helped by terrible decision-making on the Galu side. Worst majority in the game’s history?
I have to agree that this episode goes down as a classic. Russell has managed to find two hidden immunity idols based purely on deductive reasoning and determination.
He almost managed to pull off a FLAWLESS VICTORY but Laura managed to win immunity yet again. Actually, the footage seemed to show Russell being a bit smug and overconfident when he snagged his second bag and it didn’t seem he was trying to bring it home quickly and let Laura beat him out. If he had managed to keep Laura from winning immunity, he would have been ablte to pull off his evict Laura plan.
They’ve shown him saying before he doesn’t necessarily actually want to get Laura out though because he knows Shambo will back him against Laura at the drop of a hat, which she might not do against the other Galu tribe members.
Fantastic season though, particularly given how lopsided it has been.
I’m really glad Russell has backed off the “burn my teammates socks” type strategies he was trying in the first episode.
I’ve been waiting since they first introduced the immunity idols for someone to metagame their possible placements and find them pro-actively, and it’s hilarious to see him pull it off so effectively. Of course the years where they bury them near the landmarks would have made this much harder to pull off.
Classic episode as Russell builds his legend as one of the great Survivor players. Snagging the immunity idol just put back in play without a clue and playing it to save himself was an absolute classic.
The trouble is my earlier analysis is probably still right. Russell burned through too many of his own tribe, so that even after his last bit of luck, followed by his absolute coup, still leaves the lines drawn as five on his side, but six on the other. He needs to either subvert another to his cause (and the cat is out of the bag on him being a schemer), or has to both find the idol again and give it to the right person. Spying, subterfuge, misleading, mind games and gambits should be in store for next week.
But we’re down to ten players now, aren’t we? Four ex-Foa Foa and six ex-Galu, with Shambo the tying vote and potential mole. Ordinarily, I’d count on her to screw up any strategy, but her acting at that last tribal was solid, from the cheeky “10-9-8” vote to her gape-mouthed “surprise” over Russell’s idol.
I’m hoping either Russell or Natalie make it to the end. She looks great in that bikini, killing that rat.
As Enduro has pointed out, they are down to 10, with Russell having established some real rapport with Shambo. He now needs to count on his own Foa Foa members to be smart enough to understand that they must stick together or they will be taken out. This deadlocks them at 5 aside. It should be an interesting episode next week.
Must have miscounted. Well, then at five-five anything goes! Russell does make the game. Shambo is certainly a key. Normally, I’d be saying she is slitting her own throat in the long run, with the other tribe voting her out as soon as the rest of her tribe is picked off, but she really has nothing to lose since she’s high on the chopping block of her own tribe. Really key week coming up as one voting block or the other is going to be reduced past half. Everyone should be brushing up on the fire-making skills if the vote is tied.
Russel is only playing for comedic relief now. Even if he does win every immunity challenge until the end, and he needs to, what chance does he have in the jury? Zero. None. No one will vote for him. I doubt even Shambo will.
I disagree. You never know what a jury will do and Russel can be pretty persuasive. I don’t think he stands a chance because I don’t think he’ll win the immunities that he will need, but that’s another thing.
Not necessarily. I always appreciate the guy who went out, played the game hard, took chances, and made things happen. I never want to see the guy flying under the radar, playing it safe and cowardly, win. And plenty of people on previous juries have felt the same way. If one of Russell’s tribemates made it to the final with him, who’s going to get the vote? Now, if Russell expresses his contempt publicly and shoots himself in the foot, that’s one thing, but at the moment he certainly deserves a measure of respect by the remaining players, whether they are for or against him.
Russell’s big problem is that he is revealed as the scheming guy who makes things happen. It’s painting a rather large target on him. The trick is going to be when his alliance feels safe and not in need of him - that’s when someone will try to put together a blindside on him.
Russel can win if he’s honest with the jury. It’s terrible watching an obvious villain trying to look like a saint in the finals because they never buy it. There will always be people that take what he’s done personally and will never vote for him anyway but the fact is if Russel makes it that far after all the shit he’s pulled he deserves the win.
All he has to do is convince them.
Agreed that the game can be won that way. And Russell is certainly delusional enough in his own prowess that he can pull it off as well as that gay kid a few seasons ago who was absolutely convinced that he was a mastermind. He was nothing of the kind, in my opinion, but hey, he knew how to butter up a jury and make them think they were sooooo smart and he had to be extra brilliant to outsmart them all.
I’m surprised that people in this forum are taken in by Russell too though. Oh well, we’ll just agree to disagree. I think the most impressive thing he’s done is to be really good at finding hidden immunity idols. His actual “smart” play has been very questionable. Burning your teammates socks? If he hadn’t done that, maybe they wouldn’t have started their immunity losing streak. Going to everyone on the tribe to promise that he’ll go to the final two with them? Marginally smart at first, but completely dumb later when the tribes merged and he did that to everyone on the Galu tribe, showing them all the Immunity idol, assuring them all that they were the only person he was showing them to. He’s a bit of an idiot, but luckily he has Natalie on his team, who was brilliant a couple of weeks ago when she went over to the women and told them about Eric, which sealed his fate.
As far as strategic play is concerned, I’ve been most impressed by Natalie this season, followed by Danger Dave, who also seems pretty self aware and has been doing well on Galu, though they haven’t really been put in many difficult situations yet.
I give Russell full credit for great strategic play till now. How can you not? He’s played people, as well as those idols, perfectly to this point.
I won’t give anyone who does not win ‘great all time’ status. This is the 19th season right? That means that to even be in the top 18, you had to have won one. Assuming he doesn’t win, he’d be my choice for 20th best player of all time(best non winner).
I do think he has a decent outside shot. If, and that’s a big if, he can get to the final two then I can see him beating Monica/Shambo/Jaison. I can see him having a hard time beating Laura/Dave. The rest would be tossups, depending on who gets mad at who, between now and the end.
The only reason I’d call it an outside shot is because he is in the smaller subgroup. Even if he were to score the immunity idol again, he still needs a lot of help. I can see him telling Monica “See what happened to Kelly? That could be you next time if you don’t join my group”. He needs stuff like that to go his way.
He (and his tribe) really need to get rid of Dave to have a prayer in making it much further at all, but I do believe getting rid of Laura is a higher priority. Even more so now that she’s shown herself to be quite the competition in challenges.
Death…
Taxes…
and yes, Russell already found the hidden immunity idol yet again!
Well, that certainly was an interesting episode. Eveerybody knows that there is a new idol in play. Everybody knows that Russell has successfully found two previous idols with no clues. As far as we could see, when the winning crew went off to reward, those back at the camp lollygagged around. Did nobody think to hunt around for the idol?
Russell showed himself to be a quick thinker. Leading Dave on the wild goose chase was brilliant.
And finally, the votes were clearly going to be a 5-5 saw-off. And Monika manages to spike things by cooking up a plan to draw votes away from Laura and aim them at John. Which results in a flip at the end as Mr. Rocket Scientist clearly can see that the Monika - Laura pairing will do him no good.
So how does a merge go down at 8-4 numbers advantage wind up this way? Amazing.
I suspect that although this agrivated John his change of vote was much more practical. There was going to be a winning and losing side after this council. John’s choice was to either have a 50% chance to be on the winning side, or a 100% chance of being on the winning side. Once he saw that Russel’s team did have the 5 they needed and there weren’t any tricks in store he made the jump and joined the winning side.
Although he is definitely low man on the totem pole on the winning side he is trusting in the fact that he’s good at strategy and hasn’t pissed anyone off on that side to help him out. Unlike Shambo’s situation, where she is on the right side but they are just using her for votes, I think John has a chance to remain once they start shredding members.
I expect everyone on the losing side to start buddying up to Russel’s team after this council. Most have already started (Dave congradulated the team on their blindside last week). Monica seems the most likely to go next since her lie about voting for John has ruined her credibility.
Having survived in an impossible situation makes Mick, Russel, Jaison and Natalie very loyal to each other. I will be sad when they eventually turn on each other. Im hoping they hold off as long as possible and it ends up being just them in the final four.
In a normal game I would say this is the point where the 5 have to break the team of four. But Shambo is such a pawn that I dont think its going to happen. Plus after casting in with the weaker side of battle she feels loyal for having won with them.
I hope Russel ends up winning it. If he gets to the final 2 I have no doubt they will pick him. He certainly deserves it for his performance so far.
If nothing else, he’s got a good shot at fan favourite just for the entertainment value he has brought to this season.
Good episode, topped off with a hint of Evil Russell’s return next week. Underdog Russell is all well and good, but we were promised a villain, dammit.
Mind, the previews have been especially misleading this season, but in what other context can you put, “Bird go free!”
Absolutely.
This indeed was the day or reckoning. Russel’s alliance stood firm, while Laura’s tried a gambit that back-fired. By putting John at risk without bothering to ask him if it was okay, Laura finally kicked in John’s instincts for self-preservation and he abandoned old tribal alliances to play an individual game. And credit him for waiting to see if everything shaped up as the five-five tie - he did, but then wasn’t willing to risk random chance of taking the fall.
Now, whether that works out in the long run of merely ends up leaving him as the last or second to last of his tribe remains to be seen, but he at least has bought time and room to maneuver within the (currently) victorious alliance.
Credit Russell for not falling for the gambit, and understanding that Shambo was the key and refusing the offer to go after John. He knew he was better off with a secure five votes rather than taking a chance on some 5-4-1 scenario that would have been entirely dependent on Monika being honest. Then he talked with John to make sure John knew that he had been put at risk. I’ve always suspected that Russell would be the one who would encompass his own downfall by trying to get too clever (telling way too many people about having the idol while simultaneously telling them all that they were the only one to know, for example), but Laura beat him to it.
Though I did see in the previews for next week that Russell is back to his Captain Chaos ways and is doing random acts of sabotage - he can still slit his own throat with a moment of carelessness.