I don’t implicitly trust anyone. If Israeli does shitty things I call them on that, and they often do shitty things, they are even doing shitty things now, in the current conflict, but that does not excuse Hamas from escalating things to this point and basically refusing to negotiate. I think it says a lot about you that you would trust Hamas at all, since they have not demonstrated their ability to keep to any past agreement. By all appearances they happily used the last 18 months to build up an arsenal of rockets they were just itching to let loose.

If I were steering the Israeli ship of state, I would negotiate a truce with Hamas. Truces with Hamas have historically been the best way to reduce the amount of rocket fire. A long term settlement would have to be made to reduce that to zero, but I think it’s possible.

Hamas has no interest at all in a long term settlement, because they are backed entirely by foreign money that never wants to see this conflict end. Their raison d’etre is to attack Israel, and that is the reason they receive funding. If they made a long term settlement with Israel their funding would dry up and another militant group would spring up to replace them. No… what we will see here is a truce, a buildup, a war, a truce, a buildup, a war ad nauseum.

Hamas are effectively required by their paymasters to be insane. The people of Gaza should revolt against them.

And you consider that reliable? Er…

How is the Israeli government an entity that can be treated with if parts of the ruling coalition just nix any part of deals they don’t like?

Like any other democratic coalition, perhaps?

Soapy - Unfortunately, they do quite well at keeping weapons out the hands of the people NOT in Jihadii organisations. And the only backers (aside from the cash from Israel, but let’s not go there) left are, well, Qatar.

I’m not so sure about a Palestinian state being called into being if it wasn’t for HAMAS. HAMAS sure isn’t helping, but there isn’t enough land left on the West Bank to form a contiguous viable Palestinian state that would satisfy anyone. If Israel withdrew most of its settlements from the West Bank, then it might work, but right now one of the problems is that Israel has successfully created a situation where any Palestinian state that’s likely won’t satisfy the Palestinians.

I didn’t propose that Luttwak’s theory be applied in the form of an indiscriminate carpet bombing. Indeed, I acknowledged in my original statement that, “I see many compelling instrumental [emphasis in the original] reasons for Israel to limits [sic] the scope and fury of its response.” My concern with war overall is that the West no longer believes that collateral damage is acceptable, which is a hell of a way to try to go about exerting pressure on an adversary.

Short of that approach, which is impossible for a number of reasons that I trust I needn’t articulate, Israel is left with the mere hope that the Palestinians will never figure out how to overcome Iron Dome. The reason that the peace process stalled is that the Israelis developed an almost completely effective strategy for eliminating suicide bombings: the Wall.

Anti-semitism refers to prejudice against people of a certain ethno-religious background. You are trying to draw a linkage, I think, between negative perceptions of the Israeli government or electorate and of lack of sympathy for its diplomatic position.

And just who, exactly, are “the weak” in this equation? The Israeli populace? The Palestinian populace?

We live in a culture that loves to gnash its teeth over every death. The same culture that hesitated to arm Bosnians while Serbia executed a successful campaign of ethnic cleansing in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

It is frankly ludicrous to abjure violence. We do it in Western society because we live safely in the care of school administrators and armed constabularies. In other words, we endorse “sanctioned” violence against “deviant” outliers.

By holding back, the parties to a conflict simply create more opportunities for the innocent to suffer.

Walzer’s Just and Unjust Wars is a terrible mess of a book that never bothers to sell the idea of the higher morality on which his prescriptions are based. That’s not culture, it’s oversight.

I’m not arguing that we should all live as Morgenthau prescribes; simply that Realist theory has valid lessons to teach us about war-making.

“Bad states” don’t pursue campaigns of ethnic cleansing simply because they’re run by bad men – they do it because that tactic has enjoyed proven success in places like the former Yugoslavia and Darfur. Khartoum didn’t accede to the independence of Southern Sudan because it was the right thing to do; it acceded because the South fought a successful guerilla war.

You believe that HAMAS would discontinue violence if Israel relied on a purely defensive strategy?

The pathway to long-term legitimacy and peace for Israel is either to (A) do everything it can to stand up a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza and hope that, if there is sufficient success, the world will discount the legitimacy of Palestinian maximalist claims, or to (B) abandon the concept of the unitary Jewish state and accept a multi-ethnic democracy.

The real issue unfolding here is that people who think that Israel is to blame don’t believe it has a right to defend itself anyway – they want to see concessions, not “defensive maneuvers.”

The Palestinians think that it is ok to launch rockets directly into civilian population centers, with the express purpose of killing civilians.

That makes the Palestinians the bad guys.

The thing that makes Hamas’ strategy extra insane is that it serves only to strengthen the Israeli right wing and right wing policies.

Timex? It makes the Islamists the bad guys. Please, that’s as a bad as generalising to “Israelis”. (Fatah is…not pleasant, but you /can/ deal with them)

Soapy - Absolutely. Trying to hit the places the left-wing Israelis live, on the coastal plain, with rockets? Repeatedly? Sigh.
To be fair, Hamas has also pissed off almost every Arab country in the area…including every Egyptian regime. they seem to have a “talent” for it.

http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/

I think Islamists are the problem, in this case, and every where else they are terrorizing and murdering civilians.

I really don’t know what to take from that other than the fact you read a book.

You believe that HAMAS would discontinue violence if Israel relied on a purely defensive strategy?

Violence and repression won’t turn the residents of Gaza against Hamas. They may resent the rocket firing, but they will blame Tel Aviv for the casualties. There isn’t a military solution, unless Tel Aviv wants to revive ban. The Hudna remains Israel’s best option. Peace and time may moderate passions. Continued violence will simply stoke the rage.

That assumes that peace is desirable.

The airstrikes and mortar fire are a particularly moronic form of collective punishment. As policy, the IDF uses their firepower to bludgeon civil society into submission. This has been true for years and it shows no sign of changing.

That does not excuse the actions of Hamas or the other militant factions - but the situation is certainly muddy, and there is little in the way of moral high ground.

In the fifties and sixties the secular nationalists held sway. FATAH is a leftover from that movement for example. In the way of these things, these groups overpromised and underdelivered. In time, disillusioned Arabs turned to Islamists for the answer. Thus rose Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Islamists brought their own baggage, but it would be incorrect to blame them for the fighting. They are simply another response to an old grievance.

The July War.

Israel can be defeated, it can be humbled. Indeed, violence appears to be the only viable option to many in the region. Only violence will compel Israel to bend. This is how Hamas thinks, and it’s not altogether wrong.

Man, sorry man.
Hamas is not just some group of crazies. They are who the Palestinians actually chose to represent them.
You don’t get to elect terrorists, running on a platform of terrorism, and then wash your hands of what happens.

The Palestinians themselves are the bad guys at this point. If they don’t want to be the bad guys, then they shouldn’t elect terrorists as their leaders.

I don’t think it’s as easy as you think it is to wage a precision war when your enemy is shooting from populated areas. Hamas has intentionally done this to make it harder for Israel to strike back. I am not sure what you think would have been the best course for Israel. What I can say is that Israel could have done a better job, but Hamas is certainly the reason why Israel is shooting into populated areas in the first place.

Walzer is the foremost modern scholar of Just War Theory. His landmark book is notable for its assumption that the reader accepts that proportionality in conflict is inherently good. The issue with such an approach is that power relationships are (A) based on signals, meaning that it is possible to unintentionally signal weakness and invite further violence by “taking the high road” and forbearing, and (B) sometimes, overwhelming response will end the conflict more quickly, reducing the overall number of times that the combatants clash, and therefore, potentially, the net loss to both parties.

Please answer my original question. Do you believe that HAMAS would abandon rocket attacks if Israel suspended its campaign unilaterally?

I don’t disagree that Israel is over a barrel. I don’t disagree that violence short of an occupation and reconstruction is simply going to stoke the fire. I do disagree that proportional response is something to be desired on its own merits. I also don’t believe that Israel gains anything vis-a-vis HAMAS when it applies proportional response; rather, it may gain something from the international community, but even that is not assured.

What, exactly, do you think war is if not the bludgeoning of civil society into submission? Most of those who defend HAMAS do so on grounds that the Israeli populace is complicit in a system of repression. According to this theory, by inflicting pain on the Israelis, HAMAS moves the needle toward concessions in the interest of a Palestinian state. It’s the same with Israel: by inflicting pain on the Palestinians, Israeli signals that HAMAS is a sub-optimal choice.

Both images of the conflict are based on the premise that a people is responsible, directly or indirectly, for its leadership – either because they voted, or else because they have not revolted.

You talk about lack of moral high ground on the one hand, but indicate sympathy for the “original sin” analysis of the conflict on the other. According to that read on the situation, logic tells us that the correct policy prescription is for Israel to immediately make unilateral concessions, either by withdrawing to the Green Line or initiating procedures to dissolve itself as a state. This, of course, is rendered extremely problematic by the fact that HAMAS is abominable even by the standards of most armed independence movements. It is also doubtful that Palestinians would be all that happy with a two-state solution since I don’t see a practical model for implementation in which Israel consents to allow them the full trapping of sovereignty when neither HAMAS nor Fatah can enforce a monopoly on violence. The proposition that Israel even negotiate with HAMAS gives legitimacy to terrorism. Indeed, if Israelis honestly believe that HAMAS will not be satisfied by even a unitary state, but will instead seek to eliminate all Jews from the Holy Land, what then?

I’m also curious why you take the Palestinian claim to the West Bank and Gaza more seriously than you do, say, those of the Cherokee on land in Georgia. As discussed earlier, the big question for any observer to the conflict is whether they take a sort of Wilsonian view that every people deserves its own homeland, or what might be called a more realist view in which Israel legitimize itself through successful conquest – the global standard before 1945.

http://gwynnedyer.com/tag/israel/

The always worth reading Gwynne Dyer. If what he says is true then this war is a desperation ploy by Hamas. Elected on social platforms they cannot sustain without foreign funding, they were about to become steadily less popular in Gaza. Nothing like a good war to a) shore up their Palestinian support with some extra Israel-hate, b) drum up some more foreign funding by showing their willingness to fight and die for the cause and to show the brutality of the hated Zionists. For their part Netanyahu and the right wing Israeli parties are only too happy to oblige, and the left wing has already thrown up their hands in despair and given Netanyahu a blank cheque… but even in the absence of the right wing willingness to enagge in a disproportionate response, a more measured Israeli response probably would have suited Hamas just as well (and maybe was more what they were expecting based on past conflicts); I think though that the proposition of rockets landing in Tel Aviv has generated an Israeli overreaction that has broad popular support.

The two extremes feed upon each other to grow stronger. A pox on both their houses.

Side note: In the Western tradition, Just War Theory has been deeply concerned with proportionality since Augustine, at least. Walzer isn’t so much asking his reader to accept a dubious premise as he is engaging (and building on) a long-standing ethical concern.

That is historical revisionism of the highest order. (For starters, they’re very different from each other, and rose in different circumstances in different times…)
And your acceptance of groups which, by tactic, aim for civilians…

Timex - You missed out the bit where they seized power by force in Gaza.

Courteous D - Not Western. Christian.

Well, IL is correct in that FATEH sure as hell overpromised and underdelivered. The secular, usually leftist, nationalist movements among the Palestinians all failed miserably to do much more than get themselves wrecked by first people like the Jordanians, and then by the Israelis. I find it fairly easy to believe that at least some of the attraction of HAMAS has to be because everything else the Palestinians have tried has sort of fizzled. I’m sure there’s more of course, but that is one factor certainly.

No, Western JWT has drawn (heavily, in many respects) from Christian thinking, but it isn’t an exclusively Christian domain. There’s a discrete, identifiable history of Catholic Just War doctrine, sure.

That’s why everyone who was of voting age in the US in 1968 is considered a crook.

I wasn’t speaking to the history of Just War Theory. I was clarifying why I invoked the example of Walzer. It has been some time since I last read Walzer (I am tempted to sell his awful volume whenever I walk past it in my library), but as I recall, he leaves out the critical, “By the way, I am assuming that you believe in God, and that you accept at face value that there is morality inherent in forbearance on all occasions.”

By that logic, the United States was wrong to bomb German and Japanese cities during the Second World War.

War is about fighting nations, which are proxies for society. War is not just about dealing with bad men.

lol. Not at all. The thing is, we weren’t fighting all the people, but the government. The people were casualties, and those will come, but to call them all “bad guys” because of the action of their government is a little silly. That’s the whole thing behind proportionality - is the loss of life worth the gain? It doesn’t require the loss of life to be labelled “bad guys.” Doing so just strips them of individuality, which isn’t fair to them and can be detrimental to both sides of a confrontation. Decisions to deploy bombs, rockets, or other not-perfectly-precise munitions should always be done with a full, unfettered view of the possible and likely loss of life. Naming every corpse a “bad guy” cheapens the loss of life. They were brothers, sisters, children, best friends, grandparents, teachers, doctors, artists. If their loss - not just the loss of bad guys - is worth the gain, then you make the call to go ahead with it. Hiroshima and Nagasaki directly helped bring about the end of the Pacific campaign, and arguably saved more lives (and property) than they destroyed. Good calls (assuming that supposition was true - I’m not a military historian, so I don’t feel entirely qualified to make a judgement and stand by it no matter what).

Neither am I passing judgement on Israel’s actions - their goals are well stated: take out the rocket launchers and destroy the tunnels. People are going to die in order to bring that about - both enemy combatants AND innocent civilians who may have even voted for another party. Again, that bit of information doesn’t mean the military actions are evil or unethical on its own, but neither does it mean everyone who dies is a bad guy.