What should have israel done instead?

Yeah, I don’t think you need to resort to conspiracies to explain 10/7. It’s not the first time that a professional military has been beaten when it is attacked by surprise, on a holiday, when the professionals thought they were safe

Washington_Crossing_the_Delaware_by_Emanuel_Leutze,_MMA-NYC,_1851

It’s a question of malice and incompetence, and I think the incompetence is pretty well-established. In the lead-up to October 7th Netanyahu was trying to provoke some kind of uprising in the West Bank, probably because he wanted some kind of “justification” for further annexation, so he made sure no one had eyes on Gaza, even as the reports from Gaza were pretty alarming. They were just ignored.

Add to that the incompetence of believing the security wall would actually work in an attack, which exists in extension of the incompetence of economically starving Gaza, so it becomes the best possible breeding ground for extremists, and it does feel like the incompetence goes pretty far back.

Now we’re faced with the incompetence of thinking that the Arab countries are gonna bail out Netanyahu, or that Israel is gonna fight another insurgency in Gaza, which they apparently plan to do using tactics that have already failed several times over.

I’m not saying that the people behind it aren’t evil, but they are certainly pretty stupid as well.

Nope, which is why I phrased it as I did. Well, other than the persistent behavior of the Israeli government, which seems to revel in the destruction it is causing and also seems to be quite happy to extend its duration.

Wouldn’t be the first time for the IDF, either; see 1973. Which actually though is one reason why I find it at least reasonable to question the official narrative, as the IDF took immense pains after the October War to make sure something like that didn’t happen again. But that’s not my main thought, really. The issues I have don’t center on the surprise of 10/7, but rather on how well the events fit what many in the Israeli leadership clearly want to happen. My main point really is that I am increasingly coming to believe that the Israeli government would, and is capable of, deliberately killing its own citizens to establish a casus belli sufficient to carry out its policy of ethnic cleansing. Whether or not the attacks took advantage of existing problems in the IDF or not.

Most probably, but as they say, why not both? I am usually a firm believer in never ascribing to conspiracy what one could blame on incompetence, and there is certainly plenty of that going on here. But clearly Netanyahu’s faction has jumped on this attack and used it to further goals that without it would have been difficult to implement. That could well be a dark form of serendipity, of course, but I can’t rule out intent. Not any more.

The kicker though is that ultimately it’s Hamas calling the shots I think. If there was any sort of connivance by the the Israelis, directly or indirectly, it seems in the end it will backfire because whatever gains they make will come at the expense of Israel’s global reputation and its ability to work with other nations in a productive fashion. Hamas has managed to create a situation where sympathy for Israel rapidly turned into the opposite. s

If there was any sort of connivance with Israel, it was Israel getting played, even if they thought they were playing Hamas.

But yes, in the end, this is mostly my frustration with what Israel has become. I wouldn’t posit these ideas as a narrative I’d defend to the death, but the fact that I can even work through a scenario where these things are plausible to me tells me how far we’ve come from the days when I thought so much better of Israel and the IDF.

Ok, well then it’s tin foil hat territory, as you suggested.

It’s basically impossible for such a conspiracy to have occurred without someone coming out and leaking about it. There’s no way you could have such a thing take place and successfully keep it under wraps.

There’s plenty of proof of the current Israeli government considering Hamas as a useful tool to keep around, so, not a huge leap of faith from that to thinking they’re not gonna do much so why overprepare, but really, what can you do when you live next to a rabid dog?

And then the dog bit far more than they were expecting.

That seems quite possible.

One would think, but again, it would not take any active conspiracy, just a willingness to not pursue leads or follow up on intel.

In any event, it doesn’t matter much. The current actions of the Israeli government are bad enough no matter how you slice it. My main thing is that for the first time I actually can see them doing some of the things that a few years ago I’d have considered impossible.

Yeah, I don’t think it’s a secret that the Israel government wanted to keep Hamas in power in Gaza to the extent of actually making sure they’re well funded. They wanted the danger of Hamas attacks for the domestic political value, so it’s not even a case of turning a blind eye to that danger. Not so much a secret conspiracy as actual, open policy, married to hubris and a dash of incompetence.

Yeah, it’s not an easy time to be a zionist - referring to myself, I don’t want to put you in the same boat if you’re not :)

I think the damage caused by the Netanyahu government, which is really just the culmination of damage that Likud has been doing since the turn of the millennium (at least, right?) leaves me wondering where Israel goes from here.

Where is the voice of reason? There are plenty of intellectuals, former intelligence chiefs and former military chiefs who call the madness what it is, but the political opposition to the madness is a jumbled mess to say the least. I don’t know that it’s within their capability to turn it around.

This is one of the crazy things about political leadership, both generally and specifically in this case. There is no long-term thinking about where this all ends up. A future with Greater Israel locked in a deadly embrace with an occupied underclass is not a future anyone would wish for, not even a Likud government. A future with a Greater Israel where non-Jews outnumber Jews and have the full rights of citizenship is not a future that a Likud government would wish for. What does that leave for Likud, besides ethnic cleansing or worse?

I still think it’s insane that the guy who funded Hamas and shit the bed utterly on 10/7 basically gets to be in charge until he says otherwise.

If people didn’t start having conspiracy theory-like thoughts about it I’d be concerned.

I doubt there’s no long term thinking. There is. Here it is:
All the Palestinians fuck off somewhere else.

It’s not much, and it lacks in details, but it’s something.

Except they are all locked in. So the only somewhere else left is dead. But if that’s their actual plan, they need to pick up the pace on killing people, not slow it down. I’m not saying Netanyahu & Co are actually upset about the number of Gazans they’ve killed or anything, just that if their plan was to actually depopulate the territory they’ve failed at that one too. For me the lens of this all being Netanyahu doing whatever he can to stay in power without any actual long term planning about anything else still seems most correct. The stuff in Gaza has kind of run out of steam so now maybe he can stay in power by going after Hezbollah.

Yes, that was the ‘ethnic cleansing’ part. But that’s long-term thinking, they eradicate the Palestinian population one way or other and then it’s all smooth sailing for them with Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, etc? Good neighbors all?

:person_shrugging:

I sure hope the navy held on to that Mission Accomplished banner!

Contrast that with this:

Reuters reported last month that between the start of Gaza war last October and the end of June, the US has transferred at least 14,000 of the MK-84 2,000lb bombs, 6,500 500lb bombs, 3,000 Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 air-dropped small-diameter bombs and other munitions.

It’s like “We sent them all this stuff to kill civilians with, but in our defense, we also built a rickety pier that did absolutely nothing”

I’ve also noticed that Netanyahu hasn’t publicly bitch-slapped Biden for at least a week, which is very unlike him, so I assume something occurred behind closed doors.

It could just be that the US promised to send them more weapons if he promised to stop hurting the President, which is an unbelievably miserable thought.

Its also possible he prefers Trump and much like the Republicans doesnt want to put pressure on Biden.

Yeah, you could be right. Why waste a torpedo on a sinking ship. Except it’s Netanyahu, so I absolutely could see him torpedoing a sinking ship. He’s not a very nice or smart man.

And he has gotten away with pretty much everything else so far. The US tells him to deliver aid, he tells them to go pound sand. The US says don’t go into Rafah, he goes into Rafah.

Maybe the US should try telling him to not stop the war, because at least then there’s a chance he’ll do it just out of spite.

If an alien came down to earth and didn’t know the score, they might conclude that the Prime Minister of Israel had more power than the President of the United States.

https://www.reddit.com/r/internationalpolitics/comments/1e2b4p7/children_in_pieces_israeli_raids_on_gaza_safe/

The Israelis did a double tap strike when they targeted the building that supposedly contained Mohammed Deif - first they dropped something that looked bigger even than a 2000 pound bomb, and then once emergency crews arrived, they bombed them too.

That’s obviously something we know from Ukraine, where the Russians do the same thing, so it made me curious how common this tactic was in the Israeli military.

Which brought me to this article, which is by +972 magazine, which usually means that what I’m about to read is going to be horrifying and depressing. And it was, because they’ve been doing it for over a decade.