And this is why Enceladus is my favourite thing in the solar system.
Elon Musk will be giving his Mars presentation shortly
Live stream and VOD here:
jpinard
1864
All the other intelligent civs are cetaceans and birds. It takes a long time to build a radio telescope with flippers and beaks lol.
JD
1865
Havenāt watched the Q&A section, but did they say anything about the radiation problem?
Pod
1866
I donāt think Iāve ever watched Elon Musk give a speech. I assumed he would be a slick businessman with a well rehearsed speech, but instead he appears to just be winging it!
Strollen
1867
Nope, that his normal speaking and presentation style. Sometimes when he does a product role like the Model III rollout he is more polished. But he is an engineer not a marketing guy like Jobs.
Of course, Jobs couldnāt explain the physics of everything.
Strollen
1868
A Verge reporter asked the question about radiation and keeping people self.
He said there will be a small amount of shielding and the engine will face the sun. But overall while radiation will probably result in modest increase in cancer it is a pretty small risk. Lots of people bring it up but it, but the risk is exaggerated.
My thoughts are that for the first million people, your chances of dying of Mars environmental risk are easily and order of magnitude higher than cancer risk.
Strollen
1870
If you can do it in Kerbal, Elon can do it in real life.
Pod
1873
The Q&A was terrible. Full of complete non-questions mostly using the air-time to market their products.
One question was close to mine (about the Mars cycler), however. I would have asked about why they chose that particular ship design. e.g. why not use a more modular one so that only parts of it land, and if required return, rather than the entire thing going down and the entire thing coming back from Mars surface?
And what are their thoughts about water as a propellant?
Yeah, I just tried to watch the Q&A tonight and turned it off halfway through the guy asking the SECOND QUESTION. Holy crap, who let these assholes in there? Epic moment in history and people are talking about poop at burning man and marketing their books and shit. Why does humanity suck so much?
Ya, I agree. I would have thought my caveat that 1/2 the population has an IQ under 100,might not have applied at a space conference.`
I thought he talked about water as propellant and why it was inferior but donāt remember the answer.
To me the disadvantage of modular design is re-usabliity. Letās say you leave a fuel tank and engines on Mars. You then have to add them back on at earth. I read Buzz Aldrins book about going to Mars, and while there is a lot of scientific elegance to his theory (at least I think, it is clear that Buzz is approaching the problem as a scientific one how can I get the most payload to more with lowest amount of thrust/weight. Whereas Elon is looking at as business problem, what is most economical way of getting a one million people to Mars.
Here are some encouraging calculations. I spent most of my career at Intel, so I looked at most any engineering problem from the perspective of Mooreās law. Since 1969, the number of transistors on Intel chips has increased at the rate of 48% compounded per year. Or almost exactly what the revised Moores law say the number of transistors doubled every two years. Costs have followed almost exactly. The growth rate has been slowing recently but was higher in the beginning.
Musk needs a $10/billion to $200K cost reduction or 50,0000 times to get his making Mars affordable. If Musk can drive down space costs as Intel and the semiconductor industry did chips prices, he can achieve this in 26-27 years,.
It is hard to get great numbers on launch cost, but it does look like weāve seen at least an order of magnitude drop in cost per KG to LEO since SpaceX enter the market which would put them at Mooreās law speeds.
Remember that SpaceX rocket that exploded recently on the launchpad?
The investigation is getting weird
kerzain
1877
Oh, come on. At this point I think whoever suggested they shouldnāt be investigating their own failures is on to something.
Maybe it was corporate sabotage, or maybe theyāre grasping at straws.
Pod
1878
I like that they had to appeal to the public for their crappy quality videos. it implies they spend billions developing the rocket, but only spend 500 on a single camera recording it taking off. Iād have thought in this day and age there would be cameras on every surface possible.
Still canāt rule out a Dyson Swarm!
Blue Origin has a livestream of their inflight escape test in four minutes. First inflight escape test since Little Joe II in 1966.
Aaand after a 10-minute hold, the countdown restarts at 15 minutes.