Who will be the first to leave this console generation?

I don’t know about everyone else but I’m done with this console generation and would like to see the next one start up sooner than later or at least have some sort of shake out to reduce the over all stupidity.

Microsoft’s Xbox 360, while delivering gaming goodness, is a noisey fragile little flower.
Sony’s PS3 is a glorified disc player that sometimes lets you play games, depending on which sku you get.
Nintendo’s Wii. The worlds most sought after dust collector. The vast majority of Wii games are one step from Vtech trash. The gamecube was a better gaming platform.

I completely agree with you on the consoles, but I don’t think the generation is over quite yet.

That said, I think Microsoft will be first again.

I thought this generation was supposed to last longer than the previous ones due to higher costs and diminishing returns on technology.

IMO, we won’t see a new console from any of the above until 2010 at the earliest. That isn’t counting HW revs of the existing consoles, like a smaller PS3 (or 360), more storage, or new Wii peripherals (maybe a new Wiimote).

I can’t imagine new consoles coming along, like Xemu said, until 2010, and I picked MS as the likely mover. I see the Wii as too huge a deal for Nintendo to drop in favour of something new earlier than that, and the PS3 has a dual-market as Blu-ray player and game console (and the games are only now starting to take off).

MS totally, I halfway feel like thats the lack of spring update this year for the 360, they are done with it.

I think Xemu’s 2010 estimate is about right. If things stay the same for Sony (lagging behind the 360) then I see them jumping first. MS has no reason to jump if they have the worldwide HD lead. Nintendo’s the market leader so they’ll jump last.

When will the next round of handhelds be seen? 2015? The PSP sales have jumped in Japan and I can’t imagine Nintendo making new hardware until Sony moves or the DS has completely flatlined.

How about an option for “none”? Or do you mean, which will jump to the next generation first? If it’s the latter, then I’d say Msoft will be the first with a new console out.

If I had to make any guesses it would be:

Microsoft will reveal their next console in 2011 with a target release date of holiday 2012. This time around Microsoft will actually TEST their console to make sure it doesn’t break. Unfortunately, during all this extensive hardware testing they’ll have forgotten to include any sort of reliable disc drive and we’ll be subject to download massively large games. Get ready for the term “Pre-Download.” YAY!

Sony will attempt to keep up with Microsoft in order to not get left behind again and attempt to release their console in 2012 as well, however, they’ll suffer from missing pieces and an under-developed console and as such it’ll get pushed back to Spring of 2013, which actually means that the console will get pushed back to HOLIDAY 2013, with Europe getting the console in 2014… probably around March… if they’re lucky.

Nintendo will announce a new Wii in 2010 with a release in 2011. This Wii will have a hard drive and HD graphics, as well as, a CPU and GPU that rivals the existing 360 and PS3 in order to shut people up about the piss poor graphics that some developers have created. Unfortunately, Nintendo will still refuse to streamline or simplify their online at all and we will, once again, be stuck with a billion freakin friend codes and no voice chat… hurray!

I love the consoles. :)

I voted Nintendo, but I’m guessing Microsoft and Nintendo will announce their next consoles around the same time. Both, however, will be preceded by the Dreamcast 2 ;).

There is so much potential left untapped in these consoles… I could see them being around for another good five years.

I think GTA4 was just the tip of the iceberg of what they are capable of.

Agree completely. Also keep in mind that all three of these consoles are capable of firmware updates that doesn’t improve graphics or CPU performance, but can certainly add new features. Given the extraordinary investment that comes with hardware cycle, I see all three of these consoles lasting a lot longer than most people here suspect.

Is it ludicrous at this point to speculate that the 360 will be MS’s last entry? They had a huge lead over Sony in simply being on the market and in having quality games available, and at this point I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that by the end of this generation Sony will have them beaten again, with the Wii still much further ahead of both. It will be a better showing than the Xbox/PS2 contest, but I wonder what MS’s breaking point is.

I don’t think they’re ready to concede the living room, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re ready to get out of the console business by the end of this round and go back to making Windows appliance-y sort of things, with maybe some games involved. Like, a set top box primarily for media, with gaming capabilities about in line with what XBLA offers right now, and probably controllers with heavy Wii influence.

MS is desperate to squeeze profits out of this generation before beginning the expensive parts of the cycle of the next one, Sony is somewhat delayed by the late launch and slow, difficult development needed and will probably have to carry that delay forward, and Nintendo tends to hang on to successful products with only minor tweaks. So…I have no idea.

I would say yes, it is. Microsoft wants their piece of what will become the biggest entertainment medium in history, and they’re willing to spend a lot more time and money than 9 years getting it.

This console generation can last as long as it likes. Never been a better time in gaming, IMO.

That’s an interesting analysis, and they sure have seemed a little less Xbox-motivated than they have in the past - but I’d imagine they already have their strategy mapped out for the next generation. That might be why we’ve heard so much less from them recently.

They have the resources to stick in for a long fight, even if they trip all over themselves the entire way there. I doubt they’ll get out for good, and I really hope they don’t, as I like to see the competition.

Hopefully, though, the next generation the competition manifests itself more in providing the games, and less in out-hardcoring one another.

See that wouldn’t surprise me at all, I’m just not at the point where I’m expecting that behavior anymore. Don’t they have shareholders to keep happy? The Xbox was sort of accepted as necessary to get their foot in the door even in areas where it could be considered a failure (I don’t know when or if it was actually profitable, but it wasn’t like it was raking in dough from day one in any scenario). So I can see writing that off, but to come into round two with basically every advantage and then blow it with the hardware debacle and getting your ass kicked by something no one saw coming (the Wii), and at the end of the day still not even beat your only “real” rival (PS3, this part’s speculative), I have no problem imagining someone saying enough is enough. Get out of the real console business and make the Windows version of AppleTV + Xbox Live Arcade.

If someone high up enough got it in his head, then, yes, that might happen - but I think they’ve tied the Xbox up in their company strategy and even if they were to significantly scale back their release next iteration I don’t see them getting out completely. Even if they’re only breaking even on the Xbox, it can be seen as significant to their business goals.

Far-out Speculation: seems like they’ve been much more successful with the release of the Zune, in terms of quality and competition, and yet they’ve only managed to barely chip into the iPod market. Apple still owns the general identity of the portable music.

So which is their more successful product?

Wholly agreed on both points. Msoft isn’t going anywhere in terms of gaming. They may not be beating the pants off of Nintendo, but do they need to in order to stay in the game? They’re making bookoo bucks in gaming, I am sure they’re here to stay.

Right on. The phrase ‘winning the console war’ is pretty lame. Who’s winning the television war? The stereo war? The couch war?