Don’t blame me - I’m just telling you what their position was as I perceived it on the Sunday shows. To their credit, it seems to be working - my entirely apolitical mother thinks that the universe at large doesn’t approve of this health care thingamawhoosits and, as such, does not approve of it.
Maybe you shouldn’t be using punditry as a way to judge the will of the people.
I’m not judging the will of the people - I’m judging the will of the people who are representing that Democrats aren’t following the will of America. They’re not claiming that Democrats are universally wrong - they’re only implying it. They’re claiming that Democrats are contrary to the public on health care. In general, I consider polling to be about as useful as preventative rectal thermometry.
As compared to what? It may only be a snapshot, but it’s a lot better than the echo chamber that is the media on determining what people think, and in the absence of questionable wording and any kind of “priming,” (it’s been shown, for example, that questioning a man’s masculinity before asking questions can make him lean more conservative) are fairly accurate in depicting what people think. They don’t always predict elections very well, largely because of how much momentum can shift over time, but 538 has shown us a lot about what you can do with those numbers anyway.
At any rate, the public was for the bill before the Public Option was taken out, and even while the bill was unpopular, public opinion was only against it if you combined the people who thought it should be more liberal and people who thought it was too liberal - so it’s pretty misleading for the Republicans to claim the will of the people were with them on this.
But…the people who are claiming that most people are against HCR are using polls too, aren’t they? Why do you listen to them in the first place if you don’t like polls?
I think this is the correct answer. Organizations and individuals on both sides are guilty of commonly referring to the other side’s stances and members as “extremist”, or other terms that are as unflattering as possible. It’s a lie used by both sides to take advantage of that “us vs. them” mentality that feeds on the lack of respect that each side has for the other. And this sort of rhetoric isn’t just prevalent in the health care debate. For instance, Planned Parenthood and NOW spokespeople routinely refer to all pro-life proponents as “extremists”, even though polls consistently show that 35-45% of people polled favor making abortion illegal in certain situations. It’s as if both sides LIKE having someone they can hate.
I’m not listening to them - I’m simply clarifying for jpinard’s benefit why Republicans are saying what they are saying. They will cite polls as evidence, and they will be correct…sort of. Without paying any regard to why, in general, if you phrase the question right, a majority of the American public wishes that the entire health care debate would go die in a fire somewhere. That is what Republicans are talking about. It has nothing to do with which majority was elected and the general lean of public attitude along the libero-conservativistic axis of alignment - it’s a very specific talking point that they are currently flogging about health care.
For what it’s worth, even conservative commentators on Fox were talking this weekend about how politicians need to shut the hell up about what people think at this point. I forget which one said it, but his general position was, it’s okay for pundits to tell the people what they already know they think, but it’s time for politicians to shut up about it. Either Brit Hume is afraid that Mitch McConnell is coming from his job or the Republican Party may have actually flogged this dolphin a little too hard.
This is really simple: both sides will use poll numbers as a talking point to “what America wants” when they can. It’ pretty simple to look at poll numbers - Rasmussen’s latest, March 21st, was 41% of likely voters are in favor of the bill, 54% are opposed, and those numbers have been pretty steady. It is simple to grab that and say “you guys have done all of this to pass a bill that most Americans oppose” and have some factual basis. WHY people oppose it is a different question. Even if you say some oppose it because it doesn’t go far enough, they still oppose it so it is valid to count them in the number who are against the bill that was passed.
That’s what political parties do. The Democrats can read the polls and they should expect this (hell, they’d do the same thing if the shoe was on the other foot) and be prepared to counter it.
I didn’t see 54% opposed, unless you count apathetic as opposed…
“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll, taken Friday and Saturday nights, shows that 41% of likely voters favor the health care plan. Fifty-four percent (54%) are opposed. These figures have barely budged in recent months.”
Also:
"
Monday, March 29, 2010
One week after the House of Representatives passed the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, 54% of the nation’s likely voters still favor repealing the new law. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 42% oppose repeal.
Those figures are virtually unchanged from last week. They include 44% who Strongly Favor repeal and 34% who Strongly Oppose it.
Repeal is favored by 84% of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated voters. Among white Democrats, 25% favor repeal, but only one percent (1%) of black Democrats share that view.
Only 17% of all voters believe the plan will achieve one of its primary goals and reduce the cost of health care. Most (55%) believe it will have the opposite affect and increase the cost of care.
Forty-nine percent (49%) believe the new law will reduce the quality of care. Sixty percent (60%) believe it will increase the federal budget deficit. Those numbers are consistent with expectations before the bill was passed.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “the overriding tone of the data is that passage of the legislation has not changed anything. Those who opposed the bill before it passed now want to repeal it. Those who supported the legislation oppose repealing it.”
It ain’t what we want to hear, but it gives Republicans what they want for political arguing purposes.
Why not link to the poll itself? I don’t need cross-talk when I’m looking for the by-answer breakdown.
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The point was that the results are what the Republicans can use. It is always a losing argument in our sound byte America to rebut “54% of Americans oppose so and so” with “yeah, but the details of the question are this.”
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I did link to the questions, poll, demographic breakdown.
Oh, this poll, ok.
There was another poll which actually had detailed questions and shows a much different situation.
On the one hand:
“Gee those republicans are stupid. Don’t they realize that the healthcare plan is basically just a bunch of Republican ideas anyway. I mean this is just the healthcare plan that Mitt Romney passed.”
On the other hand:
“Holy shit, if Democrats are relieved to be barely passing what is basically just a Republican plan then isn’t the Republican strategy of whining actually working?”
Only if their strategy was also to lose elections.
Rasmussen has a GOP house effect that you have to account for.
yeah, I was wondering why we were using the pro-GOP pollster as evidence of anything.
Eh, most polls I’ve read have pretty consistently had support at about 45-48%, don’t support at about 51-54%. Just grabbing one at random, let me look… Gallup has it as 47% saying the bill is a “good thing”, 50% saying a “bad thing.” Independents have appeared to be in about the 52-54% “against” category in the majority of the polls I’ve seen.
Again, enough that it gives a party a basis for the claim “most Americans oppose the bill.” Just as, if the Dems can turn public opinion around and get the polls to average over 50% approving, they will then say “Most Americans approve of this bill.”
I’m not sure what your entire post has to do with Rasmussen’s house effect. Are you denying that it exists?
Nope. Just saying that most polls I’m seeing and have seen have had pretty similar results.