ShivaX
4441
Thats cause hes the dude winning every match, so when hes forced to rely on others his team loses. I’m in the same boat with my arty. Lose all the damned time. I fire less than twice a minute, which isn’t enough to save the day when an entire flank crumples in 30 seconds due to stupidity.
Long winning or losing streaks are an expected product of randomness.
I think probably 10% or more of my losses on my su-14 are exiting the battle at the start when the map is himmelsdorf
Sure they are but what are the numbers?
Given my average win ratio (I am not even taking the individual tanks’ ratios, which are way higher) - 58% - the chance of me having a 9-game losing streak is (if my calculations are correct) 0.04%. And I’ve had 2 of those in the last couple of weeks. The chance of a 9-game winning streak is more than 15 times higher - 0.7% - and I don’t remember having those ever (when playing solo).
The chance of a 5-game losing streak for me is about 0.1% and I see those regularly. At least once a week.
The randomness seems to be a bit skewed by some (unknown?) factor.
It’s the human factor. You notice bad streaks because they affect you. The stats don’t care or notice. You could lose 40 times in a row tomorrow and your overall win % would probably only drop by a tiny amount.
Well, yes. That unknown factor could well be you playing badly…
Plus I doubt the chance of you losing is truely an independent variable. A hypothesis is that once a streak starts (positive or negative) it affects your confidence/ playstyle.
Also, how much have you played? Can’t be arsed to do the maths, but once you have played x thousand times the chance of coming across a streak of 9 is no longer 0.4% - that’s for an individual streak of nine. Say you have played 2000 times, then I would guess the probabability of hitting a streak of nine is getting up to 5% - so hardly a shock
Hanacker
4447
Huh, when I was playing yesterday, neither starting area had any buildings around the open field between the two. Felt pretty naked. I was on my mom’s computer on lowest graphic detail, but it would be weird if they just made buildings disappear for that.
Edit: Back on my computer and the buildings are back. Huh. No wonder I kept getting sniped so much yesterday.
LOL. But so true. That map might as well be named “I Hate You, Artillery!”
If you play enough games, you will Most likely have multiple long winninqg and losing streaks. Of course, you are more likely to notice the losing streaks (human nature and all).
I don’t know how many games you have played but I think with a 50:50 win:loss can reasonably expect a 9 game streak once every 500 games and of coursebyou might observe much wilder streaks of luck/unluck.
So odds are, if you have thousands of games under your belt this will have happened to you more than a few times, with lesser streaks happening all the time. I feel your observations say more about human nature and our ability to see patterns in randomness than anything else.
(of course it is not completely random, your skill is a non-random factor which is skewing your win loss up above 58%… obviously you think it should be higher but for the invisible forces holding you back :D)
…and then all of a sudden everything goes back to normal and I proceed to winning my usual 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4? I guess the hypothesis here is that after a particularly bad losing streak I am tapping into my inner strength? :)
I have 60-66% win ratio on the tanks I am currently playing, seeing any extended losing streaks is not a usual thing, let alone 9 games in a row twice in the last couple of weeks.
It’s the human factor. You notice bad streaks because they affect you. The stats don’t care or notice. You could lose 40 times in a row tomorrow and your overall win % would probably only drop by a tiny amount.
The tank’s individual win % would plunge VERY noticably though.
Also, how much have you played? Can’t be arsed to do the maths, but once you have played x thousand times the chance of coming across a streak of 9 is no longer 0.4% - that’s for an individual streak of nine. Say you have played 2000 times, then I would guess the probabability of hitting a streak of nine is getting up to 5% - so hardly a shock
This is a fair point and one I can’t argue because I don’t really remember if I had any bad streaks like that before and how many. And also because I have no idea how to prove/disprove that 5% figure. :)
It doesn’t prove anything though.
Facts: I had these bad streaks lately. Two of my friends (who have similar in-game stats) had these bad streaks lately (some less, some more spectacular :)). Sure, one could say that 3 of us got extremely “lucky” at around the same time. More logical thing to suggest though is that there is probably some hidden dependency that kicks in from time to time and causes these results.
Or maybe it’s all random. :)
It’s not so bad if you’re on fairly mobile artillery but the bus is just so. damn. slow.
Well, on a M40/43 it sucks, too. An M41 or a Hummel can do ok.
Have I said how much fascinated I am with all these numbers and stats? :)
You are right about the 50:50 ratio, a 9 game streak can be reasonably expected every 500 games. In my case though, 58:40:2, 40% loss ratio results in one 9-game streak every 3800 games. That’s using the overal win/loss ratio.
I got those 2 losing streaks on my Type 59 IIRC, which has about 65:34:1 ratio. 34% loss ratio results in one 9-game streak every 16,500 games.
I have just under 3000 games last time I checked. On all tanks, not just the Type 59. :) The Type’s seen 112 games only.
** You gotta admit that using overal ratio for calculations is kinda pointless because we are mixing up win/loss on something like Hetzer in April into “how come I got these losing streaks on my Type 59 last week”
(of course it is not completely random, your skill is a non-random factor which is skewing your win loss up above 58%… obviously you think it should be higher but for the invisible forces holding you back :D)
Hehe, I am perfectly content with my current win ratio :) What I find annoying is unexplainable extra long losing streaks.
What’s the learning curve like for noobs? Can i get involved from day 1 and not be totally gimped?
Dave47
4455
Interesting question. I’d compare it to most modern FPS games, which have level systems that deny new players access to perks or abilities. A new player can still compete, and player skill is very important, but there are disadvantages for new players.
The matchmaker is going to place a new player’s tier 1 tank into games with only tier 1 and 2 tanks. So you’ll be “gimped” relative to other tanks in your game, but not dramatically so. As you advance, your games will be shaped by the matchmaker: At tier 2, you may be placed into a game with relatively few tier 2 tanks and a bunch of tier 1 tanks… Or you may be placed into a game with a bunch of tier 3 tanks.
“Advancement” in World of Tanks take three in-game forms.
-Tank Tier: As you advance, you unlock better tanks. (So the M3 Lee will lead to the M4 Sherman which leads to the “Easy Eight” Sherman.)
-Tank Equipment: As you gain experience and currency, you can improve the modules on your tank to improve performance. Similarly, you can buy various accessories for in-game currency.
-Crew Experience: Playing your tank also levels the tanks crew. A 100% gunner, for example, is more accurate than a 50% gunner.
These three factors have a fairly large impact on outcomes, but your skill as a player is also very important. Since the game is free to play, I’d advise you to check it out. Far more important than the “skill gap” will be whether the underlying tank mechanisms “click” for you. WoT feels radically different from any other online arena team shooter I’ve ever played.
That is not the more logical conclusion ;)
First you are claiming two 9-loss streaks recently. What’s your win:loss with the T59? Are you sure you genuinely lost 9 matches in a row? Both times? Stories from your friends are anecdotes, but do they fall into the category of fish stories?
The fact is, if you play enough, such streaks are simply not unexpected. I bet you win 8 or 9 in a row all the time, but just never took special note of it.
Anyway there is not much point in pursuing this argument, as instructive as it is in how conspiracy theories are formed on the basis of essentially no evidence at all.
You obviously missed my last post. The last one on the previous page.
Oh and I bet I do see long winning streaks often enough, simply because 65% of wins will (or should :)) produce more streaks than 44% of losses. One about every 50 games, if my calculations are correct. Lol. I don’t think it’s happening in the game either.
Anyway there is not much point in pursuing this argument, as instructive as it is in how conspiracy theories are formed on the basis of essentially no evidence at all.
Sure, especially when all the evidence is dismissed with a simple “Are you sure you simply didn’t have PMS on the day of the alleged bad streaks?” :)
It’s much easier to explain stuff using the opponent’s apparent lack of memory and lying friends as explanations. :)
I agree though, the argument is pointless. It all comes down to “this random shit has a chance to occur, even if it’s 0.000000001%, so everything is fine”.
Maybe not easier but it is more likely. ;) extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence etc etc.
With 112 games with your T59 the likelihood of having had two 9-loss streaks with that tank specifically is indeed vanishingly small… And if 65:34 is your post loss ratio then it’s probably karmic rebalancing.
It’s amusing you take long win streaks for granted given that those are what is generating the ratio you are using to calculate the possibility in the first place, and 112 is a very small sample. Play 1000 games with the T59 and most likely that ratio will drift towards 50% ( there being a significant limit to what even an awesome player can do to affect outcomes in random matches).
Well, I played 475 games on Ferdi and it’s still at 66%. T-44 is at 64% after 220 games. Etc. I am that awesome :)
You are awesome too, I remember your stats (I think), don’t tell me about drifitng to 50%! :)
Oh and about win streaks. Win streaks are because of me. Loss streaks are because of the stupid game! :D
RichVR
4460
Play a PZII with a 100% crew and gold ammo. Just for fun. It’s actually hard to lose if you’re good. 5 and 6 kills a game. Waste of gold but loads of fun.
