Xbox data

Games
1

Ok, some stuff from a Microsoft press release. Interesting, but consider the source, of course.

Xbox Solidifies Number Two Position

In spite of recent competitive price cuts, Xbox holds the number two position in the United States and Europe. According to the NPD Group, Xbox maintains the number two position for life-to-date console sales in the United States, with more than a one million unit lead over Nintendo’s GameCube. Based on sell-through data in Europe, Xbox has more than a 600,000 unit lead over GameCube (Chart Track and GfK; through September 2003).

Xbox is on track to meet its sales forecast of 14.5 - 16 million units shipped by June 2004. While recent price cuts have negatively impacted PS2 market share, Xbox has maintained overall consistent share, currently at 24% in the US (NPD) which is in line with analyst expectations. And in the first five weeks of the Xbox holiday retail offer, sales have increased 54 percent on a weekly run rate basis.

It’s interesting that in the following they don’t post any Xbox Live numbers, which makes me wonder if they’ve seen a dropoff in subscribers who failed to renew?

Xbox Live Leads in Online Gaming

The Xbox console experience is highlighted with a hot plate of more than 70 Xbox Live games by year’s end, well exceeding competitive offerings. Exclusive new online titles coming this holiday include Project Gotham Racing 2, Amped 2, Top Spin, Counter-Strike, Crimson Skies: High Road to Revenge and Links 2004 (Microsoft Game Studios) Magic the Gathering (Atari); Sega GT Online (Sega); Star Wars Jedi Knight: Jedi Academy (Lucas Arts); Rainbow Six 3 (UbiSoft Entertainment) and Ninja Gaiden (Tecmo). Moreover, Xbox Live continues to win over gamers and reviewers. At a recent IGN roundtable, 12 out of 15 columnists recommended the Xbox Live service over PlayStation 2 Online.

The first part of the press release was all about numbers. When they get to Xbox Live, all they do is cheerlead.

Gamers are already showing their excitement for Xbox during the most popular time for software sales. October NPD TRSTS numbers reported the U.S. cumulative attach for Xbox increased from 5.9 in September to 6.1 (6.8 with retail pack-in games) in October, giving Xbox the continued distinction of having the highest attach rate on record for any next-generation console after almost two years in the market. This is evidenced by the number of Xbox titles continually appearing on best seller lists.

Good attachment rate, which probably explains why third-parties aren’t as interested in the Gamecube.

Anyway, just some stuff to argue about. :)

2

Here’s some more telling numbers… price drop means GCN was number 2 in October.

October NPD Hardware Sales

PS2: 300,000 [-10% over September sales]
Xbox: 176,000 [+3%]
GCN: 254,000 [+54%]
GBA: 401,000 [-2%]

Cumulative Installed Base

PS2: 19,439,000
Xbox: 6,178,000
GCN: 4,948,000
GBA: 16,310,000

Tie Ratios

PS2: 7.33
Xbox: 6.04
GCN: 5.85
GBA: 3.19

US Top 25 Videogame Titles

(Ranked in $$$, not units)

1 PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
2 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
3 PS2 JAK II Sony
4 PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ
5 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision
6 GCN SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts
7 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts
8 XBX NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
9 PS2 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami
10 PS2 SSX 3 Electronic Arts
11 GBA MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo
12 GCN VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom
13 PS2 BACKYARD WRESTLING Vivendi
14 XBX T. CLANCY’S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft
15 PS2 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive
16 GCN KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo
17 PS2 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi
18 XBX CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft
19 PS2 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
20 XBX ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega
21 GCN SOUL CALIBUR II Namco
22 PS2 NHL 2004 Electronic Arts
23 PS2 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami
24 XBX MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
25 XBX CONFLICT: DESERT II Take Two Interactive

Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.

Also…

Total
Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
PS2 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $19,311,610 387,363
PS2 2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $10,151,370 204,064
PS2 3 JAK II Sony $9,525,686 239,217
PS2 4 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ $7,575,488 152,073
PS2 5 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $7,166,578 144,842
PS2 6 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $5,678,678 114,109
PS2 7 CASTLEVANIA: LAMENT Konami $4,733,432 95,177
PS2 8 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $4,559,972 91,815
PS2 9 BACKYARD WRESTLING Eidos $3,948,827 79,233
PS2 10 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $3,192,561 64,096

Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
XBX 1 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $5,259,460 105,539
XBX 2 T. CLANCY’S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft $3,911,208 78,633
XBX 3 CRIMSON SKIES: HIGH Microsoft $2,948,061 59,379
XBX 4 ESPN NBA BASKETBALL Sega $2,668,353 53,567
XBX 5 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts $2,427,489 48,870
XBX 6 CONFLICT: DESERT II Take-Two Interactive $2,353,912 48,345
XBX 7 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $2,311,633 46,711
XBX 8 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 Electronic Arts $2,214,646 44,551
XBX 9 SSX 3 Electronic Arts $1,936,943 38,990
XBX 10 HALO Microsoft $1,813,485 36,547

Titl Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
GCN 1 SW:ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts Entertainment $5,744,523 115,672
GCN 2 VIEWTIFUL JOE Capcom $4,060,866 102,231
GCN 3 KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo $3,063,197 61,583
GCN 4 SOUL CALIBUR II Namco $2,659,374 54,369
GCN 5 TEENAGE MUTANT TURTLE Konami $1,758,922 43,050
GCN 6 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo $1,532,765 51,201
GCN 7 BILLY HATCHER Sega $1,429,339 37,215
GCN 8 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN Vivendi Universal $1,419,004 28,999
GCN 9 MARIO GOLF: TOADSTOOL Nintendo $1,326,796 26,699
GCN 10 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts $1,321,751 26,511

Note that there are only three Nintendo published games in the top ten on GCN this month and the top two are both third party games that hit the top 25 overall. Note also that they’re both exclusives to the Gamecube.

3

Got a link to the actual report?

4

October NPD Hardware Sales

PS2: 300,000 [-10% over September sales]
Xbox: 176,000 [+3%]
GCN: 254,000 [+54%]
GBA: 401,000 [-2%]

That’s interesting right there. It just shows you the power of the PS2. Even with a 10% drop over last year’s sales for the same time period, and even with a modest Xbox sales increase and a dramatic GCN sales increase, the PS2 is still pulling further ahead. With all the talk about PS2 sales declining, it’s still widening the gap between itself and its rivals.

5

The above was all posted on the Gaming Age Forums by someone that has the actual spreadsheet. There’s a thread there with more of the report, too but that’s all the analysis stuff. I thought it would be more interesting to hear how people here interpret it rather than how the analysts do.

Unfortunately, the TRSTS spreadsheet hasn’t been leaked for about three to five months. Maybe soon with Christmas right around the corner?

6

My question is what can the market sustain? Can GCN and XBOX survive even if PS2 is taking the lion’s share of the money? Sega thought that being fourth or third in a 4 horse race was not good business sense, but what about 2nd?

7

A lot of people are buying more than one console. If the PS2 is the primary choiuce then the Xbox or GC is the second choice. I think it’s quite possible to survive in second place. Hell, if MS makes the install base of 14-15 million by next summer that’s a lot of people to sell games to.

8

To quote a DFC Intelligence newsletter (released in January '03, mind you):

In the history of video game systems, arguably the most successful system ever has been the Sony PlayStation (PSX). Thus the PSX provides a good benchmark to judge the success of a new system. When one compares the performance of the PlayStation 2 with the PSX at a comparable point in its lifecycle it isn’t even close. The PS2 has blown away the original PSX in almost all comparable sales figures (total hardware sales, total software sales, average unit sales etc). To many this is probably not surprising. However, what may be more surprising is that both the Microsoft Xbox and Nintendo GameCube outperformed the PSX at its comparable point in the lifecycle.

9

Isn’t that just because the pie is larger? I mean the Atari 2600 had over 95% of the market at one point… but that was a tiny number of households. The NES had 80% of the market in the late 80’s. The PSX never had that kind of dominance.

10

However, what may be more surprising is that both the Microsoft Xbox and Nintendo GameCube outperformed the PSX at its comparable point in the lifecycle.

How much of this is name recognition and/or brand loyalty? Note that PS2 is backwards compatible and made a big deal of that, while Nintendo and Sega didn’t support their last generation system.

How much of the PS2’s success can be solely attributed to the PSX?

11

Isn’t that just because the pie is larger? I mean the Atari 2600 had over 95% of the market at one point… but that was a tiny number of households. The NES had 80% of the market in the late 80’s. The PSX never had that kind of dominance.

But I don’t think that quote is talking about percentages, I think it’s taklking about actual numbers, i.e. total sales to date for the GC and Xbox (each) is more than the PS1 had at it’s two year anniversary. The thinking is, if that amount (and growing) could support Sony five years ago, then why can’t it support MS or GC now? People always think in market share terms, but sometimes that might not be so useful.

I think it’s interesting that R6-3 is so high on the Xbox list. That game wasn’t even released until Nov. 4th- is it likely that number is for the pre-order disk that Ubi was selling with the game demo and extra maps for Splinter Cell and GR-IT?

12

That game wasn’t even released until Nov. 4th- is it likely that number is for the pre-order disk that Ubi was selling with the game demo and extra maps for Splinter Cell and GR-IT?

No it was released the week before- around the 28th I think. I know because I have a receipt showing I purchased it on the 3rd and that was only after reading several days of positive impressions on other boards. As for the NPD data, it may include a few days of November- I’m not sure what the closeout date for October was.

Still, a very good showing for R6. Much better than Amped 2 which was released the same day but only posted 10,000 copies sold.

13

Ah. Too bad about Amped. Got it last night through Gamefly (yes, I’m part of the problem), booted it up and played it for seven hours straight with my brother (both split-screen and trading off career modes). Good game- I’m probably going to buy if from them (they give some incredibly good deals on ‘preplayed’ games- I think I’m the only one who has played this particular copy). The controls are a bit tough, but it’s much more a matter of skill and character development than any inherant flaws in the game. About the only thing that I’m disapointed with is that you can’t play spit-screen on Live!.

14

People are also always ignoring the GBA. To whit:

PS2: 300,000 [-10% over September sales]
Xbox: 176,000 [+3%]
GCN: 254,000 [+54%]
GBA: 401,000 [-2%]

Cumulative Installed Base

PS2: 19,439,000
Xbox: 6,178,000
GCN: 4,948,000
GBA: 16,310,000

The GBA was the biggest seller in October and is a relatively close second in total install base. I expect that since the price drop, a fair number of those 16 million GBA owners are considering picking up a GC and GBPlayer for home use. I know I am.

15

"People are also always ignoring the GBA. To whit: "

People ignore the GBA numbers because it has no competition so there’s nothing to argue over. :D

16

Not only that, but it seems like the # of households with a GBA and any other console is a huge majority that there’s no real need to talk about it in the “console wars”.

It seems like most people are far more likely to have a GBA and any console then no GBA and two consoles. Then there are freaks like me who have a PS2, XBox, GC, Dreamcast, and a GBA (and a GB Color for my daughter).

17

I wonder how well the GBA is doing in Europe and especially Scandinavia, since I’ve never actually seen anyone playing with one here. I rarely even hear anyone talking about GBAs in this corner of the world.

18

A friend has one, I’ve seen a couple of people play it on the subway or something.