It could be, but don’t hang your hopes on an early Virginia call.
Virginia is “early voting” in name only. Early voting in VA means absentee balloting, and to get an absentee ballot and have it considered, there are hoops to jump through (I know this firsthand) that make it pretty restrictive.
90% of Virginia’s voting will be done on November 4th. Using the narrow campaign wins of Tim Kaine in 2005 (ok, not that narrow) and Jim Webb in 2006 (a squeaker!), voting returns from Arlington County and Alexandria came in very, very late–and expect polling sites in those areas to be swamped all day on the 4th and possibly open later than 7pm. Fairfax County, Loudoun County, and Fairfax City are the other areas that make up “Fake Virginia”, and they also were slow to report back in those previous elections.
That being said, it may not be necessary to wait for metroplex here in NoVA to be counted. If central and southwest Virginia (they counted pretty quick the last two times round the track) aren’t going to McCain by 55-60%, then yeah…it’s over.
The thing that interests me about early voting is that you can’t rescind it. If you’ve already voted in VA and something horrible breaks in the news between now and then that would change your vote, well, you’re screwed.
That being said, no one I’ve spoken to in my microcosm of Northern (fake) VA is voting for McCain. Anecdotes = data, so I’d be shocked if he won this part of the state.
I live/go to school/work in Richmond which is pretty pro-Obama, but everyone I talk to, Democrat or Republican, are pretty convinced that McCain will still win VA.
Everyone seems to believe that all the “Real” Virginians will come in droves from the boonies, the people who don’t get touched by polls etc etc. Or that blacks won’t have a huge rise in voting like expected. Or the whole “sub-concious racism” thing will kick in at the polls and people won’t be able to actually vote for Obama.
It’s enough to make me not start celebrating ahead of time. Should be interesting.