Zogby says Kerry on the Ropes

Politics and religion
1

By Susan Jones
CNSNews.com Morning Editor
September 08, 2004

(CNSNews.com) - Pollster John Zogby says the Republican National Convention gave President George W. Bush a boost, but not an eleven-point lead in the polls, as Time and Newsweek recently proclaimed.

“I have Mr. Bush leading by 2 points (46-44 percent) in the simple head-to-head match-up,” Zogby said in a press release. “Add in the other minor candidates and it becomes a 3-point advantage for the president - 46-43 percent.”

Zogby says that’s quite an achievement, considering that President Bush was behind 50-43 percent in Zogby’s mid-August poll. Bush has turned the race around, Zogby noted, jumping 3 points last week while Kerry lost 7 points.

“Impressive by any standard,” Zogby said in a press release, adding that “Mr. Kerry is on the ropes.”

Zogby questioned the methodology of both the Time and Newsweek polls, suggesting that they were weighted in favor of Republicans.

Zogby also reminded Americans that his polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000.

“None of this takes away from the president’s achievement,” Zogby said. “He got out of his party’s convention everything he needed to launch his campaign in earnest in the closing two months.”

But, Zogby added, President Bush sill has a net negative job performance rating; a “negative re-elect,” which means more voters think it’s time for someone new; and a net negative “wrong direction” for the country.

Kerry, however, is behind and “has a lot of work to do to refocus the campaign on the issues that must work for him,” including the economy, health care, and the execution of the war in Iraq, Zogby said.

2

I see you have a future as a headline writer for the New York Post.

3

I just report, you decide.

4

Sounds faux to me.

5

It’s also from September 8th for crying out loud.
Oh, also, wtf is CNS news anyway?

EDIT: Nevermind, I looked it over. It’s Newsmax for Dummies.

6

My friend, Mr. Z, you have become a world class cherry picker!

Lede with a line from a story where that challenged the conventional wisdom of the then-current polling (Bush is ahead by 11). Now of course, the same polling today has Bush’s lead cut by half. So does that mean, according to the man you quoted, Bush would be down by 4, thus interpolating your headline to the present day, you might have said, “Kerry comes off the ropes!”

You could have stuck with the facts and still got a nice piece for your guy. I think the relevant data point from the story that is still true to this day is that Bush was behind and surged forward (maybe not ahead at this point).

7

Zarathustra:

Zogby says Kerry on the Ropes

…

I just report, you decide.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=868

Released: September 21, 2004
Race for President Falls Back into Dead Heat, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals

The race for President of the United States continued to tighten during the last two weeks, as President Bush continued his long, hard slog back toward parity with Democratic challenger John Kerry, throwing the race into a virtual dead heat, the latest package of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.

Neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Kerry holds a clear-cut lead in enough states to win the Electoral College votes required to capture the White House. Based on individual polls conducted simultaneously Sept. 13-17 in 20 battleground states. Here’s the latest chart:

ZOGBY’S RACE SO FAR:
Sept 21

President Bush 241

Senator Kerry 264

8

CNS is for folks who need Hee Haw explained to them.

Nice 3-week old poll, Zar. You’re about as sharp as a sack of wet hair.

9

Haha, ZING.

10

Not to mention that Zogby has pushed it’s Republican lean even farther in the last poll, up to 12%(!!!) from 7% in the poll you site. And yet his lead is diminishing! Remember the controversy over the LA Times polling and their weighting? They’re pikers compared to this BS

Zogby is now assuming that this election will show a greater shift in party identification than any time in American history. Does that sound likely to you?

These polls are propaganda pure and simple. It terrifies me to think what the public is being set up for…

11

Who the fuck is Zogby and why should I care?

Fuck the polls.

BTW, Bush will probably win because he has the most power.

etc

12

Yeah, but did the interviewee actually say, "“Kerry comes off the ropes!” ?

No, I didn’t think so :roll:

I posted it because I like the predicition, Kerry is on the ropes. Yeah,…

You want current 'n non-Fox?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6122850/
[b]Good news for Bush in three new polls
President has solid leads over challenger Kerry MSNBC
In a Washington Post-ABC News Poll, Bush has a six-point lead over Kerry — 51 percent to 45 percent — among likely voters while independent Ralph Nader garners 1 percent. Bush’s lead is seven points — 51-44 — among registered voters.

A new poll from USA Today/CNN/Gallup showed similar results. Bush leads Kerry by eight points — 52-44 — among likely voters and by 11 points — 53-42 — among all registered voters. Nader claims three percent in both cases.

And a poll of registered voters from the Pew Research Center gave Bush a 48-40 lead with Nader garnering 2 percent. [/b]

I’m smiling, too.

13

You have heard about the Gallup polls skewing since they polled over 40% Repubs and only 30% Dems? In other words, polling is just as bogus as economics! It’s just another way for the fascists to keep people away from the polls.

14

Aaahh, ok, another vast right wing conspiracy, eh?.. (backs away slowly…)

:shock:

15

Don’t they do the restaurant guides?

16

Isn’t Kerry still ahead (barely) in most of the swing states?

17

In such a close race, I think this kind of hurts Bush. His base will be less likely to come out and vote.

18

Zarathustra, you want to analyze numbers? You couldn’t even handle a Calvin cartoon and I don’t think you ever got why people were laughing at you over it.

Chet

19

Who the fuck is Zogby and why should I care?

Of all the pollsters, Zogby most closely predicted the results of both the 2000 and 1996 elections.

20

Of all the pollsters, Zogby most closely predicted the results of both the 2000 and 1996 elections.

Bizarrely, James Carville’s “Democracy Corps” actually predicted the 2000 election results with even more accuracy than Zogby. Carville currently has the race at 47-46 for Bush.