Fuck all, unless there’s some new study correlating primary turnout with election results since the last time we did this song & dance.
Also, jesus christ, @triggercut.
You’re asking a group of people about to roll the dice what number they’re going to roll. I dunno. They dunno. No one really knows.
What we do know is that if you’re a Democrat, your probabilities of rolling that THAC0 for Georgia governor are better in 2018 than they were in 2014, at least for now. And that’s pretty good.
(Heck, we don’t even know yet who Stacey Abrams will be running against; no Republican got to 50%, so they’re going to have a run-off.)
If it helps for framing, the 2014 primary for governor in Georgia wasn’t competitive for either party. In that primary, 65% of voters voted Republican, 35% voted Democrat. Yesterday, 55% voted Republican in a very heated contest, 45% voted Democrat in a competitive, but less so, race.
I Googled it so y’all don’t have to:
In the 2014 GA-Gov general election, the (incumbent) Republican got 53% of the vote.
Not sure where to stick this, but logically I’d think they’d have a case:
edit - as a side note, the state voted to redraw the districts, but only after 2020 (using the new census data). This lawsuit would be to do it long before then.
But probably not before November 2018?
It’s the same strategy texas has been using for years now to prevent neqw districts from actually getting drawn. Keep appealing it to a higher court and rely on the long wait times for the trial to be heard to continue the current boundaries. Effectively taking the judicial system out of the process for a substantial period of time.
And now that we’re close to the 2020 census, they’ll bring out the arguement that they used for the Garland supreme court seat and try that one in some new appeals. ‘Gotta wait to see how many districts there will be before redrawing lines’
We need courts to be able to hear these very important issues in a timely manner, and bump things of less national importance if needed. If a new appeal would be heard in a matter of weeks rather than months/years, it’d put an end to that particular strategy.
I hear what you are saying, but after 2016 I’m cultivating a mindset to avoid ever assuming the results of an election again. I think this is healthy for the party. The constant headlines about the blue wave freak me out – I want people to be out there hustling every vote they can get expecting everything to be close.
For those unfamiliar (and it’s a shame the article doesn’t mention this), one of the most absurdly gerrymandered districts is Ohio’s 9th. It stretches from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland west side) all the way to the Michigan border past Toledo. Roughly 120 miles from end to end.
I think the frustration is watching the generic ballot flip to the GOP for some perplexing reason, and watching Trump’s approval’s inch up.
This political environment is so depressing, watching the GOP dismantle the institutions of this country, while also watching Trump run roughshod over issues that many moderates and liberals hold dear. So, we are all holding onto the hope that we can stem the tide this fall and see some sort of hope - only to feel like it is slipping away amidst the lies and depravity of this administration.
But I think your point is good, that when you look at the actual results of the past 1.5 years (specials, primaries), signs are still pointing positive for the Democrats
Knowing how courts tend to move and then the time making a map typically takes, I sincerely doubt it.
And that’s my frustration. ;) Quaro posted last night that this had happened, and yet here I am looking at FiveThirtyEight, and the number actually improved from Monday morning to Tuesday morning, with the Democrats back up to nearly a 5-point lead in that aggregator.
It’s almost as if different people use different polls and then state them as The Truth™ (not that Quaro did this, but rather he was a victim of the process like many of the rest of us).
If the generic ballot preference is any kind of indicator, then Democrats are going to need nearly twice that in order to flip the House. It’s still a little early though and once September rolls around the numbers will start to mean more (insofar as they ever mean anything), but the tightening polls reflect the effective normalization of graft, corruption, complicity and incompetence demonstrated by this administration and the Republican party.
Now matter how its spun, that’s just depressing.
Maybe we should look to French history to chin up our flagging spirits. France managed to go through several periods of vacillating between monarchy/pseudo-empires and democracy. And Democracy managed to survive.
The status-quo didn’t survive however. And maybe, or maybe not, that is a good thing.
I don’t think this is necessarily the case. The polls reflect people who are committed against Trump as well as those who waver according to the news of the day. Lately the latter has been in Trump’s favor, for example the positive developments in North Korea. I don’t expect that will go on forever, Trump is Trump and idiots gonna idiot.
Oh hey, what’s in the news today?
Korean talks are off. That should tank his numbers, right? Except I doubt there will be much negative coverage on fox.
But he will still get the Nobel Peace Prize, right?
I mean… that’s not exactly a reassuring example.
I’m not a fan of ‘The Young Turks’ generally (they’d call me a neoliberal shill) but I happened across this video of how the Democrats should be framing recent events in the Mueler investigation and fully agree – go on offense with this. No time to hold anything back.
Man. Tom Perez sure does have a tin ear.
Cynthia Nixon doesn’t want his endorsement.
Andrew Cuomo doesn’t need it.
So yeah, if you’re thinking “Tom Perez endorsing Andrew Cuomo is about the dumbest possible thing he could do, so there’s no way he’d do that shit…” Well…