Well, there’s 2 parts: 1) do people blame the Dems for the shutdown?, 2) if they do blame the Dems, will that have an impact on elections? (i.e. will it cost political capital).
Currently, it seems likely that the answer to 1 is no, although the right-wing propaganda machine is cranking full speed on it, so who knows?
The CNN poll showing the generic ballot lead for Dems had shrunk to 5% is on their minds, even with today’s new poll showing a 14% lead on the generic.
Nate Silver made an excellent point on this: the Democrats message has been mixed at best on the shutdown. Those engaging actively on negotiations paint it as “DACA is worth shutting government down for.” Those who are not in those negotiations are messaging that the shutdown is the Republicans’ fault.
Those two messages frequently conflict with one another.
The simple fact is, Dems are going to have to give up something to get DACA. That’s how negotiation works. Will it be funding for the wall? Tax cuts to the wealthy? Increased military spending? What graft will the GOP get?
I might be wrong, the GOP may cave for nothing. But the Dems do not have much bargaining power, and the thing they want, I argue, is not worth whatever compromise they will seek. They put themselves in a terrible position and it’s all the Democratic leadership’s fault. I may be proven wrong, GOP may cave for no reason, bit we will see. I see it as bad leadership.
The smart thing would be to give up funding for the wall, and then spend the rest of the year and the lead-up to 2020 pointing out that taxpayer funds are going to a wall which will be impossible to complete and playing clips of the President saying that Mexico would pay for it.
That would be pretty clever, if they can pull it off.
The Democrats offered funding for the wall. They were wise to do so, because then they can saddle GOP/Trump with the cost that Mexico was supposed to pay for.
GOP was good with that until Kelly/Miller torpedoed it. That was the compromise to get CHIP funding and DACA (things that both parties agree on)
Instead, the Dems are now caving for nothing. This isn’t going to be well received by the base.
But you have no problem saying things as “blanket statements of fact”.
Okay, I think that was Guap’s point and I know that is where I stand.
Prediction: the hard left wing of the party and fringe will be very upset by this. For a while. Probably not long enough to matter. We’ll see.
I agree. I don’t think they actually have to cave to get DACA, but in order to get it done in a timely manner and under the same “banner” then they do.
Frankly, I think the Democrats need to work on their messaging some more; stop playing the “We’re the serious party” card, because frankly that’s just not winning over hearts and minds anymore (if it ever did in the first place).
Thank you! I do feel very confident when someone says “No one feels this way…” that there is likely to be AT LEAST ONE person who DOES feel that way. And we have evidence of that in this very thread, so yeah.
Was there anything else I can help you with?
Obviously I was using a bit of hyperbole there. Technically I supposed I should have said “almost no one”.
That’s the deal. You may all project your brightest, neutral-est, or darkest thoughts on what that means and what the consequences are.
My sense is: public opinion was never going to be strong for a shutdown, and Democrats are going to have to figure out a better way to make failure to pass DACA stick to Trump and Stephen Miller first before the next fight comes up.
What’s to stop the legislation having a bunch of poison pills in it? That’s fair to all sides - Dems get DACA, Republicans get to privatise Medicare.
I don’t see how this fight has done anything but show to the Republicans that the Dems care enough about DACA for it to be a useful hostage, but not enough to hold the line.
Those are poison pills that are probably too poisonous for Senate Republicans. Remember, right now the Senate is effectively 49-49 for the most part.
The real nightmare scenario here for Republicans is if Schumer gets the bipartisan agreements negotiated between Dick Durbin and Lindsey Graham to the Senate floor per McConnell’s agrement. It could well pass there (in fact, it might be more likely than not to pass, because only Graham’s vote might be needed), but then it goes to the House…where, yikes.
So what’s the most likely result here?
Resolution passes for another CR funding the govt for 3-4 weeks with CHIPs funding, but nothing else?
That seems ideal for the Senate Republicans, at least in their current, who cares about Hispanic voters incarnation. They get to pass DACA legislation, and blame it on the House when it doesn’t become law. Meanwhile, they’re free to do whatever they like with the budget.
The most likely result is that the vote happens in 3 weeks, probably passes the Senate, then dies in the House… Dreamers get deported.
But then this becomes: