I’ve been a political junkie since I stuffed envelopes and made phone calls for Carter back when I was in college. Two pieces to it: one, I am fascinated by the tactics and strategy and look at a lot of it the same way I do in my military history studies. The other piece is the psychology of it all, though the two can go in lockstep. I remember when the internet first started to become widespread, the Usenet days, and thinking OK, now people will have almost unlimited access to information and it will become much more difficult to fool people. Obviously, I missed the outcome of that by a wide margin!
One advantage the Republicans have is they are very much aligned and in agreement on most things. The strength of the Democrats is also a weakness, which is their diversity. I remember being at a speech by Carville back when Dukakis was running against Bush. It was after the Democratic convention and Dukakis was up by a very large margin. Carville said it would take a huge amount of mistakes and breakdown of focus and direction for the Democrats to lose. He paused, then said, of course, the Democrats are uniquely capable of that.
I have zero agenda talking on here about my beliefs (fears) that Trump will win in November. I assumed after 4 years of watching Trump’s total idiocy, criminal behavior, blatant lies on top of lies on top of lies, stupidity, and mismanagement of the pandemic in such a way as to cost the lives of hundreds of thousands, Biden would win easily. Surely the American people would not want this guy in office another 4 years? And then Biden just barely won. I hoped that the GOP would be happy to not have the yoke of Trump around their neck again. Wrong again.
I had hoped that the party leaders would sit with Biden and he would agree to turn the reins over to a dynamic, young candidate like Mark Warner. Someone who would be such a contrast to Trump. Nope.
And lastly, I had hoped that Democrats and Independents would unite, young and old, to keep this corrupt, dangerously stupid fascist out of office, deciding no matter how much we may disagree with Biden on whatever, let’s keep Trump out of office and then deal with our differences with Biden over the next 4 years. I’m speculating that what will put Trump back in will be the GOP turning out in high numbers to vote GOP in their religious like fervor, while many Dems and especially Independents will just stay home. But, as one example, I live very close to Georgia and I remember the energy and excitement of the Democratic effort there four years ago. I’m not seeing or hearing anything at that level this year.
My hope is we somehow have a Democratic House and Senate but I’m not seeing numbers (at this point) that give me a lot of optimism. Trump with a Democratic House and Senate would be much less scary than one with a Republican Congress. The other sliver of hope I hold is that Trump has already done the one thing a President can do that is not “fixable” in a decent amount of time, which is pack the Supreme Court and the Federal courts. That’s unfortunately irreversibly already done. So my hope is that Trump somehow, if he gets the White House, somehow is so emboldened he damages the GOP in ways that finally cripples that party for a long time. Unfortunately, he’s already taught the GOP that they don’t have to be subtle and sneaky and they don’t have to worry about consequences, they can just put it all out there with no real consequences to them.
I’m an old guy. I remember relatively minor mistakes and indiscretions take a politician down. I still find it completely surreal someone like Trump, who, in another time, would be dumped by the party as unelectable for even one of his actions/crimes, can sit in the White House.
/vent off