Get optimistic. It feels better.
Yeahno.
What this election pre-supposes is: “What if they don’t?”
Are you really doing that thing where someone goes through a long thread, calling out everyone who predicted a result wrong? Yeesh.
Oopsie. Didn’t age so well, either.
Fuck you man, I’m avoiding Star Wars trailers. I know it might seem petty to be angry about a single image, but I shouldn’t need to have my guard up in this thread of all places.
Switch to decaf, shitbird.
So this piqued my interest. I created a quick / dirty model trying to justify this in my head because a quick glance tells me that the black vote must have just crushed this, but the numbers tell a different story:
Note: complete & utter fabrication on my side using the above exit polls as gospel and assuming 50/50 turnout with Men/Women. I used the numbers to get close to republican turn-out and then just use the difference to create the dem turn-out:
What this shows is that black/white voters turned out in roughly the same percentage as they represent of the population. Had the additional 600,000 voters who turned out for the 2016 presidential election came to the polls, I think it’s safe to say Moore would have won.
Again, this model is nothing to bank on other than the exit poll that None referenced and my math could be flawed, but from first glance voting is more or less representative of the overall population - I couldn’t find any reliable exit polls from 2016 on race/gender so not sure how Alabama skews normally.
So gotta keep fighting because if the people who stayed home come to the polls in 2018, it’s going to be a different story.
In the sore loser category…
LOL.
The Moore campaign knows that Bernie Bernstein is the only real WaPo reporter in Alabama, so those guys must have been imposters.
Ok, that’s really funny. :)
Yep. This was mostly about Republican voters staying home. Alternately stated…
I bet she could have gotten in:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.465248be5159
It’s worth reading too, so please do but also
But voter turnout at mid-terms is generally much lower than a presidential election year, right? And a special elelection would typically be lower than that, right? In that case, this isn’t about low turnout for Moore, but excellent turnout for Jones.
Yeah, that’s a good point.