We’ll see a gulf of tonkin style event starring either Syria or Iran by October? I’m talking real money here. Seriously.
I doubt it. It’d be a huge gamble as public opinion is unsettled about Iraq, pushing it would knock people off the fence but probably not on Bush’s side. My bet is Rove knows the only thing all Americans can agree on is that Al Qaida and Bin Laden need to be brought down. Most of our efforts (finally) seem to be focused on that so he can get the headlines he needs this fall. What wouldn’t surprise me might be a covert strike or raid against Iranian nuclear facilities if they come up with real, no doubts about it, honest to god, facts that Iran’s about to make something bad. And even better move would be using the UN to get another nation, say one at odds with us about Iraq, to make that strike. Then Rove could argue, through Bush of course, that the world is coming around to see things our way.
What troops could we use to do anything about it even if there was a real attack by one of those nations?
By October? Not a chance. Bush and Cheney need to spend the rest of this year campaigning. Barring another attack on the US, they won’t have time to do anything else, certainly nothing as intensive as a covert invasion.
All bets are off should they be declared the winners of the 2004 presidential election, though.
The situation in Iran is very serious. The momentum is there, the pieces are in place, the endgame depressingly clear. If you’re religious, pray for the Iranian people as they are the ones that will get burned. If you aren’t, just watch the rest of the wreck in slow motion. Iran will not stop its development. Iran will not be allowed to complete its development.
First action will almost certainly go to the Israelis at this point. Although at the end of the day, I’m pretty certain that if Bush felt it were critical to hit Iran, it would happen even if the result would cost him the election.
I certainly don’t deny the situation in Iran is very serious, as is the situation in North Korea. The administration might need something to push it over the top if real bonafide crisis doesn’t mature by then. Setting aside conspiracy theories, this kind of thing is fairly common (Tonkin, Havana Harbor, The Reichstag fire).
(edited for verb agreement)
Did you ever think that with all that is happening right now, these coming 3 months are the MOST opportune time to try flexing muscle agaisnt anythign the Bush admin stands for?
It’s perfect.
China is gearing up to invade Taiwan, Korea is mouthing off again and Iran is drawing a line in the sand…all thinking to themselves, “Ha, what is the US going to do? THey have too many problems as it is, they can’t address this right now and we have a perfect chance for success…”
Rotor I’m scared!
So much for the peace dividend. Thanks WJC!
BLOOD & THUNDER PROPHET:
…And the bezan shall be huge and black, and the eyes thereof red with the blood of living creatures, and the whore of Babylon shall ride forth on a three-headed serpent, and throughout the lands, there’ll be a great rubbing of parts. Yeeah…
FALSE PROPHET:
…For the demon shall bear a nine-bladed sword. Nine-bladed! Not two or five or seven, but nine, which he will wield on all wretched sinners, sinners just like you, sir, there, and the horns shall be on the head, with which he will…
BORING PROPHET:
…Obadiah, his servants. There shall, in that time, be rumours of things going astray, erm, and there shall be a great confusion as to where things really are, and nobody will really know where lieth those little things wi-- with the sort of raffia work base that has an attachment. At this time, a friend shall lose his friend’s hammer and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before, about eight o’clock. Yea, it is written in the book of Cyril that, in that time, shall the third one…
They wouldn’t have to spend all that time campaigning. I can’t imagine the public voting in a new president if we were in a new war.
But why would we fight Iran? What about the domino effect? With democracy in Iraq, Iran will revolt any day now.
Chet
Iran will be too busy fighting Iraq to attack us.
I thought the administration was just going to trot out the long-ago captured Osama sometime around October. Why bother with another fake war?
They wouldn’t have to spend all that time campaigning. I can’t imagine the public voting in a new president if we were in a new war.
I disagree, I bet we’d see record voter turnout in the 18-24 year old range from young people who don’t want to be shipped off to die in a desert…
- The Iranian mullahs are trying very hard to provoke an airstrike by either Israel or the U.S. In fact, I suspect that the provocation of this eventual airstrike is now the very purpose of their nuclear weapons program.
The reasoning, of course, is that the famously nationalistic Iranian people would forget their disenchantment with the mullahs’ regime and rally ‘round the flag in the face of foreign assault. An Osirak-style raid on Bushehr might well extend the mullahs’ regime by another 20 years, and the mullahs know it. Thus they will continue working (loudly) on their nuke program until such time as Israel or the U.S. is forced to bomb the reactor to keep it from going online.
First action will almost certainly go to the Israelis at this point. Although at the end of the day, I’m pretty certain that if Bush felt it were critical to hit Iran, it would happen even if the result would cost him the election.
Don’t be so sure. With regard to Bush, the opposite scenario is far more likely, which is that the Iranians would hustle to finish their weapons program before the November elections, assuming (correctly) that Bush would dare not launch an October/November airstrike for fear of being seen as “wagging the dog.” (For reference, see Election 2000, when Clinton decided not to activate the Clarke/Tenet “Delenda Est” operation against Afghanistan for fear of upsetting the election.)
Luckily for us, the Israelis will do the strike if it becomes necessary.
I’ve gotta get those fallout shelter plans from Cleve… the shit’s gonna hit the fan!