Let’s not pretend Sanders wasn’t being hounded to drop out before COVID-19 became the beast that it currently is.
That’s one of the reasons they “suspend” their campaigns and don’t drop out.
The biggest reason, of course, is money…but the other one is that you can always revive a suspended campaign if something major changes, like say, the leader dropping dead.
Bernie getting out 1) allows states to cancel the rest of the primaries to save lives, 2) nullifies the effect of delaying / canceling primaries and 3) ends the nonstop Bernie attacks on Biden. It’s desirable for everyone except Republicans and Bernie.
He’s being ‘hounded out’ by…actual voters. He just refuses to admit it.
Suspend your campaign, you keep your delegates.
Before the convention, you can drop out, and your freed delegates are allocated to remaining candidates, so if anything should happen healthwise with someone, it’s all accounted for.
States still need to do something for primaries involving their congressional seats though, but they could at least delay and move to mail-in or something.
That’s true, I didn’t think about that.
Hypothetically, with Bernie’s money and network and sea of volunteers, if he were to run a non-negative campaign through to late-April before heartily endorsing Biden (which he says he will do) wouldn’t that actually help the Dems in November?
This.
In 2008, Obama was seen to have an insurmountable delegate lead in March with just a 60-70 delegate margin, because of proportional allocation.
After tonight, Biden’s lead is likely to be 5 times that.
Why? Why stay in one day more after you’ve lost? What is there to be gained? It’s just…denial. It’s the same denial he evidenced last time.
Reaching voters that Biden’s campaign would be completely unable to engage, i.e. young people, using their vast money and volunteers. Get them enthused about changing the country and educate them on the dangers of a second Trump term, and then when Biden gets endorsed at least some of them will float over there.
It doesn’t have that effect.
It maintains the fiction that you are still a viable candidate to win the nomination.
People who probably should be doing other things with their money will continue to donate.
And continue to conjure up scenarios in which the nomination process has either been stolen from their preferred candidate, or in which their preferred candidate has a chance and is the only one.
The longer people have time to get accustomed, and the longer Team Biden has to focus on the fall, the better.
See, a normal losing candidate would admit the loss, then run around the country marshaling support for the winner. Bernie can do all of those things without being the candidate. And there is good reason to believe he can’t do them while he is the candidate. He’s not exactly singing the praises of Biden and the Democratic Party, is he?
And the Times decision desk has also called IL for Biden.
See, I understand your arguments, but I am not sure why you are both so confident that they are true. It could be true, but what’s the empirical evidence? Looking back:
- 2016 the opponent left late and the Dem lost
- 2008 the opponent left late and the Dem won
- 2004 the opponent left early and the Dem lost
- 2000 the opponent left early and the Dem lost
- 1992 the opponent left late and the Dem won
- 1988 the opponent left late and the Dem lost
So of those, 2 observations support your theory and 4 do not. Obviously there are many other variables determining who wins in November, but if you have more specific empirical evidence I would be interested in reading it.
It’s clear (again) that much of Bernie’s 2016 support and success was simply anti-Clinton sentiment. There is a cap on his support, and it is far lower than anyone supposed it was. He can’t possibly win the primary. It’s over. The only reason to continue the campaign is ego.
You misunderstand my theory. My theory is that he can’t accomplish a damned thing except feed his own ego by continuing.
In 2008, the person pulling out late was a lifelong, die-hard capital D Democrat.
In 1992 the person who left late was a lifelong, die-hard capital D Democrat.
In 2004 and 2000, the person leaving the race early was a die-hard capital D Democrat.
In 2016, the person leaving the race in June spent the previous 12 months running not only against the candidate but against the entire party as well.
There’s a huge difference
We’ll see what happens in Arizona, I guess, Sarah, but I think the question now isn’t so much whether Sanders has a real shot to win but what is best for his movement. It would not seem like taking a bunch of 20-and 30-point losses would improve its credibility.
BTW, COVID-19 has been an event that politically has helped Biden a great deal as well as an unintended consequence. People trust his judgment more on the outbreak.
Because, like Trump, all he cares about is the spotlight.
Sanders doing well in Cook County which is Chicago, and home to about 2/3 of IL voters. Only trailing Biden by 400 votes there in very early returns.
Maybe he thinks he can finally win a nomination if he kills off all the old people.