Oh it might get it passed but it will make Brexit rancor last much longer imho.
I can’t follow all this crazy crap, so bear with me.
Is May offering her resignation as an enticement to get folks to vote for her plan? Does she want them to support it? Or does she want them to not support it?
Yes.
grrrrrrr
She wants them to approve her deal. Then she is enticing them that once she is gone someone competent can lead the next phase of negotiations with the EU
Its hardly a compelling case “Let me drive the bus over the cliff then when we are over the cliff someone else can drive.”
“Let me have this one and I’ll go away” seems like a really bad negotiation position.
I mean, and again I’m not following the details here, it makes more sense for them to say, “Nah, fuck you.” and she’ll probably leave anyway.
Crazy to me that its Donald Tusk is now representing the interests of the Remain majority/minority more than May or Corbyn. Astonishing really.
In a stirring intervention, the European council president has praised those who marched on the streets of London and the millions who are petitioning the government to revoke article 50.
Speaking to the European parliament, Tusk reprimanded those who voiced concerns about a potential lengthy extension to article 50 in the event of the Commons rejecting the withdrawal agreement again this week.
Tusk said: “Let me make one personal remark to the members of this parliament. Before the European council, I said that we should be open to a long extension if the UK wishes to rethink its Brexit strategy, which would of course mean the UK’s participation in the European parliament elections. And then there were voices saying that this would be harmful or inconvenient to some of you.
“Let me be clear: such thinking is unacceptable. You cannot betray the 6 million people who signed the petition to revoke article 50, the 1 million people who marched for a people’s vote, or the increasing majority of people who want to remain in the European Union.”
She will, but by that point Article 50 may have been revoked. Or a long extension agreed, which the ERGers seem unreasonably afraid of. They really don’t seem very capable of playing a long game.
I suspect a lot of it has to do with re-election concerns; this will probably hang like an albatross around their necks and provide easy fodder for opponents.
Unless they themselves bring down the government, they’re not facing re-election until long after an extension will be over. And, besides, the vast majority of them are in extremely safe seats.
To be fair to Leave MP’s many of them are in seats which are still very Leave so they can fairly say they are representing the will of their voters.
Maidenhead (May’s constituency) when Leave with 55% for example even though she campaigned against it.
Islington North (Corbyn’s) went remain with 78%, which rather puts his pro Brexit views against his own voters.
You forgot being very well off as a factor.
Britain: We’re going to do this really dumb thing! <leaves EU>
US: Hold my beer. <elects Donald Trump>
UK: I’m gonna need you to take your beer back. Hold mind too. <does crazy stuff>
On the contrary, they have played a long game, and had thought they had won, because they never worried to much about pesky details.
With every month that passes their position is weaker. I don’t see how they turn that around within destroying the Tory party. It’s now or never for them.
Events have moved on since you posted this. Many of the high profile ERG members are now backing the deal I think. Some of the 22 irreconcilables who wrote a letter to the telegraph saying they would never back the deal are backing the deal. There’s 8 more votes from Labour and independents. It’s not there yet, but it’s as close as anything else is.
Anyway, he has openly said he will block a vote even if it is the will of the house that one be held, so I’m not sure what your point is.
One think that was noted in last weeks debate (Anna Soubry I think) is how May and the Brexiteers are driving out of the party the pro business groups who have so long supported it. That feels like a change. Where pro business voters and groups now go is more of an open question.
I think conflating May and the Brexiteers here is a mistake. Business seems pretty relaxed about the WA - it’s May’s incompetence that concerns them.
The ERG on the other hand are absolutely on an ideological crusade and don’t care about the picture for business.
There’s also this:
“Moves to create barriers to trade with the EU would force UK companies to strike up deals elsewhere, directly profiting companies backing the emerging markets.”
That sounds like dubious logic to me, and it’s the one line justifying a rather dramatic headline.
There are much stronger cases against JRM than this kind of spun up nonsense.
It seems even worse for those influenced by her offer. “I totally hate your awful plan but I will vote for it if you promise to go away” hardly sounds like responsible representation.