California Ballot Propositions 2020 GE

I will come back to discuss this substantively in more detail later, but basically I have a very strong emotional reaction to anti-tax messages especially anti-tax messages in the California context. I am of the age where I saw the terrible and massive impact of foolish anti-tax policies, often promoted by sloppy, deceptive and/or bad faith arguments, with substantial political and economic effect on California.

So, to the degree I was hostile in tone or dismissive, I apologize as I have no basis to pick on you in particular @Pyrhic. I have an emotional response based on a lot of CA history and personal experience and I shouldn’t take that out on you. Therefore I apologize for the tone of my post.

More substantively, there is much to say and I will post later after I have finished my game of Terraforming Mars on Tabletop Sim.

So I’ve had a chance to look at your post more substantively, Pyrhic. The heart of your substantive complaint, Pyhric, is that you don’t like the way property value appraisal works? Because appraisal is a pretty normal method, used for taxes, and for buying and selling property, taking out lines of credit, and so forth. And yes, big local transactions can affect that, but so can many other things. But even more importantly, an increase in appraised property value has many benefits: it means the property owner can borrow more against that property or list it for a higher price, etc. etc. It’s my view that you are exaggerating the downsides of appraisal-based property taxes and cherry picking the fairly, shall we say, unique snowflake example of Google, for example. I don’t find that argument convincing, frankly.

As to the argument about pass-through of taxes onto consumers and so forth, yes there is some truth to that, but I have zero faith that the property owners are not also being affected in a major way. Think about this: for the last 30 to 40 years, commercial property taxes in CA, have lagged FAR behind the increase in commercial property values, and yet, as you say, those savings by the property owners certainly don’t appear to have magically transferred over to businesses and consumers. Cost of living and cost of doing business in CA are in fact on the high side (which IMO is a separate issue from the tax issue).

But there’s a bigger point here. Society and government need tax revenue to run. CA needs taxes to have good schools and good roads and all the things we depend on to create the underlying infrastructure (in all senses of the word) for stability, prosperity and opportunity. So if you are going to oppose a particular tax increase, what is the solution?

In CA over the last 40 years, the groups that passed Prop 13 have not just passed that initiative: they passed others, and also worked with groups like the commercial property plaintiffs to win anti-tax court cases, AND they have opposed every effort to reform Proper 13 or its progeny, AND they have opposed every effort to stabilize California’s tax revenue stream, including opposition to sales taxes (including a HUGE battle a few years back opposing a half cent sales tax increase - a MASSIVE fight over a half cent tax, I kid you not) AND they have opposed not just every sales tax, but every income tax, and every gas tax, every car registration fee, every local tax, every city tax, every county tax, every library tax, and so on. I mean, it’s a joke. If they had their way, CA would be a third world country with almost no government ability to pay for anything.

On top of all that, there’s been a huge amount of misinformation over the years by the anti-tax crusaders.

So I simply do not trust anti-tax messages in CA, even if well meant. A reasonable, balanced, tax reform plan; that I can deal with. Or opposing particular taxes while having other ideas on how to raise the needed revenue, that’s reasonable. Having an honest opposition party to ask in good faith, “Well how are you going to pay for that?” is reasonable. But that’s not what we have in CA.

CA was starved of tax revenue for decades. We have underinvested in education, especially at the UC and Cal State levels. Our statewide infrastructure, both transportation and energy (especially energy) is desperate for improvement. We have a huge vibrant economy and are fighting our way back, but finding reasonable sources of government revenue is absolutely necessary. Nobody likes paying taxes but it has to be done. Opposing taxes is such a political cheap shot most of the time. Just as you say “there is no free money”, well that cuts both ways. You don’t get to live in a stable, prosperous society that has good infrastructure, and good education systems, and good health systems, and all of the necessities of a developed democracy without paying taxes. There is no free money, and that includes the people who want to “freely” enjoy a stable developed society without paying for it. And paying for it means paying reasonable taxes.

Now, we can argue a great deal about what constitutes reasonable taxes, and about the mechanics of that, which is fine. I personally prefer non-micro-managed, progressive taxes, primarily focused on income, and I would prefer to reduce or remove most consumption and sales taxes. I do think it makes sense to supplement income taxes with property and/or wealth taxes, although I want those to be progressive, and possibly indexed to income as well, and also generally of smaller impact than income taxes. However, the fight in CA for decades has been to find any source of tax revenue as the anti-tax idiots of the Howard Jarvis Foundation and their brethren have opposed every tax I can remember, without limitation or reservation. And that’s a recipe for anarchy IMO.

Yeah, that’s my usual beef with the Proposition system generally - like, aren’t we supposed to have legislators to figure this stuff out?

But, having seen a John Oliver spot on dialysis, I took a bit more interest in this one.

Still don’t know what to do. The rhetoric of the pro/con positions is always annoying too. There’s always some soulless corporation who doesn’t want you to vote yes/no.

Well like Oliver said, long video, the number one thing you can do is be an organ transplant donor. People on dialysis are very sick and they will get sicker .

As for the pros and cons, the for profit centers tend to pop up around the full service health centers to take profitable services form the groups that do both, those that lose money and and those that make it. If you look at the industry, this has happened many, many times in the past. I’m not saying all for profits are bad, persay, just saying that the ones that specialize in procedures like this tend to exist in areas where they can absolutely make a profit.

Dialysis is not a minor thing though, despite how amazing the tech is. It surprises me they don’t have physicians on staff at all times, but yeah that’s going to cost.

It does say physicians or nurse practitioners. I know nurse practitioners aren’t cheap, but I presume they are cheaper than MDs?

I think someone showed a graph that shows that Davita is hugely against this. This leads me to believe that they don’t have physician or nurse practitioners on staff which means they would have to hire them. They will likely use that justify increased costs and then they might even use it as means to demand more payment. If that fails and the for profits don’t get the returns they demand, which happens in the past is now that the “extra” profit is gone, the existing health systems will need to absorb those patients.

In any case, they’re both highly skilled individuals, and I think whether they get paid the same as a physician varies by state and service and the insurance. There were arguments not long ago about trying to use NPs as a stop gap for the primary care providers shortages.

But for Davita, this is all about government money. Oliver is basically right. ESRD is covered by the government, Medicare, and it’s not age dependent. It’s one of those outside what people think of when they think of Medicare for old people. You can get Medicare no matter how old you are if your kidneys just no longer work *there are some requirements many/most meet.

I don’t know what Medicare would pay an NP or even an MD for a private institute like that, but the fact there are these giant for-profit institutes out there specializing in only one kind of care tells you there are profits to be had there. They would bail if there wasn’t.

In a major market, a salaried primary care NP will make low six figures, a salaried primary care MD will make $200K, give or take a bit. Primary care MDs in more remote markets can make quite a bit more, as do those who pick up additional hours (either through per diem work or just a practice structure that supports OT or equity).

Though I don’t particularly care if the profits of the large dialysis providers take a hit, the prop as written seems like it would be a big increase to the cost of care as a bottom-line effect… which does lead me to the position that someone should be weighing pros and cons more carefully and with more nuance than a ballot proposition tends to.

That’s basically my take on the dialysis Prop: it may well be a good idea but it shouldn’t be enacted via Proposition: too complicated, too technical, etc. This is an example of why you need a Legislature with a staff and committees to study detailed stuff like this and make appropriate laws.

Isn’t the other value of a Proposition that you can bypass a legislature that’s hopelessly blocked by lobbying money?

Interestingly enough, the Zuck is putting money behind passing the split rolls reform to Prop 13. 11 million:

FWIW, I do believe that CA needs to address this loophole which allows large chunks of property to never be re-assessed, as they never change hands due to corporate ownership structures.

As time has passed I have soured on propositions as a way to govern. So now I basically start with the attitude of voting against all of them. I don’t always end up that way, but damn, the legislature should just do it’s job and quit leaving these things up to idiot voters who go with the best ad campaigns.

Since I moved to CA 13 years ago, I have ignored all ads and relied on the voter’s guides from the state and city. I look for who’s lying, and I vote against them. A couple years ago the vaping industry sponsored a proposition deliberately designed to look like a way of increasing restrictions on vaping, but whoops — to increase restrictions first we have to repeal all the restrictions we passed last year. It was pretty shameless.

This is also really fun every year because in many cases the only opinions given against the proposition come from elderly cranks. A few years back there was a proposition saying the SFPD had to issue a complete report on any use of officer weapons, and some old nut wrote a long rant about how only the invention of the modern police force in Europe ended the problem of public dueling.

Put my ballot in the mail today. Damn that was a lot of propositions!

I used https://votersedge.org/ca for research.

Reminder about https://california.ballottrax.net if you want to track your mail in ballot.

Thanks! Ballot was accepted even though it was dropped into a mailbox with a “THIS MACHINE KILLS FASCISTS” sticker on it.

Ha, nice.

I’ll have to tackle my comments on the initiatives one at a time, because this would be way too long, and I’m unsure how many I’ll try to cover. I’ll start with the likely but unfortunately doomed Prop 23, regarding dialysis clinics.

First, for all of my comments, keep in mind that with nearly 40 million people in California now, nothing gets on the state initiative ballot without some big money behind it. If you can’t afford a regiment of paid signature gatherers across the state, you’re not getting anything on the ballot. Then if you can’t afford an advertising blitz once your initiative is on the ballot, you’re going to lose. So the first thing I do on all of these is follow the money to see where the money is coming from and what goals the funding groups have.

This became a little easier in 2014 when the Califorrnia Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) started posting lists of the top 10 contributors for and against ballot initiatives (and candidates, but that’s a different issue). Here’s the link to the FPPC Top-10 Contributors site. The FPPC’s list only includes, “the top 10 contributors to committees primarily formed to support or oppose state ballot measures and independent expenditure committees supporting or opposing state candidates that raised at least a million dollars.” So the list doesn’t include contributions from general committees (like a political party) or contributions under $1 million. When it comes to ballot initiatives, money from those sources is relatively so low they are irrelevant, so we’re not missing much of the big picture by excluding them.

My wife’s last job (before her health forced her to quit was working permanently) was with a non-profit that supervised & evaluated all of the dialysis centers in a big chunk of the LA area (there’s a bunch of these groups, hers covered basically the north & west side of Los Angeles, including the the San Fernando Valley, and to the northeast the San Gabriel Valley). Without fail, every quarter, every year, the dialysis centers with the worst patient outcomes (quality of life and additional lifespan), most infections, most complaints, least staffing, and highest death rates were the for-profit ones who are now against Prop 23. They used the same scare tactics to annihilate Proposition 8 in the November 2018 election. Prop 8 would have limited dialysis centers to a 15% profit, on the idea that the dialysis companies would then have to spend the extra money on more staff, maintenance, sanitation, equipment, etc. The money supporting Prop 8 came mostly from the healthcare worker unions because they were hoping it will create more jobs. With all of my wife’s health issues, we have come to know more than the average number of nurses and healthcare workers, so I like to think there’s some concern about patient welfare driving the unions as well (I could write an essay about the differences between what a union does & wants versus what its members do and want, but I’ll save that for another time).

So Prop 23 is the same song, second verse. If you look up Prop 23 on the FPPC site, you’ll see only a single entry in support of Prop 23, the “SEIU United Healthcare Workers West Political Action Committee.” They have contributed a total of $5,560,000. Sounds like a lot, until you look at the opposition side.

The donor list against Prop 23 has five entries, and includes the same giant for-profit dialysis companies that continually received poor or failing ratings from my wife’s former employer (which no longer exists, after being swallowed by a large for-profit version). Here’s the five listed “No on 23” donors and the amounts donated as of the time I write this post:

1 DaVita, Inc. DC + $66,766,553
2 Fresenius Medical Care KS + $28,780,597
3 US Renal Care, Inc. TX - $6,858,924
4 Dialysis Clinic, Inc. TN - $600,000
5 Satellite Heatlhcare, Inc. CA - $400,000
Total from top contributors $103,406,074

(Side note: Wow, the forum software did a excellent job of copy-pasting that table!)

Having a plus symbol means that donor has continued to make donations. A minus symbol means that donor has not donated any more, just the initial amount shown. So DaVita & FMC clearly continue shoveling money into the No on 23 campaign, and at the time I write this are outspending the healthcare unions 20:1. I asked my wife her opinion about the quality of care delivered by these large donors, and she politely described DaVita and FMC as “horrible,” and went on in some detail about their numerous, continued inspection failures and poor patient outcomes. She didn’t recognize the others, and thought the bottom two maybe were home dialysis providers, but I haven’t looked into them beyond that. (BTW, she also said that if you unfortunately require dialysis, the best results were always home dialysis. It is expensive, but the infection rates, length & qualify of life, etc. were always significantly better than any clinic. But because of the expense, it is hard to get covered by insurance.)

One thing that caught my eye is that Prop 23 would prohibit dialysis clinics from closing or significantly reducing their size without approval from the California Department of Public Health (because finding another dialysis location near a patient and with available capacity can sometimes take a while, and dialysis patients don’t have that time). In other words, despite the three or four patients that “No on 23” has managed to find who say that Prop 23 will kill them, right now there’s nothing stopping DaVita or FMC from simply closing or shrinking a less profitable location without notice. So if anyone is going to be killing patients by closing dialysis clinics, it is DaVita and FMC, and Prop 23 actually creates protections against that. Their ads are completely vague about why clinics might close after Prop 23, because they don’t want to say the actual reason: it would be DaVita or FMC deciding a clinic wasn’t profitable enough with the new staff & reporting requirements. But they would need the CDPH approval to do that if Prop 23 passes, so nobody is going to suddenly lose their access to dialysis and die. The dialysis giants will continue making high profits, and neither company has run for Bankruptcy Court after putting $105 million into their campaign against Prop 23 (so far), only two years after spending over $111 million to shoot down Proposition 8 and its 15% profit limit. The “No on 23” ads are incredibly misleading, and the truth is not the scary picture that flood of advertising is painting.

So, my recommendation is vote Yes on 23. My wife further recommends everyone pay attention to their renal health, because being on dialysis sucks.

That was true when the initiative process was added to the California Constitution as part of the Progressive reforms, but it isn’t now. The initiative process was added in 1911, when California had about 2.5 million residents, and not the 40 million it has now. To qualify for the ballot, a petition to create or amend a statute needs a number of signatures equal to 5% of the state’s electors. A petition to amend the California Constitution needs signatures from 8% of electors. According to the Secretary of State, those currently work out to 623,212; and 997,139 valid signatures. You’re going to want to submit signed petitions about 50% higher than that to ensure you have enough valid signatures, so really you’re looking at getting almost a million signatures for a statue, or 1.5 million signatures for an Amendment. That’s a lot of people to pester outside of Target or Walmart, and nobody is going to be able to get enough volunteers to gather that many valid signatures. Last I looked a few years ago, paid signature gathering companies charge between $1.50 and $2.00 per signature, and that’s the only way you are getting an initiative on the state ballot. Throw in your staff, lawyers, and other overhead, and it’s going to cost $4-$5 million just to get on the ballot. California’s growth has eliminated the ability of concerned citizens or groups of concerned citizens to ever get an initiative on the state ballot, it is only a tool for the extremely wealthy. Those aren’t earthquakes, it is all of the Progressives rolling over in their graves.

Since California ballot initiatives have become far more expensive and risky than a good lobbying office, especially against well-funded or well-organized opposition, you are much better off just maintaining your lobbying/contribution spend than trying a ballot initiative. Ballot initiatives are just a very expensive last resort for when you completely fail in Sacramento, like the gig worker companies did. I have no idea what they spent on lobbyists and campaign contributions (based on one successful bill I know about from a few years ago, campaign contributions alone were probably in the $50-$60 million range), but they still completely failed. Now the “Yes on 22” campaign has received almost $190 million in contributions (so far) to try to change that legislative loss. Again, the initiative process is proving itself to be absolutely beyond the reach of all but a handful of people and industries.

Thank you for the input and feedback in this thread. I especially appreciated @Balasarius summary picture. It was all handy as I researched.

100% agreed! My wife and I referred to this thread on a regular basis as we were doing research on all of this stuff for our ballots the other evening. Thank you to everyone!

So props were kind of a mixed bag here in CA. Nothing really to cheer about. Some of the big ones went the wrong way.

Passed

Failed

Failed

Passed

Failed. What the fuck?

Passed

Failed

Failed

Uber and Lyft’s money was well spent. This passed

Failed

Passed

Failed because law and order racism