If the good guys keep getting killed by the bad guys, at what point to they shoot back? Right now it’s fists and the occasional molotov. The bad guys have para-military gear, but so far they’re driving cars into crowds and using medieval weapons like bows and swords because they’re insane. When some Free Citizens open fire on a crowd of protesters, after eating Subway sandwiches, when do they fight back?
I hope it never gets there. But, there are people trying to see that it does. And if we have shooting clashes in the streets, we’re in a civil war, you can bet Russia will try to inflame it and arm whichever side is outgunned (which will be the good guys). If the police and national guard have M4s, and use them, what does the other side fight back with?
Trig you’re a constant voice of reason, which is appreciated. You keep coming back to how the institutions will save us, but the institutions are only as good as the people upholding them. Who do we have faith in now to uphold the institutions? Rank and file members of the FBI, CIA, and other government orgs? Because the leadership has all been replace with Trump’s lackeys.
The bad guys, in the frame you are talking about are less than 30% of the population. I say less than because I don’t actually know the percentage of the militant groups but I know they’re a part of the Trump base and that’s not even 30%. There is no bulk here. This whole idea of a white supremacy led military takeover is just a wet dream these often fat, middle-aged guys have. I mean have you seen them? The wouldn’t even be able to get up a slight hill.
Our military has a lot of minorities in it. It’s not a sure thing what they would do but blow a bunch of people up because some fat old white guy with a bow and arrow wants it isn’t going to be the reason.
I get the concern. I understand the fear but this white supremacy thing is fueled by lies, hiding behind the internet followed by literal sobbing when they’re caught precisely because a lot of them can’t do shit in actual life. They have to rely on manipulation to even exist.
My concern is White Supremacy is deeply rooted in the police departments around the country. The sides are Police and Trumpers vs the people. The national guard would likely be called to aid the police and there would be defections for sure.
I hope it doesn’t get there, really. I saw a picture of DC on fire last night and it shook me. I don’t know why that was the one to get to me. It was the image of our government, the stability of our nation, the seat of power in the USA, literally burning. And it deserves to. So I guess I do know why.
This only works if GOP state officials could hand the election to Trump. But they can’t.
The governors of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are all Democrats. They aren’t going to “wobble”, they are going to send their electoral votes where they properly belong. And if they belong to Biden, then he will have his majority in the EC and there is nothing more Trump can do.
Even in my pessimistic scenarios, I’m not thinking he’ll be successful, just causing chaos. I don’t think it’d be anywhere near 43%, but what if it were a 3%? 5%? What percentage of the population was out there looting, stockpiling gasoline, and lighting shit on fire this weekend? A tiny fraction a I’m sure, but they still caused substantial damage across the country.
Just talking hypotheticals, not making predictions.
Yeah, a fair amount of the them are, and they are included in that 30%. It’s not like we take Trump’s base and like carve out the police and say okay these aren’t counted.
The bulk of these guys in this white supremacy militant sect want to do the Civil War over again and this time show them for reals how it works are middle-aged white guys who kind of breakdown when they’re caught and held accountable. They’re not strong. They’re loud. They’re bottom feeders, and one of the reasons they hold onto this racial hierarchy the USA has allowed to continue is because they only sleep well at night believing as much as a bottom feeder they are, they are not at the actual bottom; those OTHERS are. If someone pulls that away from them, suddenly they can’t claim that anymore.
So yeah, sprinkled in with these angry middle-aged white man with a identity that only exists in a world where he’s not at the bottom are some asshole cops. That does not win them a war.
It is implausible in the extreme, and not because of the strength of institutions, but because of the way self-interest works. States that nullify / cancel / refuse to certify the election send no electors to elect the President while other states do and Biden wins. So red states won’t do that, they will do what it takes to send their electors. Any fight about the results will take place in the House and Senate and, on January 21, those bodies will turn over. States that didn’t hold elections or nullified them will have no representation, so the Democrats will control both bodies and that is the end of Donald J. Trump. If through extreme stupidity there is no President-elect on January 21, Nancy Pelosi is President.
Red states will not surrender their congressional representation to support a moronic and impossible coup attempt by Donald Trump. It’s a way of cutting their own throats, and they won’t do it.
I agree it’s extremely implausible, assuming all the Republican actors “play by the rules of the game”. Yet with Merrick Garland, Russian interference in our election, quid pro quo shaking down of our allies (Ukraine) and firing of inspector generals, we’ve seen repeated failures of institutional nerve.
Trump can’t do this by himself. What I find scarily plausible in Rightbug’s scenario is that red states follow Trump’s lead in declaring a “state of emergency” due to some combination of COVID resurgence, BLM protests, high unemployment and general social unrest. They don’t hold elections and call for other blue states to follow our leader in a time of crisis. The blue states go ahead and vote, but the red states don’t send electors and declare the Nov 3rd result as illegitimate and refuse to vacate power. The Constitution is clear, but we also thought it was clear on emoluments and Trump’s ability to shift money around on his own outside the legislative branch’s intent.
What seems very likely is a brazen attempt to muddy the waters of the Nov 3rd election as illegitimate due to mass nonparticipation from a good chunk of the country. If they don’t accept the Nov 3rd election as legitimate and refuse to give up their presidency, congressional seats and Senatorial seats pending a “real, legitimate election” after the state of emergency passes, who’s going to enforce their removal?
I share triggercut’s frustration with the defeatist mentality around here and the pessimistic election overthrow scenarios. It gets down to how we psychologically handle hope and fear. Seems like some folks need to articulate the worst possible scenario to mentally prepare for it or something while others don’t wish to give those fears that much power.
Put me in the latter camp. Enough with the onanistic derail already. Have some fucking faith in America and your fellow Americans. If you don’t have that these days, I get it, but keep it to yourself. Pull up your big boy pants and get to work.
Why do we have George Orwell’s 1984 as part of the required reading in middle schools? It’s hardly masturbatory pleasure in dystopian scenarios. It’s because understanding how bad things can get, in a carefully constructed and realistic way, prepares us to avoid those outcomes. I don’t take any “onanistic” pleasure in these scenarios, I find them scary and deeply unsettling.
But considering the potential “bad paths” from this moment helps us to identify the signs and push back more strongly earlier, rather than “having fucking faith in American and your fellow Americans”. Sorry, but after the last 4 years, I don’t think my fellow Americans have earned that degree of trust.
And, to be clear, I was just spit-balling a scenario because Triggercut put me on the spot and asked for one. I’m sure there are a million reasons why it wouldn’t/couldn’t play out that way. But, the general idea of muddying the water, stepping up voter suppression, vote manipulation or vote dismissal, jailing political appointments, dissolving congress, forcing a constitutional crisis of some sort, while unlikely, is not impossible. Democracies fall. It happens all the time and we have hard core authoritarians running in the majority now. Some of them are literal fascists.
I still think it’s a small possibility. I still think triggercut is likely correct. But it’s not impossible. That’s all I’m trying to say.
Edit to respond to rmorton: It’s not a defeatist attitude or some machochistic fantasy in imagining worst case scenarios. It’s legitimate concern based on what we know about authoritarians, fascists and the history of how past democracies have fallen. And I again emphasize that I think it’s unlikely but it’s dangerous to assume it’s impossible. Vote vote vote like your country depends on it and pray they don’t find a way to go full authoritarian.
Sorry for the detail from this very important thread. We could move this somewhere else possibly because I really don’t want to detail this critical thread.
This is what I meant by not because of the strength of institutions above. I don’t think you have to rely on the Republican actors “playing by the rules of the game.” Their own self-interest is what matters.
Assuming red state leaders are stupid enough to surrender their representation in Congress and cede the election to a Democrat (why on earth would they do this for Trump?), what happens next? What happens is, the House and the Senate are controlled by Democrats, and the winner of the Presidential election is Joe Biden, and on January 20 Chief Justice Roberts swears in Joe Biden.
The Secret Service and White House custodial staff will move Trump’s things to the driveway and bring up a car for him, and that will be that.
This won’t happen, but if it does, the Sergeant at Arms will ask the capital police to remove the former representatives, and they will be removed.
No they aren’t. They both have the power to certify the names of the electors in their states, and that’s the only power they need to stop these various unlikely scenarios.
And that power comes directly from the US Congress, so legislators in Madison and Raleigh cannot take it away.
Thanks. You’ve added some nice qualifiers that capture how I feel. There are lots of good Americans out there (for my values of good), but not enough in the right places for me to be totally confident about this November’s election.
