I would narrow down how Merkel got out of touch with immigration. It is not related to the EU where just about everyone agrees freedom of movement within the EU of is a great thing.
It was with her open door policy to Islamic immigration from the middle east and Syria in particular. She got out of touch and underestimated how deeply people value the secular culture and womens rights within Europe.
Having a few million people show up who do not share those values of a tolerant secular society was a huge test for the EU and Merkel failed it. A shame as she would have gone down as a great chancellor.
Absolutely, but that was all with the idea of “shared European Burden” in the forefront. FoM is inextricably entangled with the Immigration issue/Member-Nation Policies and comporting with EU Standards… She undertook a policy that benefited EU short-term and hurt her short-term politically at home.
I think she was arrogant I am afraid. Her bullying of smaller EU nations, particularly those border states who tried to stem the flow was a mistake.
Long term I think it will take many years for the EU to heal. They WILL heal of course and with the Brexit disaster and the transformation of the Republican party into full on opponent of democracy and reason, then the EU is clearly going to remain the leader of the free world. But its a diminished free world, no question.
It played right into the hands of many in the Eastern nation-states who see in EU a Franco-German Mittleeuropa gained without war. But also see equivocation when dealing with a now resurgent Russia. A toxic mix. Europe (as a political union) needs to be tough on Russia, not soft. Another error. Arrogance. Abandoning Nuclear Power, which then makes you even more dependent on Russian Natural Gas? Arrogance.
This is what American WASPs said about the Italians, the Greeks, the Spanish, the Irish, the Poles, the Chinese, etc: That they shouldn’t be allowed into the US because they didn’t share our secular cultural values. It was racism then, it’s racism now. Merkel wasn’t wrong IMO to oppose racism no matter how you dress it up. I imagine that, like many Germans, she felt a special responsibility to oppose it. It’s hard to look at Europe now and conclude that Merkel was wrong and that it was people like Viktor Orban who were right.
Are we aware that when Merkel’s party hardened their stance of immigration (in the two most recent elections) they lost votes? I doubt they’ll keep that tune for much longer.
That’s not what two of the three potential successors for CDU leadership are saying. Party polling/regional leaders indicates they lost votes because the tightening was seen as insufficient and ineffective. Check out the article.
Graph of most recent polling indicates that the whole “they are all becoming greens” thought isn’t true. AfD is gaining at the expense of CDU, not the Greens.
I posted this above, this is from Merkel’s preferred successor and her long-time protege, Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer:
Allies of Mr. Merz said his biggest challenge will come from Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer. The chancellor’s protégée, nicknamed “mini-Merkel” by the German press, has yet to outline her priorities. In private conversations, she has said voters’ anxieties about immigration should be taken seriously, signaling a possible shift from Ms. Merkel’s stance.
I think when it comes to immigration in Europe I think its multifaceted. I dont deny there are racists in Europe and Orban is an ass, but I also dont see how it can be denied there are many reasonable left/center voters who adamantly refuse to back down on womens rights (plus Blasphemey etc) and the secular state who are deeply uncomfortable with seeing what they regard as a religion of oppression gaining momentum in their countries.
Also the elephant in the room is Islam has brought terror and murder to Europe. I know we have not had a terrorist attack for a little while but lets not forget Europe has been under attack for years by numerous insane Islamic terrorists.
When some people in Europe look at the Muslim countries nearby and say “err no thanks” I dont see how they are being racist at all. Merkel would have been better served considering their concerns rather than running roughshod over them imho.
Yes, the white Anglo-Saxon Protestant Americans thought the same thing. Many of them still think the same thing. But if anything, European Union member constitutions, and EU human rights protections, and EU human rights courts are far stronger than are their counterparts in the US. So why were the Americans wrong about e.g. the danger of the Irish, while the Germans are right about the danger of the Syrians?
The last step of the chart shows Social Democrats, CDU and AfD losing and the Greens going up. CDU loses correlate both to Greens and AfD rises. Since early 2016 AfD and Greens track like crazy, so as many people are radicalizing left as they are right, and they come from both major parties (since they don’t track).
I get where you are going I just don’t think the comparison between American history in the 19th century and 21st century Europe is so useful here.
You may have a good point in many cases, just the usual fear/dislike of foreigners or race. I cant say what the motivations were/ are across Europe but I do think there was and is a difference in attitudes between EU freedom of movement and Muslim immigration.
To restate the obvious, I am an immigrant. I have a gut emotional pro immigrant response in every case and I fully understand we are dealing with individual human beings worthy of respect. So I dont want to come across as waving my hand and dehumanizing people who are desperate to get the hell out of a country engulfed by war and death.
I just think Merkel (and many EU leaders including Cameron at the time) should have thought much much harder about the right way to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Syria. Balancing helping good people who want a better life as well as the good people in their countries who want to keep their better way of life. Not thats its easy I recognise.
If it weren’t for the 2003 Iraq invasion, I think the West would have enough power to affect change in these countries. I just don’t think the West/US has enough power, now. We’re stretched too thin, relying on ~1 million** US soldiers and a handful from other countries.
** Total deployed, un-deployed, reservists, worldwide, etc.
I would also throw in here that many of the southern and eastern European countries most opposed to the Muslim immigration are historical victims of Islamic imperialism in the past as well.
Yeah I know it was hundreds of years ago but hey, this is Europe. You can never escape history in Europe.
See:: The Balkans. Where I deployed like 4 times. It shows just how easily the demographic/nationalist/ethnic perceptions in Europe can be thrown awry and lead to the most heinous of human crimes in the region.
Why I am so leery of people glibly proscribing “Oh, just do this” changes in Europe. “Just give up your national sovereignty”.
As a globalist, I don’t care about national sovereignty. But I don’t think the EU could defend the Balkan countries if it really had to. (Which was also the case in previous centuries. (Not sure about the exact dates.))
Sure. But others do. Particularly those who live there. And glibly saying “Oh you don’t need that” at a distance is really sophistry. And dangerous. Not speaking of you, Yak, but commentators, politicians, bureaucrats, etc.
a.) Thanks for going. NATO genuinely saved lives in the Balkans. So thank you.
b.) Yeah, I travelled through the Balkans in the 80’s and it was no picnic attitude wise. This goes for most of Europe but ask any random person what they think of country X within 300 miles and see their eyes flick away as they mentally go through the list of historical grievances against that country.
Escaping history was the main reason I left Europe. As someone who is half Irish/half English you can imagine why.
