Electoral College analysis from TNR

Everybody seems to get all excited over the latest poll favoring their candidate, figured some electoral college analysis might be a nice change of pace.


Basically, it breaks down like this:

First, the Guaranteed electoral votes:
Bush: 208
Kerry: 207

Electoral votes from tilting toss up states:
Bush: 44 (Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa)
Kerry: 36 (Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico)

States with no data or where it’s too close to call:
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4)
Colorado (9)
West Virginia (5)
Nevada (5)

All five of those states went to Bush in 2000.

Assuming that the tilting states fall the way they’re leaning and none, Kerry has to win Ohio and then win another 7 electoral votes to win this election. To get those 7 votes, he can:

a) Take back either Iowa (7) or Wisconsin (10) from Bush
b) Win Colorado (9)
c) Take 2 out of 3 of the small toss-ups (New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Nevada).