Fidel's Heir

Really interesting new yorker article on Hugo Chavez. He’s a real Huey Long character.

He knows how to put on a show:

Chávez then had a surprise: the FARC, he said, had just informed him that it was prepared to release six more hostages. Uribe spoke in urgent whispers with his aides. Chávez asked President Fernández if protocol could be broken to allow the mother of Ingrid Betancourt to come into the hall. After some commotion, Betancourt’s mother, Yolanda Pulecio, an elegant woman in her late sixties (and a former Miss Colombia), entered. With her was Piedad Córdoba, a flamboyant left-wing Colombian senator who has worked with Chávez in negotiations with the FARC, and who was wearing a white turban. Uribe looked furious; Chávez was showing that he, not Uribe, was the one who could save the hostages’ lives.

By now, some eight hours had gone by, and waiters brought the leaders plates of food while they talked. Finally, an agreement was worked out, as part of which Uribe promised, reluctantly, not to conduct new cross-border raids. Fernández asked Uribe and Correa to embrace. After some hesitation, they shook hands. Chávez walked up to Uribe and greeted him, too, and the crisis seemed to be at an end. Then, moments later, Correa began berating Uribe, who bristled. The other leaders in the room looked alarmed. Chávez swiftly spoke in mollifying tones to Uribe, who relaxed.

I walked out with Piedad Córdoba and Yolanda Pulecio. Córdoba was gleeful. She said that she and Chávez and Cristina Kirchner had planned everything in detail—the revelation about the new hostages, and Pulecio’s dramatic appearance.

Chávez had shown himself capable of sparking a regional confrontation and then, by defusing it, appearing as the peacemaker. It was similar to the moment in 1992 when he called off his coup attempt. Uribe understood that he had been temporarily outmaneuvered, and had responded to Chávez’s gesture. Both leaders, to an extent, could declare victory, although it was clear that this was just a skirmish in an ongoing conflict.

More seriously, what to do about Venezuela gets the predictably stupid and depressing response from McCain: selective moral outrage about quasi-dictators that don’t torture people for us, which is the new black for Republicans. By contrast, Obama impresses:

On June 7th, Chávez had also said, “Whoever is the next President of the United States, I’d like to start preparing the way to start working together.” When I asked Ana Navarro, an adviser to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, about the offer, she said, “Senator McCain thinks that Chávez is a charlatan and a thug. The Senator doesn’t trust Chávez, and does not think it worth getting into a back-and-forth with him.” Last year, Senator Barack Obama was asked in a debate if he would be willing to meet with leaders who are hostile to the United States—Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Chávez, and Castro—“without precondition.” Obama answered that he would, prompting Senators McCain and Hillary Clinton to suggest that he was naïve. Obama subsequently said that high on his agenda in any talks with Chávez would be addressing “the fomentation of anti-American sentiment in Latin America,” and “his support of the FARC in Colombia,” which, he said, was “not acceptable.

I wouldn’t call Chavez an heir to Castro. Castro’s brilliance was being a leader who was always careful enough in how he acted to avoid being overthrown. It’s no small feat, historically speaking, to lead a popular revolution and maintain power for so long afterwards.

Chavez reminds me more of a Kruschev in his flamboyant manner. At some point I suspect there will be a movement within his own supporters to replace him with someone less controversial.

He might be a brilliant showman, and politician as far as perception is concerned, as a result. However, his policies on their own are terrible. Uribe is just the other side of the same coin, the right-wing equivalent.

If by that you mean Uribe is a terrible showman with a brilliant head for policy who turned a failed narco-state into a functioning democracy, then yeah I agree with you 100%. But I’m a wee bit confused.

Functioning democracy? Well, if you consider that he is basically setting himself up to be leader-for-life part of a functioning democracy, maybe. Otherwise, he is very much the strong-man who brought stability by being elected at the muzzle of a rifle (he’s responsible for creating the paramilitaries), and then violently pursued the guerrillas by allowing the military forces to feed information to the paramilitary, which has led to numerous massacres of towns across the countryside. As for the narco-state, that was pretty much the success of the previous administrations, and particularly the constitution written in 1991.

Right now, this minute, Uribe is involved in no less than 3 criminal cases (most of which are against his close family, who of course were appointed or elected to positions of power) on corruption and drug-traffic charges. Allegations of congressional bribes, of dealings with criminals and con-artists; all of these have abounded. He has clashed with the judicial branch time and time again as he tries to expand his own power, and gathers speed for another “re-election”, which was entirely unconstitutional before he took office.

He’s just well-liked in the U.S., given the positive coverage he receives opposite to Chavez.

Friday the 13th Part XII: Jason Takes Venezuela

He got an amendment passed that allowed him a single consecutive term. If he does it again, then maybe. He’s also the most effective President Colombia has had in decades, so you can see why they were willing to give him an eight year run instead of the normal four.

Otherwise, he is very much the strong-man who brought stability by being elected at the muzzle of a rifle (he’s responsible for creating the paramilitaries), and then violently pursued the guerrillas by allowing the military forces to feed information to the paramilitary, which has led to numerous massacres of towns across the countryside.

The paramilitaries that he disbanded? After spending years in talks with them? And disbanded with an agreement that was based on the post apartheid agreement set up by Mandela in South Africa?

Thousands of paramilitaries handed in their weapons and and agreed to testify about their crimes as part of the amnesty deal. Their leaders were imprisoned pending trial, and required to suspend their leadership of criminal actions – they were promised shorter sentences and protection from calls for extradition. About twenty of those that didn’t suspend their activities were shipped off to the United States recently to face criminal charges here over their drug businesses, along with much harsher jail sentences.

Yes, some of them are still engaging in all sorts of bad shit, but the vast majority have laid down their arms. That’s change you can believe in =D

As for the narco-state, that was pretty much the success of the previous administrations, and particularly the constitution written in 1991.
When Uribe came into power, most informed commentators were calling for Colombia to enter power sharing agreements with the FARC. They controlled vast swathes of the countryside and several towns. Now they’re barely holding on in a couple of tiny strongholds on the borders, their numbers reduced to a fraction of their pre-Uribe high. You’re also the first person I’ve ever heard of who thought that the presidency of Pastrana was anything other than a complete failure.

Pastrana has been accused of taking bribes, and there’s absolutely no doubt that the FARC used the negotiations under his watch and the demilitarized zones he established to expand their power.

Right now, this minute, Uribe is involved in no less than 3 criminal cases (most of which are against his close family, who of course were appointed or elected to positions of power) on corruption and drug-traffic charges.
Like his cousin, Mario Uribe? Who has received no special treatment, and is standing trial?

Allegations of congressional bribes, of dealings with criminals and con-artists; all of these have abounded. He has clashed with the judicial branch time and time again as he tries to expand his own power, and gathers speed for another “re-election”, which was entirely unconstitutional before he took office.
Allegations of this and that are pretty meaningless. Especially when one of the biggest, that he met with Pablo Escobar, is an unsubstantiated claim by one of Escobar’s whores. The reality of the situation is that this man has achieved what for several decades most people have considered impossible. Clashes with the judiciary are one thing, but the fact of the matter is that it is still independent enough to have ordered cases against Mario Uribe, despite his connections to Alvaro. He’s also, as far as I’m aware, not indicated a preference either way as far as seeking a third term. Given the amount of good achieved under his watch, I can’t say I’d be entirely opposed.

He’s just well-liked in the U.S., given the positive coverage he receives opposite to Chavez.
And he’s disliked in Europe because the FARC is seen as some sort of Robin Hood institution.

So the rampant bribery and corruption that has been alleged had nothing to do with it, hmm? It was all one big attaboy? No, I don’t think so.

The paramilitaries that he disbanded? After spending years in talks with them? And disbanded with an agreement that was based on the post apartheid agreement set up by Mandela in South Africa?

Thousands of paramilitaries handed in their weapons and and agreed to testify about their crimes as part of the amnesty deal. Their leaders were imprisoned pending trial, and required to suspend their leadership of criminal actions – they were promised shorter sentences and protection from calls for extradition. About twenty of those that didn’t suspend their activities were shipped off to the United States recently to face criminal charges here over their drug businesses, along with much harsher jail sentences.

The paramilitary disbandment is a revolving door. Some do go to jail, most are never charged, and return to reform the groups that had been supposedly dissolved. The leaders who subjected themselves to this law either get a sweetheart deal for standing tall, or extradited when their testimony is going to lead to smearing the administration in some way.

This has been, largely, a way to cover the collusion that existed between the military and criminal forces in Colombia.

Yes, some of them are still engaging in all sorts of bad shit, but the vast majority have laid down their arms. That’s change you can believe in =D

Utterly false. The Paramilitaries still have a strong presence in the countryside, controlling interests and illicit plantations, which increased from 78,000 hectares to 89,000 in the space of one year, according to the U.N.'s last report on the matter. The reason why they are not such a visible force anymore is that the recent defeats and setbacks the FARC has suffered relaxed the tension of the conflict. For crying out loud, they drove people to polling places in the countryside at gunpoint to vote for the motherfucker!

When Uribe came into power, most informed commentators were calling for Colombia to enter power sharing agreements with the FARC. They controlled vast swathes of the countryside and several towns. Now they’re barely holding on in a couple of tiny strongholds on the borders, their numbers reduced to a fraction of their pre-Uribe high. You’re also the first person I’ve ever heard of who thought that the presidency of Pastrana was anything other than a complete failure.

Informed commentators? Where are you getting THIS shiny little turd? The Farc did replace the central government in some regions, but it wasn’t because the government AGREED to it, but because they were so powerful the military couldn’t throw them out! The one exception to this rule was the “Distension” zone, done by the previous president, which was a George Bush-like horror of incompetence. That was three small towns where the FARC and the government agreed to meet in order to broker a peace deal. It immediately became asafe-haven for the guerrillas, predictably, and when these failed, the military retook those towns to find evidence of criminal activity.

Pastrana has been accused of taking bribes, and there’s absolutely no doubt that the FARC used the negotiations under his watch and the demilitarized zones he established to expand their power.

Yes, this would be the fuckup. He fled the country after his term was over.

Like his cousin, Mario Uribe? Who has received no special treatment, and is standing trial?

Funny, how witnesses and evidence have disappeared in this particular case. More ways to skin a cat than influencing the judiciary, which has been resistant to Uribe’s pressure all along. However, irate phonecalls from the president to the Supreme Justice Court over this case DO have the purpose of manipulating the investigation.

Allegations of this and that are pretty meaningless. Especially when one of the biggest, that he met with Pablo Escobar, is an unsubstantiated claim by one of Escobar’s whores. The reality of the situation is that this man has achieved what for several decades most people have considered impossible. Clashes with the judiciary are one thing, but the fact of the matter is that it is still independent enough to have ordered cases against Mario Uribe, despite his connections to Alvaro. He’s also, as far as I’m aware, not indicated a preference either way as far as seeking a third term. Given the amount of good achieved under his watch, I can’t say I’d be entirely opposed.

And he’s disliked in Europe because the FARC is seen as some sort of Robin Hood institution.

The Europeans are, quite frankly, retarded for the attitude that they take regarding the FARC. But you are taking the opposite end of the spectrum. Uribe was not the answer to Colombia’s problems, because despite the stability he has been credited with bringing (which, in fact, he didn’t. It was the result of a much longer process, mostly done by NGOs), Colombia only appears to be better off. There are deep-seated social problems, hundreds of thousands of displaced farmers living in mendicity in the cities (Colombia is amongst the top ten countries in terms of refugees), and low intensity violence. The drug trade is still running rampant, controlled mostly by the paramilitaries you claim no longer exist, and corruption is just as bad as it ever was, both in congress (which has become an Uribe echo chamber) and in the executive branch.

Lastly, he is seeking reelection, he’s just being coy about it. He did something similar last time, where he pressed congress off-stage so that they would be the ones to propose reelection.

Aeon… seriously. Don’t opine on a topic when your primary source of information is the Economist. I think that magazine rocks, but it has a heavy slant. I had always assumed that people would be able to see through the slant, but apparently I was mistaken.

It’s an awesome magazine, but it’s nothing more than a data point. To accept its analysis as fact is foolish. The magazine was an unapologetic booster for the deposition of Mohammed Mossadegh, which to this day is a disgrace to America.

Tankero I’m stumped for time this weekend, so I’d like to take a rain check replying til Monday. Hopefully you won’t cry with anticipation =D

Do you ever have anything to say that isn’t a bitchy comment about another poster? You’re content free more often than Adree, and at least he’s got funny pictures.

You better bring roses and a “I’m Sowwy!” balloon on Monday.

Jerk.