It's time to have a 2020 Presidential Election thread


#845

Sadly, I think Trump is more popular than Cruz, so Beto likely doesn’t carry Texas if the election was today. But an election cycle could change that.


#846

Oh, and you don’t have to be a scientist in a field to listen to the scientists in that field, look at the data, decide they’re right, and then start saying so. Doesn’t make you a scientist, but it does make you a well-informed person who can make statements based in fact.


#847

#848

Hey! In about an hour we’re going to be running a big ol’ Swarm Intelligence session with people who are either likely Democratic Primary voters in 2020. If that’s you and you want to join us, we’d love to have you.

You can just visit https://swarm.ai
You’ll be prompted for an Entry Code, which is 920-949
The system will then ask you to put in a temporary username for the session, and you’ll be brought into the swarm room. We start things off at 12:00 pm ET/11 am CT/9 am PT. We’ll be there for about an hour, maybe longer, so feel free to drop in at any time. :)

(I’m “ChrisH1” in the swarm session, btw.)


#849

In an ideal world, no, but I think the Warrens and the Bernies and the Harrises still don’t fully get the urgency of the question – or, if they do, they believe it is not politically palatable, which amounts to the same thing.

This is all probably moot. But in a unicorns-n-ponies world, the president would know, and have the courage to communicate, that climate change trumps all other issues.


#850

I hope so, as it’s right there in the sentence which Timex quoted!


#851

BTW, swarm was bullish on Bernie; Harris and Biden also fared well.

Bearish on Booker and Klobuchar…

Warren was the kind-of star of the show. Fared much better with the swarm of Democrats than I expected. Inslee also over-performed.

Biggest issue that these voters were concerned with for 2020: Electability, can beat Trump.


#852

Bernie, Harris, and Biden seem to be the candidates each wing of the Dems are focusing on, and who each wing of the party things is most electable and will do best vs Trump.

This is why I think the primary will be nasty, and second-tier candidates will underperform.

Booker and Klouchbar are the most disliked candidates among the progressive crowd, so I’m not surprised they underperformed.

As for Warren, I think her issue is that her base is going with Bernie because they want to beat the establishment, and they don’t want to split their votes. They like Warren, but even the folks who prefer Warren to Bernie are more interested in making sure a progressive beats a non-progressive. There’s real anger towards the establishment that’s lingering from 2016. If something happens to Bernie, they’ll all go to Warren fast- Bernie’s fans mostly like Warren , except for the fringe that demands a dem soc instead of a soc dem.


#853

So for perspectives sake I reminded myself this morning what the 2008 and 2016 democratic nomination polls were saying early march the year before the election…

2016:
Clinton ~ 60%, Biden ~ 15%, Bernie ~ 5%

2008:
Clinton ~ 37%, Obama ~ 24%

Bernie’s figure in March 2015 goes to show how much can change in a year, no one is really out of the game just yet. Nevertheless, the fact that Harris is only polling around 12% at the moment, you’d have to think her chances are low if Biden runs even so far from the start of the primaries. Of course, I have no idea.


#854

Watching him now on CNN and damn if Mr Buddha Judge doesn’t warm my squishy, liberal heart.


#855

Democratic Convention for 2020 will be held in Milwaukee, just announced.

DNC doing their part to ensure that this time their nominee does spend at least a little time in Wisconsin.


#856

I’ve been watching Pete Buttigieg - that guy is the real deal and my favorite candidate thus far. I know he is way off the radar and people are concerned about his experience - but he is articulate, friendly, open-minded, thoughtful and has lots of good ideas.

I’m hoping he can survive until he can get more of a national spotlight.


#857

I think many who hear him have similar reactions.

Here’s conservative-but-never-trumper Jennifer Rubin with an effusive op-ed:


#858

LOVE me some Mayor Pete.

But I think he’s either running for a cabinet post or to increase his name rec to run for a statewide office in Indiana…at least this time out.


#859

There have been other cases - lost in antiquity - where someone has accidentally gained the presidency when they never intended to win!

I like Buttigieg too.


#860

I’m curious about the mechanics of the Swarm:

How did you structure the questions? Was it something like, “Do you want Warren to be the nominee? Very Much, Yes, Maybe, Not Really, No Way”?

How were the issues arranged?


#861
  1. First we did some issues-related questions to see how the swarm would answer and offer us a point of comparison to a Gallup poll from late last year and a Monmouth poll from February. (Fun thing I probably shouldn’t disclose: in about 5 minutes with 30 Democrats, we got the same ranked results – to an issue – that Gallup and Monmouth got in their full bore polling.)

  2. Then we presented the top 7 candidates based on Harry Enten’s CNN power rankings, going through them one at a time. Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Beto, Sanders, Biden, and Harris. We asked the swarm to rate each on a 5-point scale from Strong to weak on: Policy Views, Name recognition, Charima/intangibles, and Electability.

  3. Then we did candidate head-to-heads with these seven, for our data team. Basically matching up each of these seven in every combination possible, saying “Which candidate would Democrats prefer?”

  4. Finally, we did the full magilla with 16 declared major candidates as an iterative elimination. That’s a process where we start with all the candidates and the swarm chooses the weakest of those to remove. Then we repeat with the remaining candidates, again and again and again. In the end, we get down to just two candidates and we switch and ask which is preferred, head-to-head.

Our data team can use the results from #3 and #4 to then create a ranked order and also to put in ranges between preferences between the candidates.

OH! One other important thing that we constantly – like every 3-5 minutes – reminded this group: we did NOT ask any “You” questions. (Such as “Which do you prefer?”) Instead, all questions – as is our best practice – were generalized: “Which will Democratic voters like you prefer?” or “Which will Democrats in general prefer?”


#862

Mayor Pete’s town hall on CNN last night. He was great.


#863

NBC’s Mike Memoli, who is said to basically be the Biden Whisperer as far as interpreting Uncle Joe’s implied statements and whatnot, thinks the Veep will announce that he’s in soon.


#864

I kind of wish Joe would just be the godfather of the Democratic party at this point. I don’t really want him as the nominee, but I guess there’s plenty of time for me to change my mind. I also thought it was maybe time for Pelosi to move aside, but I’ve done a complete 180 on that.