I’m a transplant, I’m watching the Rockies home opener from bed this morning at 7am. I get to watch a few innings in the morning once a week or so. But I follow the season via blogs and such.
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - UNDER ****
New York Yankees 91½ - OVER
San Francisco Giants 88½ - UNDER ****
Colorado Rockies 86½ - OVER
Texas Rangers 86½ - UNDER
Minnesota Twins 86 - OVER ****
Chicago Cubs 81½ - UNDER
New York Mets 77½ - OVER
Washington Nationals 72½ - OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½ - OVER
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ - UNDER ****
San Francisco Giants 88½ - OVER ****
Texas Rangers 86½ - OVER
Minnesota Twins 86 - UNDER
Cincinnati Reds 85½ - OVER
Milwaukee Brewers 85½ - OVER
Chicago White Sox 84½ - OVER
Detroit Tigers 84 - UNDER
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 - OVER ****
Arizona Diamondbacks 72½ - UNDER
I’m not worried about my Phillies/Rockies picks…yet. With the Phillies, 97 wins is still a high target, and with the Rockies, they’re going to have to do this for a few months before I buy into them.
Meanwhile, the Yankees, who have won 92 or more games 15 of the last 16 years, are looking like a nice best bet. :)
I considered picking in this thread, but I just follow the Mets and not the league as a whole. That said, I would have picked the Mets over. hahahahahahahaha!
At the moment, the Red Sox are on pace to finish 24 games under the opening day line of 95 wins. But that’s nowhere as bad as the Twins, who have had a dreadful start that would put them on pace to finish 33 games below the line of 86 wins. And I had the Twins as one of my best bets. (/facepalm)
On the other side, Cleveland is currently on pace to beat the Vegas line of 71 wins by 43 games. They’re already a quarter of the way there. :)
Hmm, how am I doing two months in? My picks, with projected win totals (in parentheses) based on where the teams are now:
Winning
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 (73) - UNDER
Colorado Rockies 86½ (76) - UNDER
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ (82) - OVER
New York Yankees 91½ (93) - OVER **
San Francisco Giants 88½ (88) - UNDER
Losing
Texas Rangers 86½ (87) - UNDER
Atlanta Braves 87½ (88) - UNDER
Los Angeles Angels 83½ (82) - OVER **
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ (98) - UNDER
Minnesota Twins 86 (51) - OVER **
I don’t think I’m winning the Twins. :P
Everything else looks like it’s in play, which I consider a small victory in itself. 9/10 wins is certainly doable, although I doubt that’ll actually happen.
Here’s what my picks look like (projected wins in parentheses)
New York Yankees 91½ - UNDER (93)
San Francisco Giants 88½ - UNDER (88)
Colorado Rockies 86½ - UNDER (77)
Milwaukee Brewers 85½ - OVER*** (87)
Tampa Bay Rays 84½ - OVER (85)
Oakland Athletics 83½ - OVER (77)
San Diego Padres 75½ - UNDER*** (69)
Washington Nationals 72½ - OVER (71)
Seattle Mariners 70½ - OVER (82)
Kansas City Royals 68½ - OVER*** (74)
So technically I’m ahead on 7 of the 10. But they are all still in play either way.
My updated list, 4 months in. Projected win total based on current record in parentheses.
My teams keep flipping around, and yet I seem to be 5-5 every time I check. :)
The Twins, at one point this season, were on pace for a 51 win season. Now they’re up to 75. They might make a race of this after all. :)
Winning
Colorado Rockies 86½ (76) - UNDER
Los Angeles Dodgers 84 (74) - UNDER
New York Yankees 91½ (100) - OVER **
Toronto Blue Jays 76½ (83) - OVER
Los Angeles Angels 83½ (88) - OVER **
Losing
San Francisco Giants 88½ (91) - UNDER
Texas Rangers 86½ (90) - UNDER
Atlanta Braves 87½ (92) - UNDER
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ (104) - UNDER
Minnesota Twins 86 (75) - OVER **
Philadelphia Phillies 96½ UNDER ***
San Francisco Giants 88½ UNDER
Atlanta Braves 87½ OVER ***
Colorado Rockies 86½ OVER
Texas Rangers 86½ OVER ***
St Louis Cardinals 83½ UNDER
Houston Astros 71½ OVER
New York Mets 77½ UNDER
Kansas City Royals 68½ UNDER
Los Angeles Angels 83½ OVER
Philly at 70 wins, UNDER not looking good.
San Francisco at 61, I think the UNDER is hosed for this as well.
Braves at 63 should be able to crack 88.
Colorado is hosed.
Texas will probably make it.
St. Louis could be close but I think the UNDER might be hosed.
Houston… ARGH.
NY Mets… also messed up. They’ll probably end up around .500.
KC… might be close but I think they’ll lose 100.
LA looking good too for the over.
So yeah, didn’t do too great of a job here… we’ll need to do an NFL one of these!
— Alan
Yankees pace is 100 wins - wrong
Giants pace is 90 wins - wrong
Rockies pace is 75 wins - right
Brewers pace is 89 wins - right
Rays pace is 84 wins - wrong
A’s pace is 72 wins - wrong
Padres pace is 69 wins - right
Nationals pace is 79 wins - right
Mariners pace is 70 wins - wrong
Royals pace is 68 wins - wrong
So not looking good right now, though several “wrong” teams are right on the margin and could go either way.
I think going .500 on these is pretty much par for the course. Going 7/10 is pretty good.
I’ll start an NFL version as we get closer to the start of the season. I suspect we’ll have a lot more participation for football.
They’re gambling figures essentially so going .500 is par, though technically (from a gambling perspective) you’re actually losing to the book. A 7 out of 10 would be exceptional.
— Alan
One Month To Go
Yankees pace 98 - bad
Giants pace 85 - good
Rockies pace 76 - good
Brewers pace 96 - good
Rays pace 89 - good
Athletics pace 72 - bad
Padres pace 71 - good
Nationals pace 76 - good
Mariners pace 70 - bad
Royals pace 65 - bad
Not too bad if things hold up, and still some improvement possible.
I’m headed for 6-4 or 5-5, and I think that’s about as good as I can get. My under picks for the Phils, Rangers and Braves look like sure losers at this point, as does my Over for the Twins. :|
I’ve started adding results to the OP now that teams are beginning to clinch results for the year. The first three: The Twins and Astros are officially Under, and the first team to go Over their projected win total are the Dbacks.
Looks like I’m going to get 3, maybe 4 right, but none of my starred picks. I’m pretty shocked the Phils are going to make the over, but the division turned out a bit less competitive than I’d thought.
So the team with the highest over/under was also one of the first teams to make the over. Go Phils. Also go me for being the only fanboy to pick them for the over. And by fanboy I mean ‘smart baseball analyst dude’.
I’ll admit, I did not expect the Phillies to cruise this smoothly. Every team suffers injuries and goes through cold spells, but the Phillies have just chugged through the regular season. Lee’s had an amazing year in particular.
But for me, the easiest pick on the board this year was the Yankees at 91½. They’ve won 92 or more in 9 out of the last 10 seasons and 13 out of the last 15. I have no idea how that line stayed that low, unless people were so pro-Red Sox that it drove the Yankees line down (which really should have been around 93 or 94).