Oscars voting body continues to be old, white and male. I do think that Robbie was a bit of a snub, Anette Benning is a bit of a weird choice. But I don’t think that the Barbie film was really an “acting” movie. Probably why they were ok with giving it supporting actor nods and not lead.
I think that the real snub is Gerwig for best director.
The DGA is even more old white and male. Justine Triet is a surprise (but not undeserved) and Jonathan Glazer is a huge surprise.
I can’t get over Greta Gerwig not getting a nomination for best director. I think this category could expand beyond five nominees like they did with Best Picture.
But this is pretty great:
Gerwig has plenty to console herself with besides record-breaking box-office returns. She is now the first filmmaker in history to have her first three solo features — “Lady Bird,” “Little Women” and “Barbie” — nominated for best picture.
Not female filmmaker… filmmaker period.
What does solo feature mean? Writer and director?
Oh I just realised it was the first three. There are many others who have three or more in total. Impressive!
I assume it means not written with/directed by Baumbach.
It means not including Nights and Weekends, which she is credited as co-directing with Joe Swanberg.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/entertainment/ryan-gosling-oscar-nomination-barbie/index.html
“I am extremely honored to be nominated by my colleagues alongside such remarkable artists in a year of so many great films. And I never thought l’d being saying this, but I’m also incredibly honored and proud that it’s for portraying a plastic doll named Ken.
But there is no Ken without Barbie, and there is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible for this history-making, globally-celebrated film.
No recognition would be possible for anyone on the film without their talent, grit and genius.
To say that I’m disappointed that they are not nominated in their respective categories would be an understatement.
Against all odds with nothing but a couple of soulless, scantily clad, and thankfully crotchless dolls, they made us laugh, they broke our hearts, they pushed the culture and they made history. Their work should be recognized along with the other very deserving nominees.
Having said that, I am so happy for America Ferrera and the other incredible artists who contributed their talents to making this such a groundbreaking film.”
- Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
There’s all kinds of things giving me agita and making it hard for me to sleep at night. Who did and didn’t get nominated for an award is not even close to being on the list.
Predictions time:
Note: This is subject to update as we get nearer to the awards, as often voting takes place for about 5 days usually a week or so before the event. So, very much media buzz and public sentiment count heavily towards votes. I also think that Barbie has a big shot of getting a lot of Buzz and attention, which could help it pull of some upsets. Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer are both kind of competing with each other with a lot of these categories, and I think Oppenheimer has a better shot.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Oppenheimer takes this. It is huge, epic, but also human and beautiful and devastating all at the same time. It has something for everyone. Been locked up since last summer. Zone of Interest has strong buzz right now, but it won’t be enough. Same for Poor Things.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper
Colman Domingo
Paul Giamatti
Cillian Murphy
Jeffrey Wright
Paul Giamatti is due. I also think that Jeffrey Wright as an outside shot at this one. I liked Cillian Murphy’s performance in Oppenheimer, but I could see the acting categories as where that film doesn’t sweep. I think this is a 2 person race between Paul and Cillian. I am going to go with my hopes and dreams, because I want to see Pigvomit win a statue.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening
Lily Gladstone
Sandra Huller
Carey Mulligan
Emma Stone
If Emma Stone didn’t have an oscar, she would be my pick. Lily Gladstone has a lot of buzz and Media attention around her. I have yet to see this film, but plan on watching it this week. - Having seen both of these now, Gladstone takes it, she won the SAG award, and it is a “historic first” possibility. I think she was incredible in KotFM, and she will win deservedly. If Emma Stone had not already won an Oscar, this would be close.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K Brown
Robert De Niro
Robert Downey Jr
Ryan Gosling
Mark Ruffalo
I have no clue where this one goes. I am going to say Mark Ruffalo, because that would be really fun. I think that RDJ is probably the strongest contender, RDJ has never won, so he very well might get his first win here. Swapping this back to RDJ, the buzz is out there.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt
Danielle Brooks
America Ferrera
Jodie Foster
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
This was an awesome performance that walked the line very well in a role that could have been overly sappy, but she nailed it.
Directing
Justine Triet
Martin Scorsese
Christopher Nolan
Yorgos Lanthimos
Jonathan Glazer
I think this is Yorgos Lanthimos’ year to get recognized. Nominated for the Favourite, he didn’t win, but with another strong film full of hollywood actors, I think the buzz will be around him. Updating this in March 2024, there is strong Zone of Interest buzz, and I see Jonathan Glazer having a real shot at this, but I also think that Nolan will win. He won the DGA award.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Screenplay is always the award that the guy (or gal) who didn’t win or get nominated for Best Director wins. I see Gerwig getting a chance to hold an award on stage as best director votes by proxy.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Ditto for Celine Song, for a film that was not recognized for any other awards, this is the chance for the voters to show their love.
International Feature Film
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Zone of interest has this locked up, it won’t win Best Picture, but it will win this, deservedly.
Animated Feature Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Miyazaki will get awarded for a middling (for him) effort. Unfortunate when the rest of the group (not you Elemental) is stacked.
Documentary Feature Film
Bobi Wine: The People’ President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Watch this film, it is just devastating. Unforgettable.
Live Action Short Film
The Actor
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Big name in a small pool.
Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
the Barber of Little Rock
The Island In Between
Nai Naia Wai Wo
Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over!
Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I think that the buzz has shifted to Oppenheimer on this one, it is going to clean up a lot of the big awards.
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I have no clue here, Oppenheimer, KotFM, Poor Things and Barbie are all strong contenders, with 2 being very excellent period drama work and two bringing a fantasy world to life. I am going to go with Barbie, as I think people will definitely reward the real-life sized “Barbie Dream House” with an award.
Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Yeah, this has the “most costume” design out of all of the films, and is fantastic at it, so I see the Academy awarding Poor Things for the excellent costume design.
Music (Original Score)
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I think Oppenheimer takes this one, I read some articles talking about this score recently, leading me to believe there has been a push in the oscar campaign here.
Music (Original Song)
The Fire Inside
I’m Just Ken
It Never Went Away
Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)
What Was I Made For?
This is impossible to predict, I think that “What Was I Made For” might win, but the Barbie buzz has died down, and I think the Academy voters will want to throw some votes at Killers of the Flower Moon in categories.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Going with most makeup and hair for this one.
Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Having seen this film, and the buzz around it, I think this picks up a win over Oppenheimer, partially because voters will want to give it some love, but also because the Sound design is fucking fantastic, seriously, read about how they did it, it is incredible.
Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Godzilla Minus One is the only movie in this list people are talking about, I think it overcomes the headwinds of being a foreign film to win this.
Edit 04 March 2024 - Voting has likely begun, and the media cycle hype and “for your consideration” campaigns have been run. Tweaking my final list.
I think Godzilla Minus One wins VFX. Did you hear the reaction in the room when it was announced? The Creator was impressive visually, but everyone agrees that the film sucked. Whereas Minus One is universally beloved. And the fact that they did it on the budget they did it with probably resonates with a lot of people in the industry.
A foreign language film has never won a VFX Oscar.
There may be buzz now, but the weight of the industry voting bloc likes to vote for themselves. Not saying it is impossible, but it certainly is a long shot, though it is the first time a foreign language film has been nominated for a VFX oscar, so that IS something.
I feel like the Academy is going to go (nearly) all-in on Oppenheimer, especially given how relatively little attention Nolan has received from them in the past.
While I think the smart money is probably on Oppenheimer, I’m going to plant a wild flag here and say that I’m feeling vibes–multiple years of e.g. CODA/Green Book vibes–and the vibes say: Best Picture - The Holdovers.
A movie about a boarding school in the early 70’s? That is EXACTLY in the wheelhouse of the majority of the Academy voting bloc.
If Barbie wins Best Picture, then both Gerwig and Robbie are winners, as the executive producer and producer.
I’m kind of coming around to the “Gerwig and Robbie weren’t snubbed” point of view: Now that they have ten Best Picture nominees, at least half aren’t going to be nominated for Best Director. And Margot Robbie isn’t competing with Ryan Gosling for a nomination, because they’re entirely different categories. Her lack of a nomination just means that voters thought other female performances that year were better.
Yeah, Robbie and Gerwig both got nominated for Best Picture too.
I do think that it was an odd snub for Director though.
Nah. It’s BS. Gerwig should’ve gotten a nom for Best Director.
It feels like every year there’s nominees that aren’t even out in the U.S. yet.
Like Robot Dreams. I wish that was a requirement, you actually had to release your movie in the U.S. already to be eligible, otherwise, they can be eligible for Oscars 2025 instead after their movie comes out in the U.S. in 2024.
I have no idea how theatrical releases are secured, but wouldn’t that make it very difficult for non-US films to get nominated when they are don’t make it into a given year? It would put a lot of power into the hands of whoever decides if a film is shown in the US. If they can be shown in their home country, they are eligible.
At first glance, and not knowing how it works, it feels it could be abused to shut out films from competition.
Should I watch Barbie before watching that skit? (Judging from the still image)