Same. Warren’s my second choice so I went with her, but I imagine I’ll end up having to throw my support behind Biden.
I also switched to Warren, even though I think Biden has a better shot.
As I’ve said since the very beginning though, I really don’t want to elect another super old dude.
So Warren gets more than half of the 100 or so votes cast here, and likewise among Democrats I know IRL. Her campaign is tanking, so it’s clear that both people here and people I know in the flesh are unrepresentative of Democratic voters. But also suggests she does have a base of support. So who are the Warren voters? And why are we such a small slice of the electorate?
College-educated whites, hence the sizable base of support here. Unfortunately, you can’t win the nomination on that alone.
Well, I’ve just spent a bunch of time looking for info about Democratic party demographics. Surprisingly hard to find. I’m curious how much of the party is white college educated people. I’d guess more than half. If that’s Warren’s main base of voters, I’m still surprised she’s tanking.
Well first off, as I understand it, 40% of the party isn’t white. A significant portion of the rest isn’t college-educated, so I don’t think it’s anywhere close to half.
You might be right. Best I could do was this Pew report that shows that about half of the total electorate is white college educateds, and that that group broke pretty heavily for Clinton in 2016.
According to this, in 2018, 59% of Democratic voters did not have a college degree.
I don’t think it’s claiming that. Those are unweighted numbers. If you click to the methodology, there’s a table showing demographics for the electorate as a whole from a number of sources:
So they seem to be about 30% of the voters.
and that that group broke pretty heavily for Clinton in 2016.
Not that heavily, 53-41.
Ah, ok. Thanks for posting that link!
Topline numbers on that page show 55-38. Either way a 10-15 point margin. If wce’s were 30% of the total electorate and Clinton voters were about half of the electorate, and wce’s broke for Clinton by 10-15 points, I’d expect that wce’s make up more than 30% of Democrats. Totally possible my reasoning is flawed though.
Interesting final polling results in the original post. Warren nearly beat the doubled combined vote of Bernie and Biden. And no one voted for Trump. I get that QT3 doesn’t reflect the entirety of Super Tuesday voters, but… huh.
Also, speaking for myself, if QT3 were a state with delegate allocations, I’d have voted for Warren there. As it is I voted for Biden because I think people on ST should vote strategically, but if Warren were viable in the real world like she is here… well that’d be a different matter.
5 dogs seems odd.
Sure, let’s work with that. (I used another source, but the exact number does not matter a ton. But should definitely have kept it consistent.)
You’re correct, but it’s not that much more. Let’s continue with the fiction that Democratic voters map exactly to Clinton 2016 voters, just for simplicity :)
There were 137M total votes cast in 2016. 30% of that → 41M by wce. 55% of that → 22.5M wce for Clinton. Total Clinton popular vote was 66M, 22.5M/66M =~ 34%. So it’s a good chunk of the Democratic coalition, but nowhere near enough by itself. And while it’s the demographic where Warren does best, she’s not winning it by the kinds of margins that Biden and Bernie have with their respective bases.
Lol :) It’s probably a decent first approximation to within 5-10%.
Yeah, I suspect this is actually the major cause here.
Comfortable professionals, in my experience, who are not a very big part of the population.
Sigh.
/raises hand
What’s a comfortable professional? Is that someone working from home in their PJs?
How about underemployed professionals with big debts and kids?
Because, my loans aren’t doing me any favors, despite my comfortable job.
Then again, Warren was my very close second pick, so maybe that’s why I am a Pete supporter.
Generally urban white collar folks with above average incomes. Educated people who aren’t really struggling. Especially though not at all limited to media types and academics.