Stupor Tuesday (TX/OH/RI/VT)

Politics and religion
41

So, I just got back from the local caucuses here in Round Rock (an Austin suburb).

Last primary there were 15 people from our precinct to turn out. The state party warned of an expected 150%-200% additional turnout.

There were easily over 300 people tonight.

The local party organization was literally nonexistent - there was one (ONE) Democratic Party guy there who I don’t even think was an elected official but just a local lawyer, and who kept saying that he had never seen so many people voting Democrat in a single room (we were taking up an entire church). So the first order of business was literally to elect enough party officials to make the caucus legal - like, a precinct party chairperson (previous to tonight the position didn’t exist). Then we had to sign up and prove that we had voted in the primary already.

The Obama campaign in its instructions on texas.barackobama.com, instructed people that once you signed up with your preference, you could leave. Clearly they were basing this on state caucuses that had, well, any experience at all. Most of us looked at each other and said “Yeah, we probably better hang around”.

During this process after we signed off, we went to pew sections cordoned off in Obama sections and Clinton sections for 2 precincts (they were both meeting in the same church and both in equal states of organizational disrepair). The Obama sections immediately started cheering every time someone came and “joined the family”. One Clinton supporter came over and asked, simply, “Can you give one good reason why you’re supporting Barack Obama?” I responded with a spoken version of the post I’ve probably made many times here, about politics of the past 16 years being divisive instead of inclusive, and Obama’s core promise to change that and work together for all Americans. Another man, an old black man wearing a Vietnam Veterans ball cap, stood up and said simply that in his lifetime he never thought that he would see white people supporting a black man for President, and there was no way anyone could convince him to support anything else.

As we waited for the interminable signin process, the debates continued between the Clinton supporters and the Obama faction, fairly good-natured for the most part and actually made me feel really good about what this election is doing for just inspiring ordinary folks to get involved. The ethnic breakdown of our precinct, in my rough guesstimate was about 50% white, 25% black, and 25% Latino - most of the Latinos went for Clinton, all but one of the blacks for Obama, and the whites seemed about 60/40 for Obama. Finally the votes were tallied, and our precinct sent 2 delegates for Ms. Clinton and 5 for Mr. Obama (to loud raucous cheers). We then had to choose said delegates; the 8 or so candidates for the 5 slots stood up and said a few words, then we voted for each ones (having to vote 5 times total). It was about as complex as it sounds. The new precinct chairwoman and the Vietnam Veteran were both voted in as Obama delegates.

Finally, it was asked if we had any resolutions to propose to the state convention. One guy promptly stood up and said that we should make it so that instead of the candidate choosing a vice-president, they had to select the person who came in second. Despite the head shaking “is that even legal?” reaction from myself and most others, we voted… and the motion passed. Watch out, Constitution! OK, we’re finally done, 2 and half hours later. NOPE! As we were heading out the door someone else stood up and read a pre-prepared statement, in legalese, that amounted to a motion to impeach the Republican Governor of Texas. That passed too.

Democracy: it’s a messy business.

42

It’s pretty much one of the biggest political events in Texas practically as far back as I can remember, which has been over 25 years now. Turnout, which is frankly pathetic at times (as Lum pointed out for Round Rock), is going to be huge, and even the early voting has had long lines everywhere I’ve seen.

I’ve got to say… it’s pretty cool, messyness and all.

— Alan

43

CNN just called OH for Clinton and she has a small lead in Texas. This may not be a good night for Obama. If he only carries VT, no way will Clinton be knocked out.

44

There definately won’t be a knockout. It looks like Hillary will narrow the gap a bit, but Texas will probably be so close that neither will gain much from it.

45

57% female, 43% male voters so far in Texas. That’s kind of interesting, though I really have no knowledge of previous gender demographics here.

— Alan

46

CNN calls Texas primary for Hillary. Caucus is “too close to call.”

47

Yeah, these results aren’t good for Obama. I can’t think of a worse outcome for the Dems, since it all but guarantees this is going all the way to the convention.

Meanwhile McCain has officially clinched.

48

The only worse outcome I can think of is no one voting because of apathy. This is pretty bad, though. The speeches the Dems made kind of made the situation a little worse.

49

Looks like Obama’s started off with a pretty good lead in the caucuses.

Remember, though; Hillary will probably still lose the delegates based on popular vote as well. She actually needed to win by about 55% v. 45% to do that, because of the gerrymandered districts. So it looks like she’s won Texas for now, but let’s see what she’s won in the morning.

50

In the end she’s narrowed Obama’s lead, so she can claim victory. Also, she can also claim two more big states in her favor, while Obama’s victories are almost all based on blowouts in smaller states.

I’m just saying that things got murkier tonight rather than clearer. The convention isn’t until the end of August - does anyone really want five more months of arguing over who the Democrat’s nominee is?

51

Oh, I can think of quite a few people who’d want that… and they all have one thing in common.

52

Obviously, and that’s the problem.

Let’s see: a really close race, disputes about certain states and whether their vote was fair or should count, the threat of lawsuits. Remind you of anything?

53

But Clinton had to have a spectacular night, and she didn’t. The results for Obama, while disappointing for his supporters, are not substantially outside of expectations. He still has the lead with delegates and the superdelegate momentum, and the popular vote (not counting FL and MI).

54

Hey, I’m all for Obama but that’s not how this is going to be spun by Hillary or the newsmedia. We are now going to see talk that Obama’s momentum has been stopped, that he can’t win big states, etc.

We all know it’s mathematically pretty much impossible for Hillary to overcome Obama’s lead, but she’s no longer playing to win on those terms anyway.

55

Hillary isn’t going to pick up enough delegates to matter. What does matter, I guess, is how this changes the campaign narrative and media coverage.

Basically, does the press go after Obama? Does Hillary keep wacking him (patty-cake style) on national security? Does one of them break out some serious sleaze? What the hell is momentum, anyway?

I wish I could skip to the part where QT3 unites and bashes McCain in harmony. :(

56

Momentum in this case is delegates and superdelegates earned per week. If that rumor is true about 50 Clinton supers switching to Obama, then she’ll be painted into a pretty small corner.

57

Oh, on a side note, I’m starting to wonder how “bad” it is if this thing goes until June. Say it was decided a month ago - would Texas have had this crazy turnout with this many people involved? There’s some interesting stuff there about generating interest and party identification.

God knows it’ll drive me crazy, but oddly I think it has helped the expected Democratic margin in the fall so far.

58

June? This is going until the convention, which is at the end of August.

Look, you can generate all the interest you want at this point, but in the end that has nothing to do with the fall. There was a ton of interest in Kerry in the spring of 2004.

All recent history says that when the nomination isn’t decided early, the other side wins. That may be a quirk of history, but it may not be.

Hillary can’t win the regular delegate count. So what does she or the party gain by dragging this out? As pointed out above, it just increases the likliehood that it reveals negatives for both.

59

It’s certainly gotten a lot more people across the country to participate in the process, both physically and psychologically. Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of people aren’t looking past physical appearance. I’m reminded of that old Shaw quote:

Democracy is a device that insures we shall be governed no better than we deserve.

60

Eh. I actually am a lot less cynical about the American electorate after tonight. The caucus goers I spoke to, Clinton and Obama supporters both, were all fairly engaged and for the most part had well-thought out reasons for voting the way they did. Bear in mind this is also prime “Clinton country” for mining supporters - fairly working-class (our neighborhood is a residential district of a town populated in the main by people who don’t want to pay a 50-100k surcharge on housing prices for buying in Austin proper), pretty racially diverse with a strong Latino presence, and seemingly of varying educational backgrounds. I think that television encourages us to underestimate the average voter.