Tariff like it's 1897


#461

I guess this is kinda sorta related (I’m not going to pretend I know anything about the world of finance and investment) but apparently this is (or can be?) a harbinger of a pending recession (or at least the expectation of one.)

The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge


#462

It could be - w/o overly reading into it it definitely does mean that institutional investors are not optimistic about continued economic growth 5 years out…


#463

Yeah, the yield curve has been in the news for a year or so now. Nice to see all that wasn’t without reason! There’s a lot of other leading indicators that need to turn before a downturn is imminent, though. My guess is we have another year, maybe 18 months, barring decisive government action to prop up the economy. (Hah, our Congress taking decisive action! And Trump not making things worse! I slay myself.)


#464

Not to fret, we’ve positioned ourselves well and set up reserves to weather the upcoming economic downturn. Right guys?


#465

“Well, it’s true my revenue hasn’t gone up, and my soybeans are kinda rotting in the fields, but I paid $500 less taxes, and with a proven businessman like Trump doing the negotiating with the Chinese, it’s gonna pick up sooner or later. Anyhow I sure do hate them gay commie Democrats that want to let the rapists into the country. Not like I’d ever vote for one of them. Lock her up!”


#466

It is true the flattening yield curve has been in the news for at least a year. But there is a psychological effect to the actual inversion (which only happened intraday). The WSJ is reporting yields on both the 2 and 5 as being 2.823%.

FWIW, is after two solid years of doing very little with my investments, other than complaining about how stock were overvalued. Last week I started actively selling stocks, and even bought some puts on the S&P 500. I expected that Trump and Xi wouldn’t reach any agreement (I was wrong) and so stocks went up instead of down.

I was particularly concerned because a guy that back in 2007, warned folks that real estate market was going to crash and take banks stocks with it. Turn very bearish last month. I listened to him back in 2007, but didn’t act, so this time I am.

But the bigger picture is interest rates. I can get over 3% with a 2 year CD, even the best president would have trouble keeping the US out of recession in the next 2 years, so with this idiot…


#467

Shockingly the Chinese take on the Xi-Trump ideal s different than Trumps.

It is such a sad state of affairs that I automatically believe our adversaries spin on things over the President’s.


#468

There’s always the possibility(*) that they are both lying.

(*: near-certainty)


#469

I thought pretty hard about that, too. What eventually made me decide to hold for now is that leading indicators (like what you see from The Conference Board) aren’t yet taking a dive. Of course, nothing is certain in this business, and those kind of indicators aren’t likely to catch the exact top of the market. But it’s a data point in favor of holding on a bit longer.


#470

Looks like my sense of the China “deal” was right, and also that Trump basically made up the auto tariffs thing entirely.


#471

This is like North Korea all over again.


#472

So you’re saing we won, right? ;)


#473

LOL we (no wait trump) lost that one big time.


#474

The market agrees - right now the Dow is down 700. (So much winning, etc.)


#475

Yeah, I can’t believe anyone was dumb enough to buy back in yesterday, based on a fucking tweet from Trump where he said he fixed everything.


#476

That’s a direct reaction to the news that the Democrats tried to steal that House seat in North Carolina. Investors are feeling the upcoming Democrocalypse in droves!


#477

Trump is such a fucking idiot.


#478

#479

For once I got the timing right.


#480

Buckle up. DJIA is set to open 300 points down.