OK, part 3! You’re still here. Maybe.
So let’s go state by state, and I’ll at least offer up where I think we stand today.
Keep in mind: these are the musings of a guy who thought this could be Rand Paul versus Joe Biden. Just sayin’.
Also, I’m not going to go alphabetically. I think in terms of election maps. I’m starting in the northeast, and we’ll sweep down the coast, turn inland, and hit the west coast.
Maine: Looks comfortable for Clinton to pick up 3 EV in this state that splits its electoral votes. The vote from Maine’s CD-2 is going to be close, but I’d say it slightly leans Clinton’s way.
New Hampshire looks fairly close, but maybe not as close as it looked on Friday. I think this will be a tight race, but Clinton takes it by 3-5 points, based completely on Clinton ground game.
Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey: All very safely Clinton states.
Pennsylvania: Both campaigns have spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania, which is partly that PA is within single digits, but also because of the lack of Early Voting. All of PA’s vote comes today. I think Pennsylvania remains the football that Republican Charlie Brown constantly has snatched away. Philly and its suburbs and exurbs will deliver the state to Clinton by 4-7 points. I think.
Delaware, Maryland, and DC: all comfortably Clinton.
West Virginia: Like a Pink Floyd song, they are Comfortably Trump (I promise not to do that anymore.)
Virginia: OK, there was some polling noise last week in Virginia, but that seems to have subsided. Virginia should go for Clinton by 4-8 points. But that’s not what I want to talk about. If you’ve read this far, I’m going to give you a nugget that might actually be me making a smart observation. (Reserve the right to shrug and say “Or not” later tonight.) Virginia doesn’t have early voting like other states…but it has a provision where if you can show that your job or some other valid reasons makes it a hardship to vote on election day, they’re really lenient about allowing you to early vote. (It’s much more relaxed than Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire’s requirements.)
Dave Wasserman reported that 10,800 people in Fairfax County voted absentee on those relaxed provisions on November 5th, the last day of that. That’s nice. It was a record. It’s a Democratic stronghold. But now get this: 6,676 people voted absentee in Prince William County. Significance? In 2000, Prince William County was about 250,000 people, and 75% white. In 2016, it is 450,000, and 47% white, and is 22% Hispanic. If you want a sign of nationwide Hispanic vote surge, Prince William County Virginia is the best exemplar of that, maybe as much as anything in Florida or Nevada. Mark that down if that surge happens today, and remember where you read it first.
OK, let’s move down the coast.
North Carolina: You tell me. This is, to use a Dan Ratherism, tighter than a tick. I have literally no idea how this shakes out. The difference in NC could be 25,000 votes or fewer. If Clinton wins, it’ll be her GOTV that does it. If Trump wins, it’ll be his groundgame (which is very present in this state).
South Carolina: Solidly Trump
Georgia: If Pennsylvania is the Republican football being held by Lucy, Georgia is the same for Democrats. It just seems like we’re still a cycle away. Just like we said in 2012. And 2008. This should go for Trump, maybe by 2-3 points.
Florida: Like North Carolina, this is also incredibly close, and also a state where both campaigns have ground game. I think Clinton ends up winning it, but I would hardly be surprised if Trump won too. Very close, maybe a 1 point win either way.
Let’s go inland:
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana: All solidly Trump.
Ohio: Yeugh. Saturday, I’d have said this was all Trump. But Early voting in Franklin and Cuyahoga caught up to 2012 levels on Sunday. This is also a state where I think Clinton has a far superior ground game to Trump. I think that it inches it closer. In the end, I think Trump takes it here…but if you want my upset special for Team Hillary, this would be it.
Michigan: This is the state where the primary wounds dealt to Clinton have stuck. It’ll be very close here, but she’s probably got a better ground game, and that may be enough to win it. Michigan is going to be painful to watch, though. All their voting is today, and the areas where Clinton will do best will report results late. We may not have a call in Michigan until 11 pm. I think that call will end up being Clinton by 3-5.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois: all should be solidly Clinton.
Iowa: A great quote I saw about Iowa is that it is Minnesota without the Twin Cities and Duluth, or Wisconsin without Madison/Milwaukee. It should go Trump, but not by the 7 points in the Selzer poll. Probably more like 2-4.
Missouri: Comfortably Trump. No longer a bellwether or swing state.
Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho: All easily Trump, by 20. I think Trump also barely carries the allocated elector from Nebraska’s CD 2 (Omaha).
Texas: Here’s a fun one. Trump will win it, but if the margins are fewer than 8 points, that ought to give Reince sleepless nights for months.
New Mexico: Will be Clinton, probably by 5-7.
Colorado: Man. So many people are confident in CO being Clinton, but its the one state besides Michigan that worries me. I think she’s got it, but it may be a 4-6 point win that takes a while on the call.
Arizona: I think this will end up Trump, but if you wanted to make a case that it could be well past 1 am on the east coast before this is called, I wouldn’t doubt you. If we’re seeing a Hispanic poll surge elsewhere in the country, this could be within a point either way.
Nevada: I’ll defer to Jon Ralston and say that Clinton probably has this, by 4-6 points.
California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii: All comfortably Clinton, but she loses one elector in Washington State, unless they reconvene a convention and show that yahoo to the door. Either way, it shouldn’t matter.
Alaska: Should go Trump, but will be the first election in a while where the Democrat was within single digits.