The 2018 Midterms Game Day Thread of Angst, Worry, (and maybe some hope?)


I keep telling myself that the GOP folks usually vote, but there’s a vast swath of Dems and independents who don’t, so enthusiasm and new voters are going to favor the Dems by a decent margin.

Again, that’s just what I’m telling myself - could be entirely wrong.


I don’t think you’re wrong to feel that way. Midterm turnout is typically WAY older and whiter than turnout on presidential years. This year we should see an uptick in younger, non-white voters. Maybe not Presidential midterm level, but much better than in 2014 or 2010.




The Oracle of Nevada speaks.


So while canvassing in my very red town for Jess King, we touched with a couple of former Republicans. Some said they just couldnt vote Republican anymore.

I know it’s a tiny skewed sample, so not something to go by, but hey, it’s bit of positivity.

On the other hand, we had some woman tell us to leave because we were Democrats, and threaten to call the police if we didn’t (the woman wasn’t on our list, but I think her son was). Of course we left.


Liking the taste of these apples:



For anyone who isn’t actually working on campaigns, polls aren’t a thing which really matter or you should care about. They have zero impact on any of us.

For some reason, they’ve taken on some kind of mystique like sports scores or something. It’s like we’re watching a scoreboard in some game. But the thing is, literally none of it matters at all. All that matters is what happens on election day.

For folks deciding how to spend money on campaigns, it can be great information. But for normal voters, I feel like it’s causing people to dedicate way more time and attention to something that doesn’t matter.

If you want folks to win an election, then go support them and vote. How they are polling shouldn’t play a role in you deciding what to do.

Also, I say all this while I’m also caught up in it and can’t help but be interested… but part of me is conscious of the fact that it seems detrimental to our democratic processes, by feeding the tribalism via turning every day into a political competition. It drags out the election into an every-day affair.


Why is anyone surprised that the media want to portray every election like a horserace that’s going to have a too-close-to-call finish? They want people to be glued to their screens for the results, so they will highlight anything that helps.


Yup, proving the bastards haven’t learned a thing.


I disagree, they’ve learned a lot about how to make money.


I agree here, unless you’re intending to go phone bank or do other remote volunteering for someone. Determining where your efforts can have the most impact can be helpful.

That said, I pledged to myself this morning that I won’t check 538 and will ignore political news for the next two days… my willpower is weak though.


Like I said, knowing the path is easier than walking the path. I can’t help but be interested, because things are so important for this election. But at the same time, it’s just a drain emotionally, while not providing useful and actionable information.

Although I guess you’re right that it could potentially impact you for the remote volunteering you suggest.


How about idle curiosity? I always want to k ow what people are doing and thinking.


I think that is a little harsh. I for one like studying the nature of social groups, and watching polls ebb and flow based on demographics or news events or cultural phenomena is really interesting stuff.


Fully agreed. I think the modern rational human understands that polling is basically social sampling, subject to design errors, systemic errors, and problems with herding…but it’s still fascinating to observe, especially when a pollster keeps a consistent methodology and polls across time to give a trendline.



Have some new House adjustments:


New chart from Cook: