The North Korea Thread

They’re not in violation of international law on this issue, since they’ve withdrawn from almost every treaty that might apply rather than be subject to it. Their counterfeiting and drug smuggling operations are, but that’s a seperate topic.

Now, if the UN issues a binding resolution on North Korea to disarm their nuclear weapons and re-submit themselves to the provisions of the NPT, their options are to do so, or to tell the UN to go jump in a lake. In the case of the latter, they would then be subject to sanctions by other UN states. How much so and how much teeth those sanctions would have depends on how irked their patrons are. It’s not like we’re going to institute a blockade along the Chinese-NK border without China’s consent.

I think when Daniel says “a blatant violation of international law”, he means “doing something the US doesn’t like”.

Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t bomb 'em, though. I mean, they are all Evil and stuff.

P.S. I think if you and your loved ones don’t live in Seoul (aka “the future site of ground zero”) you don’t get to vote on initiating military action against NK.

As has been detailed in many places including this thread, North Korea operated a parallel nuclear program well before Bush took office. While Bush didn’t bow to North Korea’s wishes and accord them the honor of direct negotiations (bypassing everyone else in the region who has a stake in the matter by actually living there), the absolute best that could have likely been gotten from those negotiations is yet another treaty that would look good on paper and accomplish nothing.

And to do so we would help to subsidize a regime that is substantially more repugnant than any other that might be “bribed as a cornerstone of foreign policy”, prolonging the agony of its people and the threat it poses to its neighbors.

Actually, yes, they are. Which doesn’t mean we should bomb them.

Obviously my little joke was at the expense of complexity.

However, I keep thinking that but for the “axis of evil” and our invasion of Iraq, not to mention this administrations grade-school level diplomatic prowess, neither Iran, nor NK would have felt it necessary to create a nuclear deterrent.

Maybe NK would have developed nukes, and maybe not. We’ll never know.

You mean the Korean regime knew, in 1994, when they began developing nuclear weapons, that some day we would elect George Bush’s kid and start rampaging around the planet? Wow. I guess Kim Jong Il really is the Lodestone of the North Star or whatever his propaganda is labelling him today.

An interesting side note:

The KCNA is now two days late in reposting their news releases (it’s currently Tuesday morning in Korea/Japan).

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Either they’re waiting to make ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN they post the right thing, or more likely they don’t really care if the Americans can read their propaganda any more.

I do think at this point worrying over who’s fault it is is pointless. History will take care of that.

In the meantime - what do we do? Are there any alternatives that don’t involve either a) NK with a nuclear arsenal or b) full scale war on the peninsula?

There was reasonable multilateral progress towards an agreement with North Korea that would have allowed them to give up their nuclear program in return for desperately needed aid, while still allowing them to save face. Clinton was actually quite good at this sort of thing. It looked like there was a surprising chance that it might work, that the North Koreans wanted it to work, if only they could retain some dignity.

Bush Jr. completely pissed on this process, stopped all negotiations, and did nothing but insult the North Koreans, who more than anyone in the world can’t stand to be insulted. You can’t get far diplomatically when you brazenly label your opponent as Evil. I think North Korea has done the only rational thing it can, given their position. With nuclear weapons at least people will take them seriously – which they desperately want.

Like I said earlier, there’s c) overwhelming nuclear first strike. I prefer a) and I expect that is what we are going to see.

Link

Amusing to say the least, 1/2 a kiloton, just 19 and a half short!

Because changing course and actually using time tested methods of dealing with these kinds of issues is impossible.

Accountability, effectiveness, flexibility, these are all hallmarks of great leaders and good governments. Right now we have none of these things.

Hell, maybe they just stuck 500 tons of TNT in a cave and blew it up…

That’s really a bifurcation of the issue. There are a wide variety of outcomes that occupy the grey area between the two outcomes you suggest.

So Bush was right to demand multilateral negotiations. Ah.

The Big Lie worked pretty well for Bush wrt Iraq, so let’s see if we can turn it against him? There was only progress in the sense that North Korea got a bunch of stuff for free.

I honestly can’t imagine a way to get NK to give up it’s nukes that doesn’t involve war.

I mean we could just try outright bribery - guarantee their safety, shut up with the regime change stuff, buy their nukes. Odds of that happening under this administration are slightly below 0%.

P.S. I think if you and your loved ones don’t live in Seoul (aka “the future site of ground zero”) you don’t get to vote on initiating military action against NK.

If only it was that simple. Alas, North Korea is already on the road toward multiple-stage intercontinental missile delivery of nuclear payloads. Maybe we should wait until they successfully test that capability before worrying about the North Korean bomb. Small comfort to Tokyo, which is well within range of NK’s crudest missile systems already. Do the Japanese get a vote on military action?

Or forget missiles, and consider how relatively simple it would be for Kim to deliver a nuclear strike against a U.S. port via oceangoing vessel. Do residents of West Coast port cities get a vote on military action? Do we get a vote the day Kim blackmails us by saying “Give me X or else I’ll hand over the red keys to the anti-American terrorist group of my choice”?

The problem with nuclear proliferation in the globalizing world – as we’ve seen with the iceberg-tip of A.Q. Khan – is that the days of red hotline-phones are over. We face a viral and uncontrollable spread of this capability, unless we act soon to make proliferation an international casus belli.

There was reasonable multilateral progress towards an agreement with North Korea that would have allowed them to give up their nuclear program in return for desperately needed aid, while still allowing them to save face. Clinton was actually quite good at this sort of thing. It looked like there was a surprising chance that it might work, that the North Koreans wanted it to work, if only they could retain some dignity.

Bush Jr. completely pissed on this process…

You have no idea what you are talking about. The Clinton administration’s record on North Korea is one of abject failure. Read some of the books by Clinton’s NK negotiators. They basically say “Yeah it was all totally fucked, but there was nothing else we could do.” Read Robert Gallucci’s book – Galluci was Clinton’s chief NK negotiator throughout the Framework process. Then tell me how much progress was made. Better yet, call him up at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown and ask to interview him. He’s not shy about saying we gained nothing from the negotiation process, except perhaps delaying this crisis by 5-6 years. I guess that’s a victory of sorts.

In the meantime - what do we do? Are there any alternatives that don’t involve either a) NK with a nuclear arsenal or b) full scale war on the peninsula?

Not to be a retarded fuckwit about it, but there’s plenty that can be done but won’t be done due to international failures of diplomacy. Let’s start with an economic embargo. Unfortunately the Chinese will nix it, fearful of refugee flows. So we’re back at square one – where it’s the U.S.'s fault that we can’t take actions short of force.

I mean we could just try outright bribery - guarantee their safety, shut up with the regime change stuff, buy their nukes. Odds of that happening under this administration are slightly below 0%.

Oh my god. We have been pursuing a strategy of “outright bribery” for 12 years now. Here we are. You are a fool.

I kinda like the “nuke buy back” idea. No one relishes the idea of appeasing Kim and his thugs. No one likes subsidizing one of the worst regimes on the planet. But really, a collapsed NK is bad news, and a belligerent NK is bad news, too. Military options appear to me at least to be incompatible with desired outcomes in the short, medium, and long term right now. So to avoid really bad things we may have to work with slightly less bad things.

Someone needs to get the Chinese to bribe Kim and Co. out of Pyongyang into retirement somewhere then manage the collapse of thier regime into a puppet state of Beijing, with growing economic ties to Seoul or something. It wouldn’t be a truly free and unified Korea but it’d be a damn sight better than what they have now.

Daniel you’re really not doing yourself any favors in convincing me you’re anything but a myopic idiot.

If by “We’ve tried bribery” you’re talking about the Agreed Framework - I suggest you actually do a bit of reading. The US was reneging on the conditions of the Agreed Framework before it was even known that NK was pursuing Uranium enrichment. Pretty much we agreed to bribe them and then never actually bribed them.

So far you’ve waved your hands and blown a lot of smoke up our collective asses, but you have yet to offer anything of substance.

You creep me out, little buddy. If world leaders in general believed as you do, every decade would have its world war.