Interesting article, I for one would like to believe.
—the average console gamer, according to Powers Associates, spends more time playing PC games than console games.
lolwut?
Console gaming is domed!
Do we have a domedness chart for console gaming?
I think he makes a few excellent points. He also gives an answer to a question I had before: why hasn’t WoW been ported to a console.
Still, new CPUs with integrated GPU in 2009 are not going to fix the problem of the PC market that 80% of the base does not have good enough graphic capabilities and that driver management is still a nightmare.
I have a better answer: because WoW needs a keyboard to play. A dpad is not a substitute for macros and 30+ keystroke commands.
How about with the Jaguar controller?
See, you know it’s true, because Alex has never given a spin on reality that happens to promote the concept behind his own company’s products.
Now excuse me, I have to get back to the dancing girl on my Windows desktop.
His “death of consoles” prediction seems to rely on two presumptions: that the next generation of consoles will shift primarily if not exclusively to DLC, which cuts regular retailers out of the profit loop, who will then stop selling consoles because there’s no profit incentive for them to do so; and that game developers will shift towards community-based online PC games, because you can’t steal a community.
His first presumption has two flaws: one, by focusing heavily on DLC, any prospective console excludes the people who wish to stick with old-fashioned physical media, which shrinks your prospective market; and two, that the console manufacturer in question doesn’t realize they still need Wal-mart et al to sell their consoles for them and thus need to provide profit motivation - namely games. It seems he’s basically claiming that the next generation of consoles will put all their eggs in the DLC basket, which won’t be sufficient to sustain their markets without the support of Walmart et al, and that he’s the only one clever enough to realize that’s a mistake.
His second presumption would exclude all those gamers (myself included) that still prefer solo to online gaming. I certainly like to believe there are still enough of us (paying) solo gamers that developers won’t abandon us entirely.
That article wasn’t nearly as stupid as I thought it would be. Excellent points.
My only beef: Is it really true that Sony/Microsoft whoever are never going to be able to keep up with Nvidia and ATI? If Intel can - to quote Alex St. John himself - potentially “revolutionize” PC graphics by changing the way the CPU/GPU interact with each other, why can’t the console vendors? After all , they’re in a much better position to make fundamental changes - they own the platform and they control exactly how users can buy it and how developers can utilize its resources- unlike the PC.
I bring this point up because it looks like we might be on the verge of another change in the way graphics are done in games - the end of pure rasterization. http://www.pcper.com/article.php?aid=532&type=expert&pid=1 ATI and Nvidia know everything there is to know about putting polygons on a screen, but what happens when it becomes more about voxels, or physics, or something else? Alex St. John says that the success of the Wii proves that graphics are just a commodity - fine, but I don’t think it will always be true that the Western graphics cards will always and forever be able to provide the best commodity.
For the record, the PS3 supports USB mouse and keyboard.
Which is why I found the article surprisingly well thought out, relative to what he has written in the past.
He’s not alone in that assumption. John Carmack for example, thinks that it is, to quote “obvious that the next round of consoles probably won’t ship with an optical drive at all.”
I certainly hope not, but then I don’t actually own any current-gen consoles anyway.
That’s a bit unfair. While the potential for bias is there, you haven’t shown he actually is biased.
If someone passionately believes in X, it’s only natural that they would also be involved in a business that promotes X.
Edit: Anyway, it’s nice to see Alex saying the same thing about Intel integrated graphics that I myself was saying here several threads ago.
Bruce
You think the default presumption should be assuming no bias when a CEO of a company makes pronouncements about the future of an industry that run counter to conventional wisdom but do imply his company is well positioned for future growth?
Validity of arguments should be evaluated solely on their own merits without regards to source. You may, in addition, question the motives of such a person, and if their argument is invalid and you think that should be apparent to them you can question their candor and/or judgement, but that’s really a side issue.
Bruce
Dude, you so totally fail at business and economics. Since you pride yourself on following the industry I consider this pretty damn hilarious.
Oh, I’m quite aware that many people in the industry don’t follow my moral prescriptions of behavior.
Bruce
I agree with him that it is all about the community. And even for solo gamers the community will become important for shared/moddable content as well as Spore like interaction between solo gamers.
But another huge upsell for console manufacturers is that it allows them to control their communities. The PC is open by nature and players may be all over steam one month and off to the next big gaming portal next month. But a console limits your players to your services, there is no way to jump to another deal that has undercut you by $5 a month without a considerable investment.
Im not saying its a good deal for the players, but from Microsoft and Sony’s sperspective thats a very big deal.
The logic is interesting, I just don’t buy the conclusion.
He’s intentionally leaving out a bunch of factors that make the consoles work:
- Level Playing field: The game works on whatever version of the device you use, and delivers a consistent experience.
- In the living room: Doesn’t interfere with use of the computer as a productivity device.
- Lateral utility: It’s not just my game machine. It also plays movies. Heck, I can download movies for the thing! Although this wasn’t a major factor on the Wii.
I love the PC. But I just don’t believe that it will ever again become a primary mass-market gaming machine outside of MMOs.
It’s possible that the MMO model will become the primary model eventually, but it won’t be the next generation where this shift occurs.
Well I think he’s right that consoles aren’t long for this world, but not because of his reasoning. Dedicated gaming consoles will disappear as computers are increasingly commoditized. Computers get faster and more importantly cheaper every year. In a couple of years everything possible will have a computer built in and they’ll all be “fast enough” to do whatever you want. That’s not to say that the enthusiast market will disappear; much like stereo equipment today you’ll still be able to buy a very expensive pimped out computer, but the advantages to doing so will be barely noticeable.
Console type games won’t disappear, and traditional game mechanics won’t entirely disappear either, although I think he makes a strong point (copying from raph et all, but still strong) about community and adding online elements to traditionally singleplayer games.
Just because a disc with data on it may never enter the retail channel in the next generation, that doesn’t mean that retail can’t and won’t participate.
April? Had any of you heard of this?