Zogby says Kerry on the Ropes

So I went over to race2004.net and pulld their Zogby polls for the swing states. His polls (last couple of weeks on all of them) don’t match the rhetoric:


Strong Bush
MO Bush+5
NC Bush+5
WV Bush+13

Strong Kerry
IL (not polled, but kerry has clear lead)
MI Kerry+6
MN Kerry+9.5
NM Kerry+13
OR Kerry+10
WA Kerry+9

Weak Bush
AZ Bush+1
CO Bush+1.5
OH Bush+3
VA Bush+2.5

Weak Kerry
IA Kerry+3
NH Kerry+3.5
PA Kerry+3
WI Kerry+2.5

AR Even
FL Kerry+.5
ME Even
NV Kerry+.5
NJ (not polled; even in other polls; party has serious scandal problems in-state; suspect other polls are GOP trying to trick Kerry into spending money there)

If I had to pick today, I’d say “Bush will get the popular vote due to his crazy level of red state support, but Kerry will win the EC due to his better appeal to independents.”

Don’t mess with Zarathustra’s denial.

Applying the above to the EC calculator here:


Kerry 260
Bush 236
Undecided 42

Kerry either would need FL or 2 of the 3: AR, ME, NV.
Bush would need both FL and 2 of the 3.

For all intents and purposes, Zogby polls show a tie or a slight Kerry lead.

Bush has significantly improved his position, of course, but when you throw in undecideds always breaking against the incumbent by 2 to 1 or so he’s still in big trouble.

Kerry’s not in very good shape either, but his supporters don’t claim he’s an unstoppable juggernaut of truth and the American way in the face of 50/50 polling.

Again, based on Zogby, the big news this cycle:

ME is a tossup.
MO isn’t.
WV has flipped entirely to the GOP - I guess the Culture War finally beat the Civil War.
NM is apparently now a safe Democratic state.

AZ, CO, OH, and VA are trending against the GOP.
WI (and possibly PA) are trending against the Democrats.

Political bombshell just waiting to explode:


Oh, I thought they were laughing with me… my face is red :oops:

You think Kerry will win?

Soon, we’ll see who’s in denial for 4 more years.

You think Bush will win win he’s (barely) on the losing side of the swing states? It’s too close to be confident anymore.

What I love about this site is its contention that Kerry throws like a girl.

Well so does George W. Bush

And oddly enough, so does Duante Culpepper of the Minnesota Vikings, who’s apparently like 6’6, 260 pounds of pure fag.

You know WV fought for the Union, right?


You know WV fought for the Union, right?[/quote]

Yes, and the Union is going for the Dems. That was the point.

Steve, I hope the pic with Garcia was chosen on purpose, because you know… if you want to talk girlie men throwing a football… you know… HE HAS A PLAYMATE GIRLFRIEND… which we keep hearing about - all the time…


He’s a very manly QB, uh huh. Terrell Owens says so.

You think Kerry will win?

Soon, we’ll see who’s in denial for 4 more years.[/quote]

I think any incumbent hovering around 50% has a lot of problems.

I also think that the likely voter models are deeply flawed as something like 2/3rds of new registrants are Democratic.

Since the polls are hiding Kerry’s strengths I’m more concerned about Republican voter disenfrachisement like the kind of BS they were trying to pull in Ohio this week. My worry is that this gives the Repubs a lot of room to pull Florida style nonsense as it won’t be as obvious.

They’re not allowed to register to vote at the polls?

Is this normal procedure?

Two articles from Zogby:

Young males souring on Iraq - fear draft: http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=871

Race is still Kerry’s to lose: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=873

Sticking to a 10 year old law and then relenting and being more lienent to allow more registration forms is a Republican disenfrancisement tactic? You’re in deep man.

When the law is flat-out a violation of the Voting Rights act?

Honest question here, how is specifying the requirements for a voter registration form a violation of the Voting Rights Act?


Voting Rights Act of 1971
42 U.S.C. 1971

No person acting under color of law shall . . . deny the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relating to any application, registration, or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified under State law to vote in such election.