There is no primary in recall elections in CA. There will be over 100 candidates to choose from.
I thought I remembered that as I wrote that. But remember that Arnold won the last time there was a recall.
Yeah, that was discussed up thread. Arnold won because there was no primary. He would never have gotten the Republican nomination, and hadn’t been involved in Republican politics at all, so his only public profile was as a celebrity that lots of people liked.
Jenner is not Schwarzenegger, and has no base of support that I can tell. She’s not nearly Republican enough and no Dem will vote for her.
In addition, Newsom remains quite popular and the state has gotten more blue since the last recall, not less.
It remains to be seen if there will be a significant Dem challenger.
She’s not Schwarzenegger, but she seems already to have become the de facto GOP candidate for the election, and that could snowball or at least consolidate her appeal to the GOP, who will do anything to own the libs, up to and including putting a trans person in office.
But I expect/hope you are right that she wouldn’t beat Newsom in any case.
As near as I can tell, she’s the only declared candidate at all at this point.
Remember when Newt Gingrich was the Republican frontrunner in the 2016 election? That was fun, wasn’t it?
EDIT, my bad, this page shows a list of currently declared candidates. Not a single other well-known Republican, other than Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego.
We also can’t rule out Randy Quaid, who has expressed interest in running. He could be a formidable force! /s
Democratic[edit]
- Luis Huang, candidate in the 2020 Irvine mayoral election[57][58]
- Armando “Mando” Perez-Serrato, business owner[59][60]
Republican[edit]
- John H. Cox, businessman and 2018 gubernatorial runner-up[61]
- Brian Domingo, 2018 gubernatorial candidate[62][63]
- Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020)[64]
- Caitlyn Jenner, reality show personality, transgender rights activist[65], and former Olympic athlete[66]
- Daniel Mercuri, candidate in the 2020 California’s 25th congressional district special election[67][68][69]
- Robert Newman, 2018 gubernatorial candidate[57]
- Doug Ose, former U.S. representative from California’s 3rd congressional district (1999–2005), 2018 gubernatorial candidate[70]
- Laura Smith, 2018 gubernatorial candidate[62][71]
- Errol Webber, candidate in the 2020 California’s 37th congressional district election[67][62]
- Nickolas Wildstar, 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, 2018 Fullerton City Council candidate, 2020 Fresno mayoral candidate[62][57][72]
- Major Williams, candidate for mayor of Pasadena in 2019[67][62][73]
Well, California special elections have their own clown car mojo. I think she’ll fare better than some rando state senator or whatever. Maybe a big tech billionaire will throw in though, so I guess it’s early days.
Also here is a tidbit of wisdom from Jeremy Irons.
No one has to beat Newsom.
If Newsom gets recalled, then he’s out. He’s not on the ballot.
It’s basically two votes… first, whether to recall Newsom, and then a vote for whomever will replace him. I think the second vote is just whoever gets a plurality of the vote.
I didn’t remember exactly how it played out last time. It was the same ballot though, I think. First you vote yes/no recall, then you vote who else you would want. So the last time I voted ‘no/Bustamante’ (Cruz Bustamante was Lieutenant governor at that time).
I’d forgotten the votes were separated in that way, but let me amend my statement to say I hope/expect that a) Newsom won’t be recalled, and b) if he is, a Democratic nominee (maybe the Lt Gov again?) will win.
But last time around was a shitshow/clown car and maybe this will be too. Schwarzenegger was a far more competent and sane individual than the GOP typically embraces these days, it seems.
Yeah, the campaign was, confusingly, “Vote ‘no’ on recall and ‘yes’ on Bustamante!”
It’s a mess.
I had forgotten it worked that way as well.
As I noted up thread and was told no, the mainstream GOP hasn’t jumped into this recall effort like they did with Davis. And I don’t think they will unless some mainstream (by that I mean existing position holder in the GOP) decides to make an effort of it. The Arnold wasn’t a big win for them, and he wasn’t controlled by them.
And Newsome hasn’t pissed off his demo constituents like Davis did. Doubling peoples DMV fees is a pretty stupid idea ay anytime.
I don’t think the people behind the recall effort have enough money to move the needle. I’m not even sure they care. Their mission is accomplished.
By the way, in case you’re wondering about the GOP “frontrunner” and what sort of Republican can get elected as mayor of San Diego in modern times, it’s this guy:
Faulconer holds many socially liberal positions.[4] Faulconer supports a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who live in the United States.[28] He also supports same-sex marriage and had campaigned against passage of Proposition 8.[70] In 2014, he participated in and supported LGBTQ Pride Month.[71] In 2019, the mayor met with San Diego community leaders to voice support and encourage members of the U.S. Congress to vote for the Equality Act, a bill that would extend the Civil Rights Act to protect against discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity.[5] As a part of his previously mentioned effort to address homelessness, Faulconer announced he was working with local faith leaders to provide shelter to LGBTQ homeless youth.[72][73] Following the killing of George Floyd in June 2020, Faulconer pushed for a ban on the use of chokeholds by the San Diego Police Department.[74]
Mayor Faulconer has described himself as pro-choice on the issue of abortion.[75][76] Responding to protests against anti-abortion legislation, Faulconer made a statement saying that he would not restrict abortion rights in San Diego and would oppose movements to restrict abortion in California.[77] He supports use of capital punishment.[78]
He would never win.
Cox (the last time we saw him) also wasn’t as crazy as the other states’ GOP candidates either. CA GOP has traditionally been (a little bit) more on the libertarian side of the aisle than the batshit crazy wing infesting most state GOP institutions.
But it’s good to remember that Ahnold’s plan to balance the State budget was to sell State lands and lease them back (nice racket if you can get it). It was Brown who actually created a Surplus (not just balancing the budget) for the rainy day fund which Newsom has expanded.
Nice little cap on Brown’s career, that term.
Brown’s comeback was awesome. Devoid of any further political ambition at that point he was just “stand back and watch me govern”.
It’s time we call Jenner’s run what it is: a publicity stunt. She could have gone on Celebrity Rehab or Dancing with the Stars, but instead chose to mount a pretend run for governor.
By his second term he was also right of the state legislature, a switch from his first go round as governor.
I don’t know, by telling pointless and easily disprovable lies it does appear she’s making an earnest effort to succeed in today’s GOP.
Any Joe Scho polling this low would be begging for coverage.
But because her spawn are reality TV “stars”, the mainstream media can’t get enough.